Andrey Zubov — historian, doctor of historical sciences, believes that the Russian authorities should exercise maximum restraint now.
Events of today is a Russian aircraft, AIR DEFENSE downed Turkey and possible consequences of this is a very dangerous phenomenon. In this situation, Russia should exercise maximum restraint. Gorâčečnye actions of the Russian authorities can lead to the development of unmanaged conflict with the most severe consequences, up to the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Turkey, respectively, between NATO and Russia.
There are less dramatic, but also very dangerous. The first consequence: the plane, as it is known, fell to a location not extremist, and, so to say, supported by the West, part of the Syrian opposition. The opposition, which is in this case in the North of Latakia, is largely composed of representatives of the so-called Syrian Turkmens — in other words, the Turks living in Syria. These people are highly patronized and protects Turkey — just as Russia patronirovala Russians living in Crimea and Donbass. I do not rule out (though I hope it is not), that the pilots of the aircraft may have been killed by these rebels. The situation, of course, terrible. But remember that for these people, starting with September 30, targeted airstrikes Russian Aviation forces. And they, in fact, have the right to revenge. No one can count on the fact that the people being bombed, will sit idle. The world community many times warned Putin that it is necessary to strike the IGIL, rather than antiasadovskoj opposition, but Putin has ignored these warnings and even asked: "where is the opposition?" now in the opposition and crashed the plane. And if Putin seemed to show, will retaliate, bomb attack, thereby significantly complicate the situation in Syria and further isolates himself and Assad from all the anti-terrorism community. Therefore, he needs to show tremendous restraint, you can say come yourself on your hands.
Another very important point. I've heard that already appeared allegations that Turkey would be punished "economically" and especially the Russians would not be allowed to rest on Turkish resorts. It is extremely dangerous for the Russian authorities path. Let me remind you that, in response to Western sanctions against the top Russian leadership Putin has introduced a so-called "antisankcii", which was hit by the Russians — caused a rise in prices of basic commodities, have led to the disappearance of the qualitative goods and so on. And if the answer to the military adventure in Syria, to which the Russian people are not exactly authorized the President, will become ordinary limit for ordinary citizens (and in Turkey, as in Egypt, rest, ordinary citizens — Putin's friends prefer a more refined holiday), this will certainly worsen the social climate in Russia and cause discontent of the people. Because this war started without its consent, this war is not popular, and if as a result of this war, people would rest on their favorite resorts, the consequences can be quite serious. Therefore, I repeat, the Russian authorities now need to show maximum restraint, any sudden actions are dangerous. You need to take a break, calmly weigh the pros and cons, calmly chatting with our allies in the anti-terrorist operation, Putin called France and the other countries allies, is to discuss the situation with NATO, as well as to ascertain the reasons why Turks shot down the plane.
Although, in General, the reasons are clear. Very well said at the Carnegie Endowment, that "greatness," Putin, who is trying to assert, everywhere was faced with another "greatness" is Erdogan. But for Erdogan and Turkey Syria, especially its northern part, which is the same as for Russia-East Ukraine, and any action by the third power in this territory very painfully perceived by Turkey.
Russian authorities, bearing in mind all these parameters, calmly and leisurely reflection, you can take some decisions, but in any case not to take drastic action that could lead to a chain of irreversible effects. Remember that Turkey, firstly, a very strong country, and secondly it NATO means war against Turkey is war against NATO, this is World War II. I really hope that with all the avantûrističnosti of our foreign policy, we will not go.
A situation when wrong from the very beginning — because Putin has deceived the international community, arguing that fights the IGIL and actually from 9 10 strokes applied to Sunni moderate opposition — now commented so painful and even dangerous to our country. We wrongly involved themselves in this adventure, and the denouement comes very quickly.
