Renowned Israeli political scientist, specialist in the Middle East, President of the Institute of Eastern partnership in Jerusalem, Rabbi Avraham Shmulevich told Russian Monitor on the prospects of the Middle East conflict.
English Monitor: recently a lot of forecasts of analysts and experts, who say that the fate of the "Islamic State" in the near future will be resolved by military means. Do you agree with this?
As in any serious war, here it is difficult to make explicit predictions, and war is really serious. With the IGIL cope without a broad ground operation is impossible. The West does not want this operation. Russia was willing to spend it, but first, the Russian army and economy too weak to fight for a long time in terms of Syria, in the face of the Syrian deserts and mountains. And secondly, Putin on his obtuseness managed to quarrel with absolutely anyone could only quarrel. And to date Russian troops simply did not get to Syria. Although initially quite graciously took America to such an option to end the IGIL hands Russia. But now, thanks to the absolute unpredictability and incompetence of the Putin regime, this option does not work. The Turks could do it themselves, but the Russian intervention and here blended with all the maps and did not let Turkey intervene in their army. They were going to do it in late autumn, but on October 30, the Russians began its operation in Syria, destroyed the Turkish offensive, and practically speaking on the side of the IGIL. Arab Coalition remains, but their combat effectiveness in question. In particular, the army of Saudi Arabia itself is not well demonstrated in Yemen. In addition, IGIL too sit is not fools: they have a fairly high level of planning and organizing. You could even say that this operation surpasses all other IGIL terrorist Islamic structure that existed before. I think that may in response to the IGIL again begin ground offensive answer wave of terror in Europe. The situation is complicated by the fact that they have printed a large number of forged documents. They captured a Syrian pechatny Dvor and modern printing equipment, which allows you to make any documents, including passports, to the highest level — the level of State documents. Western media cited data of German and other intelligence services about ten thousands of fighters IGIL who hit with this wave of refugees in Europe. One of the Lebanese Ministers warned British Prime Minister David Cameron that on average two out of every hundred migrant is bigoted and active supporters of the IGIL, he said the militants "Islamic State" conduct recruitment in refugee camps and in schools, drawing on its side not only adults but also children.
You also need to understand that their ideology IGIL extremely nice to Muslims. Therefore, attempts to Russian propaganda stubbornly call it not "Islamic State", and DAIŠ (though these are one and the same) look pretty funny. Because this "Islamic State" is Islamic education, rather than any other. Another thing is that not all Muslims recognize the true interpretation of Islam that TOU have the IGIL. In particular, the fact that Al-Baghdadi had declared himself Caliph. So, what exactly is the Caliph should rule Muslims — all agree with that, but not with the fact that Al-Baghdadi is the Caliph. But in case of a major ground operation number of the fanatical supporters of the IGIL only increase. Furthermore, there are many IGIL no less cute guys — the same Al-Qaeda, which is now struggling with the IGIL, so that the problem of Islamic terrorism with the disappearance of the IGIL is here to stay. In addition, the very appearance of the IGIL is evidence of much more serious and profound geopolitical processes. That would lead to a redrawing of the map of the Middle East not only, but also the entire world map.
English monitor: can I take it that it is the fact that various Islamic factions simply compete for the honor to establish Islamic Caliphate?
No, it's not quite so. No one except the IGIL, the same Al-Qaeda, the Caliphate did not declare, as most of them consider that the time is not yet ripe Caliphate. Therefore, this ideological "Polyana" is entirely under the control of the IGIL.
English monitor: as far as I understand, the establishment of the Caliphate should be marked the capture of Jerusalem by the army of Muslims?
Jerusalem in Islam is only an optional value. Yes and it's not just about the apocalyptical disputes. In fact, as any serious historical processes, religion is often an easy way to disguise some underlying and far more down-to-Earth concerns.
English monitor: Why the agenda of political Islam, was released before the issue had not arisen?
In brief, the main concept of Islam is that Muslims should rule the world. Since Islam is the only true religion: all other false religions, and they should be subject to Islam. Non-Muslims have a right to exist only if they have the status of slaves-conquered "dhimmis". Such a concept has always existed, but because Islam last 300 years was forced constantly to retreat under pressure from the white (European) civilization, part of which is Russia, of course, this concept was irrelevant.
Historical paradox is that, before wishing, daemon political Islam gave rise to Russians themselves during the Soviet period. It began when the Tips began to form and train the Palestinian terrorist movement: all terrorist methods of struggle that apply modern Islamic movements — this had taught them at one time Soviet instructors. There was a KGB General Saharnovskij, Deputy Head of the KGB, who oversaw this direction. The second factor is when the Tips penetrated Afghanistan and suffered a defeat there.
