Andrey Zubov: situation in Russia is reminiscent of 1905. And the Kremlin chooses the path into the abyss


Russian Professor Andrei Zubov, who was dismissed from the MGIMO due to allegations of inadmissibility of occupation of Crimea, in the program. TV

"Studio West with Anton Borkovskim" told of an impasse in which Putin has driven himself, and the failure of "the Syrian misadventure, according to Espresso. TV.

The current situation reminds me of the year 1914, before tragic shot member of Mlada Bosna Gavrila principle (the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne by the Serbian terrorist Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophia was the pretext the beginning of World War I,-ed.),

The situation is very serious. I can see the direction in which events could develop and where they might lead. Ultimately, the unmanaged process and to war. This is possible if Turkey and Russia and will go to the escalation of the conflict. Unfortunately, Russia has already went through for revenge. This is a very bad way. Revenge is not a spiritual and not a Christian and even not a political thing, it's like the actions of teenagers from the back. If you then begin, and they started-bombing the civilian population of the Turkish towns and villages of northern Syria, if amplified by Russian troops, totaling airplanes equipped with missiles if air-to-air missiles, then it is understandable that at any moment the conflict may occur, then another conflict, well, what will happen then. Now in Moscow mountain-political scientists say we are, they say, let the nuclear bomb in Istanbul.

At one time the Kremlin "prophet", Vladimir Zhirinovsky, which is pretending to be an escaped with "kanatčikovoj dacha", but actually reads the secret aspirations of top officials in the Kremlin, proposed a "hit" in Tbilisi. And they do hit, although after a couple of years.

I always look forward to prudence, I understand that people have a cynical interests, even if it is bad, but they are there, but prudence, when man will not himself doing bad … The escalation of the conflict, ultimately, is very bad for the ruling group in Moscow. And Russia is infinitely more vulnerable than Turkey because Turkey is in the system of global alliances, including NATO. It is a country that is going to join the European Union, while in its intermediate structures. Behind it, the League of Arab States. But Russia absolutely alone, she is now isolated from the rest of the world. Even her allies, by type of China or Iran, where there is a dilemma still prefer West. In the current situation, the war is a disaster for Russia. Even a small war is a disaster for Russia. Proceeding from its own interests, even our overbearing should not go to the escalation of the conflict, there is still one point: Turkey is one of the main economic partners of Russia. When the EU and NATO, sanctioned against Russia, Turkey did not support them. And now, when Turkey with turnover at 35 billion dollars off from the Russian market, it means a sharp deterioration of the Russian economy. Turkish gross domestic product will drop by half, and Russian-3-4%. This means that we people will live worse, it means that the intensity of social protest will increase, as you know, we have a protest of entire groups of working people, primarily by truckers, from what I heard, they are supported by the St. Petersburg port dockers, in my opinion, this is reminiscent of the year 1905. It seems to me that this is the path into the abyss.

And what are the possible aggravation of geopolitical objectives on the Syrian track? Russia wants to return to the Middle East, or is it just the United States bidding?

I think it's an impasse. Putin tries to keep Assad to maintain influence in the Middle East. But Assad is a political corpse. In Syria there is no future with him, in principle it has no future, nowhere. So this is the absolute political mistake! I tried to explain, wrote a great article in "Novaya Gazeta". I think many in the Kremlin realized if did not understand before that, that this is a dead end. What counts Putin is quite incomprehensible. Even in Ukraine, prospects for its policies look more real than in Syria. Ukraine could hope for revolûcionalizaciû the South and East, on the establishment of the "new Russia" thank God this didn't work out, but in Syria, even such a chance is not. Sunni majority, to which also belong the Kurds and passionately hates the Assad regime. And anyone who supports Al-Assad, is their enemy, including Putin. But that's when it will understand Vladimir Vladimirovich? …

The impression that Putin goes beyond its wandering star, is feared to hear "krymnaša" and "konstantinopol′naš" and "ierusalimnaš". This is not a geopolitical behavior is irrational behavior comparable to the behaviour of the 19TH and the first half of the twentieth century, when the leaders are not thinking about the real consequences of their psycho-emotional processes.

