Four options for the future of the Crimea


What to do with the Crimea is an issue which now is relevant not so much for Kiev to Moscow. In the end, not for Russia she clashed with the first world to just hang for six months in a patriotic euphoria. Too fragile this substance. Agitated people are extremely easy to move from "cheers" to "off".

Peninsula becomes something like signage-see adversary, not only returned, but also enriched and rasplodili. Crimea becomes a battleground with all sorts of national traitors, which it will be important to win the showcase model of excellence. So no one is left in doubt: Russia-not the British Empire some, which in India just did, that built the railroad and the self-immolation of widows is banned. The peninsula consisting of mother Russia is the the hobbičij. "-Comfortable.

For this little local affairs. Yes, pensions, salaries would lift the index, podlataût road. And then what? For the daily life of an ordinary krymchanina all these items, like askorbinka, are nice and helpful, but the only real treatment is no substitute. And heal the peninsula should be long and seriously. Primarily from the meaninglessness of their own existence.

Shopping hub

Any talk of historical justice historian can cause a nervous TIC. Because of the confusion arises from the starting point. Up to what date was chaos and entropy, came civilization and gingerbread?

If you look at the history of the peninsula deeper than the two and a half centuries, we can find that for centuries, Crimea existed in a commercial format communication node where exchange goods went Mediterranean civilization on the products of the wild fields. Relatively speaking, jewelry, amphorae, wine, cloth changed from nomadic peoples to fish and grain, horses and slaves. Crimea in face of Chersonesos and other trading cities very long served as transit-communication function and for centuries was a kind of large area of Porto Franco.

Trying to revive this Crimean matrix today isn't easy. Because since the arrival of Russian troops at the end of the 18th century the peninsula was unified economic people "together with Novorossiysk province. Then there was mixed together along with Kherson, Yekaterinoslav (Dnepropetrovsk), Bessarabia, and Stavropol governorates, as a minimum, excluding the territories of Kuban and Donbass. In isolation from mainland Ukraine Crimea did not live up to the last referendum.

Even if you forget about the water and electricity, the purely logistically Crimea with Russia links the only ferry service. Suppose, for example, will build two Bridge-Road and rail-in Krasnodar Krai. But will this be enough to return the Crimea status communication hub? And does this not closed the window of opportunity is the status of the occupied territory, which the peninsula can give the world community and the probable trade embargo by Ukraine, which continues to regard the wording of the law on occupied territories?

In the meantime, the reality is that the traffic volume through the Crimea for 20 years decreased in 2-5 times. Some of the functions took Odessa and Nikolaev, part-Novorossiysk. If you look at the map of the international transport corridors in the Black Sea region, it becomes clear that virtually all modern communication routes bypass the peninsula.

Edge of orchards and vineyards

More recently, 80% of Crimean hawkers and shuttle were with Soviet diplomas of higher education. Crimean industry built in the Soviet era, barely survived the last twenty years. By the year 2001 was completely eliminated Crimean light industry, not enduring competition with cheap Turkish and Chinese imports. Almost gone into oblivion dairies, production of tinned fruit and vegetables and juices. Today find in Crimea, local juices or compotes. A huge proportion of those funds, which today spend in Crimea holiday leaves in other regions-food producers, drinks, napkins, souvenirs, etc.

Time lost the dairy industry of the Crimea, respectively, no dairy herd. The same situation is with gardening-it was the base for the food industry: If you don't have a canning factory-you do not need gardens. When the gardens, unlike grains require cultivation to grow fructifying wood need several years. In Crimea have managed to preserve the winemaking precisely because we couldn't major wineries. There were losses of acreage of vineyards, but not as dramatic as in gardening. The situation with plants is compounded by the fact that if you build a factory from scratch, they need shots, and in the Crimea stayed only one Technical University-and the one in Sevastopol. If carrying engineers from other areas of the country, they need to buy flats.

Order on the chest of the planet Earth

Another option is a tourist resort. All the more so in the minds of the older generation still alive memories of the sanatorium. Remember clogged resorts and crowded beaches, although all this was possible only in the conditions of the planning system, where happy have options ranged between Abkhazia, Krasnodar territory and the territory of the peninsula. The resort of Crimea was made ceiling in the mid 1980 's (eight million tourists, of whom two million lived in sanatoriums). In the post-Soviet era "half members" in the best years ranged from five million marks. Besides the order of 70% of tourists to the peninsula went to the Mainland of Ukraine and Russia remained about a quarter of all visitors. Even if Moscow subsidized flights on the peninsula, it will not solve the difficulties that remain in the peninsula.

