Rabbi Avraham Shmulevich, President of the Institute (Israel) in the program "Studio West with Anton Borkovskim" on Espresso. TV presented his forecasts for the escalation in the Middle East and how seriously this Boomerang will hit the regime of Putin
The impression that the Syrian crisis acquires has vseplanetnyy. Little match, podnesennaâ v svoe Vremya another Hezbollah Vladimir Putin threatens to turn into a powerful fire.
We have entered a period of global redistribution. If you look at the political map, then every 25-30 years it changes dramatically. And the events in Ukraine, Russian aggression against Ukraine-the first signs of this process: borders, which were held after the 2nd world war, no longer reflect prevailing realities and will be reviewed. Before the second World War 1 match that lit the whole world and led to global redistribution, were the Balkans. Now such a hotbed will be the greater Middle East, including Syria and the Russian Caucasus. And this process emerged.
I understand that Putin respects the history, he has advisers on military history, has he not understood that the processes which he began, very fraught, primarily for him.
I think that the current Russian leadership least formed for all the centuries-old history of this country and went very bad school. In Russia there are very bad with advisers, there is now almost no specialists on the Middle East and Islam, they remained few and most of the excluded from power and from the Kremlin. With regard to military advisers, then things are bad enough. I think they don't really understand what is going on in the world around them and even in their own country.
And what is the reaction to Putin's gesture, which he scared all political humanity?
Firstly, Putin, attacking Ukraine, annexing Crimea and declaring of Novorossiya, stated that the previous rules of the political game are that international law has ceased to have force and now how to read between the lines, it is right. But he does not understand that if international law lapsed, and borders and areas of influence ceased to be inviolable, precisely according to the same rules and will play with it. Putin arrogantly believes that Russia, as during Soviet times, one of the most powerful armies in the world and he can get into any adventure. It is also not calculated that what happens in Syria, this is not a war for Assad. This part of the world war of Islam-a war between Shiites and Sunnis. There are centers of power in the Islamic world who compete for hegemony and Putin his efforts in Syrian Arab Republic wedged between more powerful players that can severely harm him.
He, in fact, became the enemy of all Sunni world, and he is extremely influential and representing the majority in Islam.
In General, Yes. Let me remind you, the greatest war that goes in the Islamic world, this is not a war with the Crusaders and the Europeans, it is not even a war with Israel, it is a war between Shiites and Sunnis. And this fight Bole 1 300 years. All this war has not faded. And between these currents are actually more differences and intransigence than between, say, Orthodox and Catholics. What began as the remnants of Arab socialism of Assad's regime, has grown into a global front Sunnite-Shia war. And in all this meat Grinder Putin tries to climb, not realizing where he climbs. The vast majority of the Muslim population of the Russian Federation-Sunnis. And it's all such a mixture of gunpowder and gasoline, laid under the foundations of Russian statehood, that if Putin would continue its intervention in the conflict in the Middle East, then the mixture zapolyhaet right under his chair.
We remember Soviet song: revolution have a beginning, not the end of the revolution. "
Yes, this song is very fun by Brezhnev's Politburo, when imposed troops in Afghanistan. And I think that if Putin would delay this old Russian song, he finishes as well as the Soviet leadership or Yeltsin, who got involved in the war, it very much blood and Russians and Chechens.
At the beginning of our conversation you said that Putin is weak, in which osinyj hive climbed, but the goal is what he was? He began feverishly bargain with the White House, but he said that his envoy Dmitry Medvedev even adopted will not. As far as I understand, America seriously angry at the Kremlin's activities in Syria.
Here the case deeper. Dictatorships have their own logic. Putin has built a rigid dictatorship by force. The number of law enforcers in Russia more than ever in its history, more than it was under Stalin. But the dictator cannot do anything more except to fight. Look at the history of Putin's reign, what achievements could be called?! Absolutely no. None of the reforms was not carried out, the raw material component only increases, the economy is becoming more primitive. Of all the "achievements" for the whole post-Soviet period, only four wars: first Chechen war three Yeltsin and Putin-second Chechen war with Georgia and now war with Ukraine. He doesn't know anything except how to fight. Putin now has often been compared to Mussolini and Hitler. Putin has to some extent failed in Ukraine and he needed another theatre of war. He can't stop. Know when a ferret gets into the Coop, he kills all the chickens, because he could not kill. Exactly and dictatorial regime, he could not fight. So Putin fell into the trap logic development of native mode.
And what can threaten any time soon? I understand that Saudi Arabia does not forgive such things. Things like this aren't very forgiving and Israel. Almost the whole world held its offense and the answer may be serious.
Here it's not a grudge, it's logic and interest. The forces that support and arming Saudi Arabia, Putin and Russia have already declared Jihad, Saudi Arabia stated that starting to supply ground-to-air missiles and anti-tank missiles antiasadovskim rebels, America also stated that it begins to intensively arming Syrian free army and supply it weapons on a large scale, it certainly can be used against both Assad and against the Russians. Turkey has made some very strong-worded statements on the border of diplomatic protocol and simply stated that Israel will be to shoot down Russian military sites if they pose a threat to Israel. Israel already shelled force Assad, who came to defend Russia. I think that Putin has brought a few things. First: he underestimated the reaction of the West, he's thinking, as dictator, thinks everything in the outside world decides the President as head of State, just as he decides everything in Russia and Obama decides everything in America. Obama is, of course, a catastrophic President in terms of foreign policy, it is the weakest President for all of American history in their terms, and Putin agreed that Obama can twist the rope, thinking it the whole of America. But Putin did not understand how democracy works. Obama manages America 10-15 per cent at the most. In the United States there are powerful forces that adjust the power of the President. And I think, more precisely, this is already happening, these forces will somehow emerge.
The geopolitical imagination of the Kremlin is one thing, is there such a thing as a harsh reality. When Putin portrayed "bad španu" it endured, counting the unreliable boyfriend, but not called strategic enemy.
I think that is a very cruel joke with him the experience of war in Ukraine. Because in Ukraine Putin provided and strategic and tactical alternatives-Ukraine behaved very passively. One can hardly imagine that Ukrainian forces will go on the offensive and the Russian part of the doctorate, who invaded the Donbass and, moreover, will take over the Russian-Ukrainian border with further offensive, for example at Rostov. Neither Ukraine, nor in Russia does not consider such a scenario, though, why not. I was very surprised by the conversation that I was with your military experts, all with one voice said to me, why not Ukraine declares war, because then in full force will operate Russian Aviation. But sorry, military space shield Russia created in Ukraine, in Ukraine have been established and have ballistic missiles, which are in service and the Russian Federation, which can fly, not something to New York, actually they created, but also to Moscow, Sochi and Rostov. Nobody in Ukraine is not thinking in that direction. Putin thinks that the Syrian opposition will behave exactly the same. Muslims, who are now fighting with him, began to fight the Russians in Afghanistan, when they were Flint 19-century rifles and they defeated Russia. And they crave to face head-on with Russian forces. They crave a move war on the territory of Russia, and Putin used to being due to the experience of Ukrainian conflict that such possibility is not considered. I.e. in Ukraine it could do everything I wanted and did not bear any punishment in Syria it will be totally different, but it probably does not understand.