5 major geopolitical risks 2015 years-Bloomberg


This map shows the level of geopolitical risks in developing countries. Yellow indicates moderate risk, Orange, and Red high-very high. The developed countries had not taken into account, reports Bloomberg.

Critical events beginning 2015-a sharp reduction in crude oil and a surge of violence in the Middle East — probably will continue throughout the current year, and that appears in the new konfiguracipi geopolitical hotspots. Reduced overall prices for different types of natural raw materials may harm the countries, whose economy relies on the use of its rich natural resources.

Company AON Risk Solutions (a division of British AON Corporation PLC, specializing in risk management) today published its annual political risk map to answer their customers ' frequently asked questions about where on the planet is more dangerous or less dangerous business.

Good news not so much. Only seven of 163 developing countries reduced their levels of political risk compared to last year, and the situation in most of the rest of this list, in particular Zimbabwe and Laos, leaves much to be desired. Twelve countries this year, the situation is extremely tense, among them Libya, Haiti and Pakistan.

"During the past 12 months the State indicators of risk were simply disastrous," said Curtis Ingram, Vice President of political risks, "it looks like a yawning abyss, from which came many creepy characters"-Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, Nigeria, Iraq and others.

"AON" and research company "Rubini Global Economics", founded by Economist Nouriel Roubini, rated each country on nine categories of risk: currency and capital status, laws and regulation, political interference and violence. The report covers only the developing countries. Member countries of the Organisation for economic cooperation and development (OECD) are excluded, as are the benchmark in studies. Here are five factors which, in the opinion of the rapporteurs, it is worthwhile to focus the mind in the coming months.


Low oil prices and international sanctions, imposed because of a conflict with Ukraine, had its negative effect on the Russian economy. The murder of Boris Nemtsov, the leader of the opposition and Deputy Prime Minister of the Yeltsin era, what happened last week is not mentioned in the report, but this event, exacerbating internal political conflict, naturally worsen the performance of the country.

According to a report on political risks instability in Russia will "continue to cast a shadow on the entire region, in the form of subsequent difficulties for its market partners are Belarus and Kazakhstan. Researchers see that "the situation related to the possible freezing of the conflict in Ukraine and the subsequent strengthening of sanctions" is unlikely to be resolved in the coming months.

Oil and other raw materials

Russia, Venezuela and Iran are under scrutiny and subject to sanctions, as are the territories with the largest concentration of oil deposits. This is a problem also for smaller States such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are unstable market fluctuations national currencies and conduct ineffective financial policies makes economies of very sensitive to market shocks. African countries, whose economies globally depends on the mining and energy sectors, such as Angola, Cameroon, Congo and Nigeria, are faced with decreasing income and possible reductions in costs.

Conflicts and violence

The terrorist organization "Islamic State" in Syria and Iraq and Boko Haram in Nigeria remains the main threat to the stability of the region. Porous borders between States and undeveloped institutions of civil society in the countries of the Middle East and Africa make the nation especially those countries prone to violence

Interest rate

Even a slight increase in interest rates by the Fed will cause increased global competition for capital and lead to increase the cost of servicing the external debt.

Middle East and North Africa

Countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, should get a boost to development, the report suggests. However, in all three countries, the risks are assessed as high or very high due to their very low level of security, because they are neighbours of Iraq, Libya and Syria

A similar situation is observed everywhere. Private insurance companies for decades, offer compensation to help companies smooth out the severity of the risks of doing business in emerging and developing markets. But the problem of unstable regions, like people, like "travel". Turkey and Mexico, for example, can be especially politically or economically vulnerable due to problems in the Middle East and Latin America. But, as the OECD members, these countries were not considered in the report.

Original on Bloomberg

Translation Of Andrey Sabadyr


Leave a Reply