Putin is a talented political rogue, but squeeze it can and should be. Notes about another "Crimean War» Russia and possible sanctions against the aggressor.
The innovation of the Crimean War-2, is that in the course of its development, for the first time together with the military general staff of Russia specialists-PR, level of professionalism is in no way inferior to the famous Kremlin puppeteer-polittehnologu V.Yu. Surkov.
These masquerades dress ups, infiltration "secret trails" in Crimea armed "artists" from Russia, carefully hiding their faces — all elements of the infamous Imperial performance, painting, and not even the built-in scenario of military operations for the annexation of the territory "the brotherly Slavic state. Despite some creativity this joint "production" generals and political strategists, they badly missed the mark with the era and ended up in another century.
In the twenty-first century, it is impossible to make people believe in masquerades Glâjvickogo sample from the second world, where even the younger students have cell phones with cameras capable of clearly and which capture and deny any besstyžee lies. In the end, the Kremlin propaganda delusion did not persuaded, except zombirovannoj's internal audience, cut off from the "extra" information about Ukraine, widely known throughout the rest of humanity.
However, even in the West, there were some "useful idiots" who tortured by doubts as to the origin of the "English-speaking military personnel unknown country, in Russian the form without insignia and moving on Russian armored vehicles.
This idiocy is reminiscent of the old joke where a psychiatric patient can't guess "arhisložnuû" the riddle: "La" starts at "guška" ends; Green, sits in the swamp and kvakaet … (Probably, the correct answer is "bland green man"?)
A sudden declaration of independence of Crimea
In the first instant sensation that the Crimean puppet decided to fool their Kremlin puppeteers, and try to establish itself in its sovereign rulers hypostasis of the Crimean State. It seemed that they are about to removed from the script, a derogatory act on Crimea in the composition "mother Russia" as just "one of" 90 counties. However, this option has proven implausible — too not by rite for the Crimean "Supreme", "Goblin", "fly so high geopolitical thoughts …
Apparently, the real reasons "sudden" Crimean independence need to look deeper. It is more likely that Kremlin strategists at the last moment realized that if Crimea goes directly from Ukraine to Russia, Ukraine will be able to file multi-billion dollar international actions towards Russia over the seizure of the Ukrainian State property in Crimea.
The Kremlin realized that a legally more secure situation if Crimea at first, at least "on hold" peace formally in status as a sovereign State, separated from the metropolis. In this case, many times less than scandalous would look like if the objects of State property of Ukraine on the territory of the breakaway Crimea become the Crimean same property.
Well, then, the status of a sovereign State, Crimea, together with prihvačennoj State property of Ukraine, you can safely attach to Russia. Thus, the Kremlin using focus-with the Crimean bystroprotekaûŝej pokusa independence becomes a "bona fide purchaser" property stolen from "the brotherly Ukrainian people.
Putin undermines global stability
Putin is undoubtedly the most talented politician of our times. Take this depressing beshrebetnost′û after Reagan West, Putin and then beats it played at many of the world's political stages. Its basic methodology is to create serious problems for the West, and then chaffer and market Norway's important concessions in return for promises to solve them. Putin highly creative and often uses unconventional methods that have stalled the unwieldy and raznogolosoe the "civilized world".
Capture the Crimea, not to mention the continuity of this adventure in the continental part of Ukraine, is a disaster not only for regional, but also global security. Russia's unilateral refusal from fulfillment of obligations of the Budapest talks about žul′ničeskom about this "great power" to its own signed commitments.
Just sneezed on Russia's own signature, which President Dmitry Medvedev sealed the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement in 2008 year. However, Russian sabotage its own signed commitments, materializing as a fait accompli, while questioning the reliability of signatures of other bona fide signatories. This applies to almost all the documents signed by Russia.
For example, the real results of the same Budapest memorandum, no clear conclusion can be drawn that out of 4 's signatory States, only Ukraine had fulfilled its obligations: the deadlines it obnulila its nuclear capabilities, among other things, at that time, the third in the world by number of warheads. As a result of the occupation of the territory of Ukraine, Russia permanently impaired and sign the other two signatories — United States and Great Britain.
