Official participation of Russia in the struggle against the IGIL in Syria could bring her military casualties, as well as threatening a surge of terrorism in its territory.
Vladimir Putin's victory in the Federation Council on the proposal on the use of the armed forces of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION abroad gives him the powers of the Commander in Chief and almost carte blanche to any agreed with Syrian authorities, military operations. So far only airline. Denying personal ambitions and demonstrating the intolerance of terrorism, Russia may be more to lose than to win. IA "Notepad" sorted out what threat poses to Russia invading the Middle East conflict.
Symbol of what a proposal Putin Sovfed, concerning the Syrian conflict, became the official representative of the President of the upper House-Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov-he is concurrently the President of the Russian Federation in the Middle East and Africa. Just a few hours, the Russian side informed all partners and allies of the decision, and then struck the first blow.
Treatment with the proposal of the President and the Federation Council's decision on the use of Russian armed forces in peacetime-legitimate process, appropriate military doctrine of Russia (article 102 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation). A decision on that matter in SF may be adopted by the majority of votes, but in this case it was approved unanimously. Recall that a similar resolution, Putin received in the spring of last year, when it was assumed that the Russian army will need to conduct a military operation in Ukraine, in particular, in the Crimea.
Until then, Russia, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have injected their troops (peacekeeping mission) in the year 1992 in Tajikistan at the request of the Supreme Council of the country. Then in the Tajikistan conflict Central Government headed by Nabievym Rakhmonov and United Tajik opposition with the Chairman Said Abdullo Nuri. From 1993 to 2002 year Russia shipped into the country 179, 5 thousand soldiers.
The threat of terrorism
According to the head of the presidential administration, Sergei Ivanov, requesting military assistance to the country's leadership had asked Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. He also stressed that the military objective of the operation is not satisfying any ambitions, "what we regularly accused" and national interests of the Russian Federation. Probably, in this case, he was referring to the national security, since the number of Russians who are fighting on the side of the IGIL, according to Russian authorities, thousands and the use of RUSSIAN AIR FORCE will help prevent the spread of the ideas of terrorists in Russia.
According to the report of the Committee for internal security, most United States wanting to fight on the side of the "Islamic State" came from the Middle East and North Africa. Among them is leading Tunisia, where 5 thousand people arrived. After go Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In addition, 1700 people among the fighters from Russia and 1550-from France.
Most likely "infestation" ideas "of the Islamic State" exists in the North Caucasus, said Associate Professor of foreign area studies and foreign policy of the RUSSIAN Sergei Markedonov.
-Hardly on the assumption Russia into the conflict any Russian regions will support the opponents of Assad. But you need to take into account that in some ways Russia intervenes in the Shi'a-Sunni relations in the Middle East and on the Shiite side. With the associated risks. In the Northern Caucasus remain terrorist groups, they have not disappeared, IGIL itself began to show some interest to them, he told news agency "Notepad".
With him disagree, President of the Center for strategic studies of religions and politics of the modern world Maxim Shevchenko. According to him, all enthusiasts of the Caucasus, IGIL, sympathizers have gone to fight in the Middle East.
Is a fudge that would allow intelligence agencies with a certain direction to deploy in the Caucasus once again pressure on intellectuals, young guys. I remind that the Caucasus Emirate and its leaders were against the Islamic State. Those few clips of so-called representatives of the IGIL, where something similar to ' bastards with raised fingers are splitting guts, not convince completely in ties with the North Caucasus IGIL. Of course, you've got to keep your wits about, but overall it's a concocted by the subjects, he said.
Russia's participation in the counter-terrorist operation will increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks in our country, said independent analyst, a specialist in the field of international relations Alexandr Grigorenko. However, he was confident that the quick actions of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION regarding the IGIL mean that FSB has already taken this issue on your control.
As previously stated, Vladimir Putin, Russia has already provided military assistance to the Government of Bashar Assad in combating IGIL in Syria. Based in Latakia are Russian planes, two MI-17 and two MI-24. After talks with President Barack Obama United States 28 September, Putin ruled out the participation of Russian troops in ground operations. Despite this, several tens of thousands of troops to fight terrorists offered him Ramzan Kadyrov.
In accordance with the decision adopted in SF, Russia will form in Syria mixed unit of 40-60 aircraft Su-24, Su-25 and Su-34, and also will send two battalions to protect the Russian airbase, said the President of the Academy of geopolitical problems, a doctor of military science Konstantin Sivkov. Aviation intelligence actions, in his view, be limited to using the squadron reconnaissance aircraft and drones. While Sivkov did not rule out participation in the Crimean Russian air force airfield operations.
-It is possible to use airfields in Crimea our long-range bomber aircraft, but in this case, the load would be small, because you will need to fly over the Caspian Sea, then through Iran because Turkey our bombers could hardly miss, said in an interview with RIA Novosti expert.
Possible and the expansion of Russian military capability.
-Russia will bring for yourself-with 300 helicopters (surface-to-air missiles to repel air strikes. IA "Notepad"), as well as additional parts with engineers and radio operators. Perhaps our base will swim a couple of landing ships, for permanent duty will rise "Admiral Kuznetsov" (heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser) would be useful and "Mistrali". This will cause the water strikes the ground. However, the main troops will still remain the BBC stated the "Notepad" independent international relations analyst Aleksandr Grigorenko.
Despite the fact that Russia considers itself the sole country imposing its forces in Syria on a legitimate basis, Russia created an information centre in Baghdad already passes the United States and Syrian military experts all the information about the actions of the RUSSIAN AIR FORCE. Director of the Center for public policy research, Vladimir Yevseyev believes that Russia until the last moment will try to use a minimal amount of their military in the conflict. Thus the country will cut their losses, which, however, cannot be avoided. Solidarity with him and Aleksandr Grigorenko, adding that the Russian army, as an American, moved to the high-tech weapons-drones and drones. The loss, in his opinion, will only be among pilots, but rare and random.
On the territory of Syria continues to operate an international coalition against the IGIL, which includes the United States, United Kingdom, France, Australia and some Arab States, which, according to unconfirmed reports, is about 400 thousand troops and includes different technique. Data on the number of extremist organizations also vary, from 50 thousand to 200 thousand fighters with heavy machinery.
Now Moscow is trying to play a proactive event that enhances any risks, consider interlocutors IA Notepad. These risks, however, allow both win, and poizderžat′sâ.