It is necessary to understand that the SOVIET defeat in Afghanistan was a historic event for the entire Islamic world, who retreated, suffered defeat after defeat for centuries, roughly since the defeat of the Turks near Vienna. The Muslims for the first time managed to inflict a serious defeat for the Europeans. And they asked themselves: why, if possible once, cannot be the second?
You have to understand that Muslims today dominates the medieval, in fact, that power is physical, military subjugation. Therefore, there are many people who believe that he has come a moment when you can finally recapture the golden age of Islam. The second is that religious Islamism provides a convenient wrapper for global tectonic processes including affect the Islamic world.
This primarily concerns the change of elites in the Islamic world. Islamic States extremely are authoritative, they have no social mobility, there is no social elevators. This state of medieval type, lacking all political technologies emanating from Western civilization in the 20th century, that in Western societies, stabilize society and made it unlikely the forcible change of power, and on the East are absolutely unknown.
When the 50-60 years of 20 century by Islamic countries, a wave of revolutions of the so-called Islamic socialism, they brought to power modes of Qaddafi, Saddam Hussein, Hafez Assad, Nasser, etc. These revolutions were an expression of the change process. Today, the expression of this process is political Islam. And if we look closely, that will see that spike fight the same Al-Qaeda was directed not so much against the West how much against Saudi Arabia and other oil monarchies, assign yourself a fabulous oil revenues.
IGIL, in turn, is a project of the Iraqi Sunni elite. In Iraq, the majority of the population is Shiite, but since British rule of the Sunni minority there. When the Americans came, overthrew Saddam, established democracy there, then on the first elections, of course, won.
Sunni baasistskaâ elite proved had been ejected from the political and economic life of the country. It is therefore not surprising that these people raised the banner of political Islam in the framework of the IGIL.
Another important factor to consider is that Moreover, there is a change in the world economic and political formations (Kondratyev theory, we shall proceed now to the new economic order). And this process is imposed the period of decolonization. This process also applies to Russia, as all borders that were are in the greater Middle East is the artificial borders, padded or British and French or Russian (in the greater Middle East and the Caucasus is included). These borders do not meet neither economic nor ethnic realities, and one can only wonder at the fact that they lasted so long. Because only those borders are stable, that are natural.
Is coming and is already a global redistribution of boundaries and radical Islam is a convenient political wrapper that allows you to implement very specific economic interests. It is therefore possible to say that to date, the world is as close to the next world war, if not already there. And those processes, which is the voice of the IGIL, indicating a change in the entire world order, who was still in the colonial era, Europe and Russia laid in the Arab world, the Middle East and Central Asia.
Therefore, we should realize that if the IGIL and come down from the historical scene, the conditions that led to his emergence, including the idea of political Islam, will not disappear. It concerns and ideas of Jihad, and the idea that Islam should dominate the world, as well as the fact that in the East lives a huge amount of disgruntled by its position of people who do not see and do not know any ways to implement those goals, which they consider worthy, except the path of violence. So instead of the IGIL appears something else.
English monitor: you're talking about World War III, but usually the term "world war" means war in full force is involved. You want to say that Europe's involvement in the conflict will only increase?
Actually, if we refuse to Eurocentrism, then come to the conclusion that the world war is already underway. We believe that from a historical perspective, it is important to only what Europe or the West is involved in a broad sense. If Europe is not involved, then it is malosuŝestvenno. But this is not the case. You have to understand that the epicentre for today world war is a conflict in the world of Islam. And the main conflict for Islam — it's not even a conflict with Israel, the Arabs and the conflict that goes since the rise of Islam, the conflict between Shia and Sunni.
Look: there is already a streak of fire, a strip of hostilities from Pakistan to the Mediterranean Sea, off of her protuberancami to the West up to Libya, the Tuareg of the Sahara and Mali, South is up to Yemen and Nigeria, and to the North is in Turkish Kurdistan, Caucasus (Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Karabakh front) and the Northern Caucasus, where twenty-five years, when, later, goes guerilla war against Russia. This is just the beginning, the band will expand.
English monitor: not very clear, and Russia and the vnutriislamskaâ war?
This situation overlaps an irrational desire for Putin to do away with the effects of the biggest geopolitical (in his own words) 20-century catastrophe — the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore, Russia and got into this war, like an elephant in a conflict shop even more precisely, like an elephant on a powder warehouse where are already ready to use bombs and shells. Putin seemed to completely do not understand where he got that one in the war on the side of Islamic sectarian Shia (actually on the side of Iran), while having a great deal of Islamic (100% Sunni) population in their own country.
