Many expert assessment of the 2015 season, representatives of Crimean tourist industry should be made on the basis not of the real calculations and evaluation of various factors, and straightforward, and assuming that will like to hear Aksenovu and in Moscow.
A couple of weeks ago, I gave a fairly optimistic assessment and forecast to 2.5 -3 million real tourists. More of this it's really tough now Crimea figures to digest. Logistics haven't debugged and this could lead to shortages of food and goods and thus to higher prices, which are already so above Moscow at least 30-40%.
As in Crimea I don't buy bananas. They are bad and are on 100-120rub. per kg! But in Moscow the bananas almost in 2 times cheaper, like so much else.
Fairy tales about 4-5 million tourists are required only for knocking out budgets. And why else? Well, not so many people would come.
Very serious factors that may bring down the Crimean season is real decline of incomes of the population, growing unemployment, strengthening of the ruble and the insane prices of foodstuffs in the Crimea. Alas, it is a reality.
In addition this year there will be no cheap alcohol. Well who said bad drink good Crimean wine, champagne or cognac? Alcohol prices would grow at least by half compared with last year, if not tripled, and buy alcohol vacationers will be problematic, because not every point you will be able to sell it on the basis of the requirements of Russian legislation.
Arriving in Moscow and Moscow once Stoppers can point out that they have become less really less. Thought it seemed to me, but after talking with his friends realized that the people dispersed from Moscow and began to drive less. A marked decrease in the number of labour migrants in the subway and on the streets there were very little.
Communicating with your friends can say that some are forced to abandon many joys, including holidays. Will spend summer at the dacha. Those who have the means will allow, will go to Russian resorts with the right approach can be quite budget. It's a myth that all dream of summer. According to my friend, who owns a travel agency, many Russians prefer to rest in the Midland of Russia. But now opportunities for travel by car? Many and very interesting routes with good infrastructure.
Russians welcomed the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. Hope for lower prices, which unfortunately is not yet happening. But those who have kept their incomes at a sufficient level, prefer overseas resorts.
Turkey and Egypt have already put anti-crisis prices. And rest there easier and more comfortable. Not all fans of Crimean or Krasnodar remarkable nature.
Rising ruble introduced confusion in summer plans. Reduced prices for foreign vacations will allow those who now spring is planning their summer vacations, make choices still not in favor of Krasnodar region and the Crimea, and the usual IM already overseas resorts.
So the owner of one of the travel agencies in Moscow Svetlana told us that literally in the last week, customers of "alive". The reason is the significant decrease in ruble-denominated prices for tours.
If the year of Ukrainians in Crimea came to little, and this year they almost didn't come. Rail and bus services covered. The refugees, who found that year as tourists, this year also did not come. Hostilities subsided slightly, the money ran out, and many are already trying to arrange his life on Russia's mainland.
So this year the Crimea could be in quite a difficult situation.
Honestly, I don't understand why you need to increase the flow of tourists per year at 100%, even after the recession. This is extremely unreasonable. Crimea must develop qualitatively and not quantitatively.
Now on the peninsula with tremendous prospects for restructuring the economy and the labour market. Crimeans are accustomed to working seasonally. This suited them. But now, when many were unable to continue their small hotel business, becomes the question before them-what to do? Some of my acquaintances, Crimean 45-50 years trying to return to the factories that now Russia tries to recover. Youth, seeing material opportunities on the Mainland for work rushed.
One of the serious problems this season-the workforce. Earlier in hotels, restaurants, Commerce, working Ukrainians. Now they need to obtain permission and patent, but not everyone has the money for its acquisition and physical ability to pass all the exams and medical examination.
So the season of 2015, despite the tremendous efforts of the Cabinet Aksenova, can be extremely weak.
Unfortunately, the Ministry of resorts and tourism of Crimea, about which I wrote so much, has not made any real effort. According to the representatives of the Crimean tourist industry, they had not seen any practical steps from the Ministry. Organized idiocy with the closure of beaches, the classification of hotels through the company "Crimea-Horn-hoof", on which party Czerniak of "Unified Russia" not even scolded for such a scandal and second.
Meanwhile, the unsinkable Minister Yurchenko, which guide the Cabinet all promise to kick for the failure in the work, told reporters this is the anecdote of the Crimean in response to their request to comment on the criticism:
"Three in the derHme on the ears, one popped up and said: Let's vynyrnem and meet: not vibriruj, not race."
This is the Crimea Tourism Minister, sorry but rare … and. It is a pity that can't make it in person. How can we develop the Crimea with such? According to my source, it will once again try to kick up to 22 April. And if not expelled? They say it's quota of the State Council. Maybe that's why Chernyak and Yurchenko a liquid? Or they don't drown by definition?
So in Crimea season really in jeopardy. Remember me phrase-"it is better to lose with a clever, than with a fool. What would I do this?
But people still come. Russians in Crimea and love there is for that. For its beauty and originality.