Provoked Russia discrediting signatures States under international treaties, even more so with the participation of the States of the world leaders, unleashes global stability, lights the green light for power redistribution of the existing borders and ultimately increases the likelihood of World War II. If the West does not want to get involved in the third world, and sanctions to curb Putin's ambitions should correspond to the level of this critical threat to mankind.
One of the most effective retaliatory sanctions of the West could be overlapping the Bosphorus to vessels flying the Russian flag, as well as chartered vessels for the transport of Russian goods. Naturally, under the ban get all Russian military court. But it is much more sensitive than a ban for warships, will be blocking the movement of oil tankers, zapravlâûŝihsâ terminals in the area of Novorossiysk. This authorization may hurt on the supply of Russian oil to world markets.
Legally justify such sanctions enough is not easy, but if there is nothing impossible for Putin, the master of the "impossible" should be and its Western potential ukrotitelâm if they do not want to be eaten.
Arguments before the international community in favor of "Bosforskih", you can line up as follows: (a) the Treaty of Montreux temporarily suspended only with regard to Russian courts; (b) for all other countries, the Treaty of Montreux continues to operate; (c) all restrictions imposed on the temporarily passing Russian ships will be immediately removed as soon as Russia to comply fully with its own commitments under, interrupted her, the Budapest memorandum.
This provision can be added another paragraph: "as well as when Russia to comply fully with, broken, her own obligations arising from the agreement between the EU and Russia, fastened by signatures of Medvedev and Sarkozy. This add-on does not violate common logic proposed sanctions because violation of both signed documents Russia happened on absolutely identical to the fraudulent scheme, in the same Black Sea region.
Arguments for Turkey
Turkey, like Russia, was once an empire, however, is not as lucky as its northern opponent — to the global superpower role Turkey has never dotâgivala. However, Imperial nostalgia she survived. To begin with, it's hard to find a modern Turk, who, in the depths of the soul, not the Black Sea would be "inland sea", Ottoman power over that, reluctantly, have to share with some Russian gâurami, only "a couple of centuries ago," appeared on the shores of our Turkish seas.
On the other hand, in response to perennial rudeness "old Europe" against Turkey over its entry into the EU, Ankara has been forced to adjust their development vector associated with the European future and try to occupy the niche of the locomotive of the Muslim world.
This world, throwing a dangerous challenge to the West due to its excess is common, however, "lame" in the field of modern economy, especially military rank closely behind in creating new technologies. Bezneftânnyh of Islamic countries Turkey best copes with these tasks, that to a certain extent reinforces its claim to the Islamic leadership.
So far, neither East nor West has not yet determined the choice of Turkey. Therefore, the West remains a good chance for her involvement in the Western sanctions against raspoâsavšejsâ unpredictable Putin's Empire.
Among natural-historical rivals/enemies Iran occupies an important place in Turkey, located on the threshold of the "nuclear club". Rivalry for influence in the region (as well as for leadership in the Islamic world) between the regional powerhouses, will probably intensify.
Therefore, the Western "work with Turkey on Bosporus may seem promising for Ankara itself: firstly, by participating in sanctions to weaken Russia, Turkey will increase its political weight on the Black Sea; Secondly, it will strengthen its position in regard to another important regional player is Iran; Thirdly, the rapprochement with the West, if it behaves honestly make unnecessary attempts to Turkey deeper foothold in the Islamic world that was provoked by offensive disregard of old Europe.
To prefer Turkey joined the Western sanctions on the Bosphorus, it should offer some kind collective mechanism to carry out the envisaged sanctions: for example, the entrance to the Straits to the East and West could patrol together with Turkish NAVY warships of NATO countries.
In these negotiations could play an important role voiced by Turkish leaders on several occasions its role as guarantor of the rights of a sibling of the Crimean Tatar people. Connection at any point in the process of negotiations with Ankara authoritative leader of the Crimean Tatar people, Mustafa Dzhemilev might prove very useful.