I think you are wrong, talking about the first half of the 20th century. Even the most nefarious leaders, Stalin and Hitler-type, yet as thought-they were almost mathematical calculations. They had expected to win, someone make an ally where use "fifth column" and try to take over the world. In the end, it didn't work out no one nor the other, but it was developed very seriously. Behind and Hitler and Stalin was not only their moronic geopolitics and moronic insolently, but were very clear military-strategic development. This is not the case here. The horror is that Russia, and forgive me for the sake of God, but also Ukraine, govern the amateurs. People who are not trained as capable. And Hitler and Stalin were also not educated, but they were simply legitimize sataninski brilliant politicians, as ingenious evil. In our case, it's not brilliant policy and more amateurs. Anyone off the street could do what makes Putin. Power, especially the power of absolute, which is Putin, she turns her head and, according to the old saying, corrupts absolutely. Therefore, such a person believes that he could do anything, the Lord God, and each word is transformed into reality. Actually it is not so, of course, and such, coming on top of power by chance, in fact quite ordinary people, as a rule, sad end. Know me humanly very sorry for Putin. I know he did an awful lot of nastiness and for Russia and for Ukraine and for the whole world, but I'm sorry, he's still the man, he had a mom, God gave him a chance to be born, but he went the wrong way. But he is still alive, meaning he still has time to come to their senses. I would really like that he did it.

Is there any chance for Putin to get out of the situation?

Of course. Syria and IGIL opened for him the very successful opportunity. World attention has shifted to Islamic terrorism and Putin really had become a member of this coalition, to abandon its foolish plans, get yourself some conditions. This would have involved any bases in Latakia, could become the protector or protector of the alawite, create there if not the State, the autonomous province, similar to the autonomous province of Kurds in Iraq. For it would have gone and America, and the West. And at the same time it was necessary to solve the Ukrainian problem. It can be solved quite elegantly, that is, to make the world was satisfied that Ukraine was satisfied partially, but its territorial integrity would be at least formally restored and further negotiations would be a thing of subtle diplomacy. But, unfortunately, the Kremlin has been unable. It has two types of weapons-chutzpah and lies. And with their help, and using real weapons, he tries to solve all the world's problems, but it is a dead end. Even some ribbentropy with molotovymi were more skilful diplomats … Unfortunately, intelligent person, whom I knew from student years, he was engaged in a completely inaccurate because cases totally lost their abilities of a good diplomat, he has always been. Although they do not apply in the present circumstances, for the one who wants to defend Kremlin power.

This situation forces him to do horse face and hear strange statements on those or other international summits or meetings on UN type?

Both he and our representative to the UN good diplomats, Churkin, but now power from them as required, and it is impossible because they are forced to lie. Diplomat never lies! The diplomat could not say the truth, it may have something to hide, and vice versa, in this vypâtit′ and the art of negotiation. But lie, when everyone knows that lie is not diplomacy. And what Lavrov now does, means that he agreed not to its role. I would in his place would have filed the resignation is already a long time ago, when there was a discussion of the annexation of the Crimea, in its place, I would say that this is a violation of all the treaties, it is not in the interests of Russia and I cannot be complicit in this. But he went the other way, losing yourself, as well as Churkin at UN.

Churkin has amazed us so cynically calling white black and black white.

Although, believe me, it is in General a good diplomat midovskij, Soviet school course. But even that Gromyko did not allow. He though was "Mr no", he said "no" and could refuse, but he was a tough negotiator, but he was not an ordinary liar. And present our diplomacy is a lie. And, incidentally, our generals in Syria also lie when they say that nothing we bombed. The market was bombed, killing 40 or 60 people is terribly easy, killing children, women. So it is, they say, is a provocation, shot. My father is a retired Admiral. I always said, if the military is lying-he is no longer military, with him you have to clear the shoulder straps. The honor of the uniform makes you or telling the truth, or keep silent, but not to lie. What our generals lie-they no longer generals. Incidentally, as far as I know, sometimes lie and your generals. Unfortunately, it is a trouble of our poslesovetskogo space and we are together, not in the sense that there should be one country, but together, supporting each other, must of the Soviet, world gadostnogo come out.

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