In fact, to bring the peninsula to the format of the civilized resort, bol′ševistski have to endure holiday polyps last 20th to the ground, and then … Yes and the unclear status of railway communication with Crimea (Kiev still had not decided whether it will retained in full) narrows the space for optimism. Besides the short holiday season (three months) expected makes it the cheapest no-earned in these 75-90 days money many residents of Crimea living the rest of the year.

Today the Crimean tourist indicators are adequate infrastructure. Duration of rest-resort have dropped from 24 days (standard length of tour in Soviet time) until a couple of weeks. From year-round resort peninsula finally became a summer and beach. Conditions for winter (including and) rest of Crimea also no.

The idea is that the window of opportunity in this area, a single-takeover (or revival) of mass treatment. In its time, the Crimea and became the most important centre of tourism it is because here rode TB treatment elite and intelligentsia. Even Livadia Romanov bought only because the wife of Emperor Alexander I was ill from tuberculosis. A prerequisite for such development in theory: Russia's population is aging, objectively, the retirement age increases, there is a demand for healthy longevity. Not by chance the neighboring Turkey has long mastered this area by investing serious money in it.

But the industry has a second bottom. Any tourist region-even with the background of the sanatorium is primarily the territory of headwaiters, maids, guards, sellers, receptionists and taxi drivers. For ambitious young people is not the most attractive picture of your own future. In Soviet times Crimea was not rolled into this "serving" niche only for one reason: he never fully resort and tourist region. The entire recreation was, on the one hand, not business, and social program of the USSR-only paid 20% resting, and the rest of the blanket State or trade unions. On the other hand, the main task of the Crimea was very different-an extremely closed and not nahodivšaâ reflection-Statistics Branch.

Unsinkable aircraft carrier

The entire Soviet period the peninsula was one of the most militarized regions of the USSR. He served as a major naval base, defended the country's dominance in the region. Actually, this region's status was no stranger-he and prior to that has long been a springboard to the essential quest of the Russian Empire to the Straits.

In 1980-ies only the strength of the Black Sea fleet was about 140 thousand people. Add here a dozen military airfields, objects, space communications, mission control station, the largest air defense system and the Army Corps. In Crimea was even storing nuclear warheads.

To this can be added the abundance of military industries, sharpened under the MIC. The largest enterprises in the field of instrumentation located in the Sevastopol, Evpatoria, Crimea, Feodosiya. Military shipbuilding and ship repair-in Sevastopol, Feodosia and Kerch.

According to the Crimean Economist Andrei Klimenko, real figures related to the Defence Office and the military industrial complex, the number of employed people in it, production is never displayed in open Soviet statistics. Censorship has worked brilliantly even in directories and encyclopedias of the time there is no mention of the many huge defense industry enterprises with extensive design and research institutes. A real contribution to the MIC in the economy of the Crimea in the Soviet period have yet to be explored. So anyone who is trying to rebuild the Crimean economy must understand what exactly he rebuilds.

Not coincidentally, foreigners who came to Crimea, limit departure for most destinations, in addition to those that fought on the South coast. In Sevastopol even residents of Crimea could get only passes and to Balaklava could not get without skipping even Sevastopol. From the industry point of view, the peninsula was industrial and scientific centre for military priboro and shipbuilding. And only in third place was the civic role of Crimea-as one of the centers of the food industry, specializing in the processing of fish, vegetables, fruit and grapes.

Today, the military destroyed cluster. The same Sevastopol is currently at an impasse: jobs scarce, wages low, young people looking for an opportunity to leave the city. Almost no industry, the population survives at the expense of trade. In the minds of inhabitants (with the exception, perhaps, of the older generation) Sevastopol is perceived not as the biggest or as the most architecturally accurate and beautiful Crimean city-which it certainly is, but as a dead-end and rail against and prospects. In recent years, the contribution of the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol consolidated budget was only 11%. Even jobs Navy gave the city a bit-transition policy "on the anthropomorphized new look armed forces resulted in the enterprises of the BLS work today mainly naval pensioners.

But the revival of this industry is not inconsistent with the status of the disputed territory of the peninsula. Unlike resorts or industry, there is no need to examine the conditions of demand or objective conditions. Military sector fits perfectly into the Russian logic autarchy and local Crimean isolationism. If expelled from the Crimea somehow self-regulating logic of supply and demand, then the only alternative becomes a sphere which does not need any market mechanisms.

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