Supports the Putin regime
The considerations given in this publication do not pretend to be fully in line with international law, although their pathos is aimed at the eradication of grave violations of the law. The only international authority on Earth with the legitimate right to qualify as an aggressor country, maliciously violated international norms, is the UN Security Council.
The effects of the recognition of any aggressor countries can go quite far for the hero: from comprehensive economic sanctions before sending in a zone of mass violations of the armed forces of the United Nations. The big question is whether it is possible, within the framework of international law, using legal mechanisms to stop the aggressor, tramples on key international standards? And the answer is "Yes" and "no". If the offender is not particularly powerful State, or otherwise influence the UN Security Council will be able to return his legal behavior.
But if the offender is a powerful nuclear power, in addition to providing the right irresistible "veto" in the Security Council, according to the hopelessly outdated UN Charter, you won't even be able to condemn his unlawful conduct: "veto" always protect powerful aggressor not only on effective sanctions, but even from the resolutions of the Security Council, criticizing, unwanted privileged perpetrator.
Risky militarist foolhardiness, op′ânennogo Imperial Putin syndrome is based on several pillars:
(a) unity of the Russian electorate around the shape of the dictator in the face of a brash, non-competitive and proimperskoj propaganda;
(b) the most powerful nuclear missile arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union collapsed, as well as from Ukraine and Kazakhstan;
(c) the huge reserves of energy resources through the sale which, basically, is filled with the Russian budget;
(g) lack of ability to coordinate decisions among Western democracies;
(d) the right of veto in the UN Security Council that legally separating Russia from sanctions, legitimizirovannyh this authoritative organization. Another pillar of the regime, are
(e) is always available to meet Putin's needs close to purses (other in Russia just doesn't happen) billionaires.
Monitoring Western law-enforcement oligarchic capital typically stored at the same West to verify legality/illegality of their origin, can detect various corruption schemes in which mired the Putin regime.
Of these "pillars", only with a nuclear capability of Russia West, for the time being, will not be able to do anything. The rest of the pillars can be arranged according to priority and work with them. First of all, Western leaders need to urgently overcome the pathological beshrebetnost′ and learn not only to negotiate quick immediate decisions, but also abide by them.
Unable to agree among themselves, Western leaders should be used, if possible, comprehensive embargo for Russian energy resources, including the closure of the Straits; Support for Putin and his aggressive course among their own population will wane as Russian oil gazozavisimogo blowing the budget.
Separately, you should consider the "assassination attempt" on the permanent Chair and a Russian right to veto in the UN Security Council. In UN history already there was a time when the legitimacy of Russia, as a permanent member of the Security Council with the right of veto, to put it mildly, was not apparent. We are talking about the moment of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Russia was granted the right to adopt by consensus the permanent Chair of the USSR in the Security Council.
Russia was not identical to the USSR nor square, neither on the configuration of the internationally recognized borders, neither the population nor on its ethnic composition and, strictly speaking, was quite another, sharply different from the Soviet Union. From the womb of a deceased Soviet Union due almost fifteen new States, but somehow none of them, except for Russia, was not seen as a successor to the USSR in the Security Council.
If we are talking about inherited nuclear capabilities, in addition to Russia, the former USSR formed two more nuclear powers — Ukraine and Kazakhstan — with capacity exceeding, at that time, striking power of certain "old" permanent members of the UN Security Council.
In the light of the foregoing, the West should be much better prepared for the next similar conflicts with the borders of Russia, which will happen at the next turn of history: at one point, Russia, absorbing the Crimean peninsula, will change its geographical borders that will put on the agenda of the world community recognition/non-recognition of a new configuration of its borders, which differs from the internationally recognized borders, with which it participated in the permanent members of the UN Security Council. You can close your eyes and you can prepare well and give legal battle hardened violator of international law.
Could be a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the State, like the Phantom, not having fixed configuration in space?
David Beritashvili, political scientist; published in Georgia online