While the Shiite Iran to Russia, there are so many claims and old bills, which the Kremlin did not even suspect. Therefore, the conflict can be described as the initial stage of World War II, already involving Arab countries, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan's Shiites. Russia already was involved in the funnel. Retracts into it and the West.
English monitor: what is the present and future role of China? In particular, some experts suggest that the Chinese could be for a variety of reasons, are interested in strengthening the IGIL..
At the moment, China is not interested in participating in the conflict. In addition, his whole economic model is built on trade relations with the West. In the case of the global world conflict involving China all its economic ties will be broken off, that would lead to economic disaster in China itself — the internal market still too weak. Therefore Chinese in any war are not interested. Although in the future, in the event of an escalation, China will most likely not be able to stay away.
English monitor: Than Putin's gamble in Syria threatens Russia?
Putin's gamble to face Russia. Russian war in Syria is different from any other war, the same of the second world war, the invasion of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or the wars, which led United States. The objectives of these wars were quite clear and understandable. And that's why Russia vvâzalas′ in this war, which Putin wants to achieve in Syria, not yet identified no one — first of all, Putin himself. Therefore, the situation is completely unpredictable. Why Putin climbed into Syria, it seems to me, is not fully understood and himself. Take the same his sensational confession that he did not know who the Turkomans is the largest Syrian existential, the Chief object of interest of Turkey in Syria (actually, this Anatolian Turks caught after the partition of the Ottoman Empire under the rule of the Arabs). If he does not have the slightest idea about the theatre of war in which Russia found itself involuntarily, the farther away you can expect absolutely everything.
And while the fact it turns out that the RUSSIAN FEDERATION vvâzalas′ in a global war between Shiites and Sunnis, having exclusively Sunni population, extremely weak economy in the eyes of the deteriorating socio-economic situation in Russia itself. When the muffin-ish roll at the world and once on the brink of war with Turkey.
I have the impression that the Kremlin perform the order in Iran. Because the only one who gets to benefit from all of this, if not to take into account the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, is Iran.
English monitor: you in one of his interviews, conducted parallel with the situation before the first world war.
There really is a good parallel to the Balkans before the first world war, where it also went the processes of redistribution of colonial boundaries. Shortly before the Balkans freed themselves from colonial dependence on the Ottoman Empire. Border, who were cut were artificial, had a similar problem with the elites. And the conflict that began there, has turned into a global world war.
So now you can take that world war already underway, Europe only in full force until engaged. But this situation may change if the level of involvement of Russia in the conflict increased or jihadis will move to a new level of terrorist warfare.
English monitor: what do you mean under the level of the involvement of Russia in the conflict?
The danger is that Russia is totally lost the ability to objectively evaluate their place and position in the world and once again seriously overestimates her powers. During the Crimean War, Nicholas I sincerely believed that his military power allows him to defy the England and France, and actually showed them the ultimatum on the Division of spheres of influence in the world. But when the combined British-French fleet entered the Black Sea, it turned out that the Russian fleet is fit only to sink it in the Sevastopol Bay, while the war was still quite long. Putin is now in the same situation as that of Nikolai i. very similar analogy is with the second World War when Hitler also harbored illusions about its military might. His own generals, desperate to convince him that he overestimates his forces back in 1939 year organized a conspiracy against him — unfortunately, unsuccessful. Hitler's war began, lasted six years, and during this brief period, destroyed world.
It's the same with Russia: it may well get involved in a war against the whole world, taking yourself in Shiite allies. However, compared to the Wehrmacht, the Russian army is very weak, therefore, faced with the overwhelming technological superiority of the West, Russia likely will lose much faster than the Third Reich: Bill will go for weeks. Although, if the West begin to procrastinate (as he has already done in 1939 year), there is a chance, albeit slight, that Russia will be able to mobilize its military and technical capabilities, and then the war drags on. However, even without this number of victims can be very large, because Putin has repeatedly made it clear that will not stop in front of the use of nuclear weapons. For example, there is information that now surrounded by Putin seriously discussed the issue of nuclear strikes against the positions of the "Islamic State", inter alia, Rakka, the capital of the IGIL.
Cannot be discounted and the possibility that Islamic radicals will move to a new level of terrorist war, will step forward from those who taught them more tips (and which they used so far). And will begin using portable chemical, bacteriological, nuclear weapons, dirty bombs and other attacks on infrastructure in Europe, the United States, Russia, Australia, Japan.
