Why is Vladimir Putin's message was not a word about Ukraine, who can stand behind the investigation of Alexei Navalny on family business of the Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and enrolled Russia in place of Turkey? The browser issues RFI Sergey Korzun replied, political scientist and columnist Leonid Radzikhovsky.
Leonid Radzikhovsky: the most important political event is, of course, still the Russo-Turkish war. I don't know which account, fifth or sixth.
RFI: how is it different from the previous ones?
The fact that the war more in television. Certainly, I present an extremely marginal view (hope its not yet equated with treason), but I believe that in this situation, scary utter these words, Turkey more than Russia.
Language is not rotated to say it. But I will say more accurately: Turkey does not have much options to do otherwise, as I understand it. According to the Turkish side, for nearly a month, or at least a few weeks, the Russian military planes violated Turkish airspace. And the Turks many times on this occasion did Moscow representation. And even Russia has promised not to do so anymore.
It's certainly not a reason to shoot down the plane. Although we know that in the year 1983 Korean airliner was shot down by the Soviet Union just because it violated the airspace of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union no one apologized.
However, from the point of view of modern aircraft, shoot down a reasonable person because he violated the airspace, and even for the fact that he has repeatedly violated it, of course not. But the question is, what did you do Russian planes. While they were engaged in, alas, that bombed the settlements far from the famous IGILa, which in this area, and the positions of the so-called Turkomans. That is the same Turks who live in Syria.
Turkmens fight against Assad and, in General, probably against IGILa. Anyway, definitely not IGILa are allies. That's about as if Turkish aircraft zaletali on the territory of «Donetsk Republic "and bombed it. I would have looked like in this situation would lead Russia itself. I think that Russia could bring down a Turkish aircraft in such a situation.
The Russian sanctions were an adequate response to the actions of the Turks?
If the aim of Russian policy in Syria is to create a broad coalition against IGILa or enter into this broad coalition, sanctions and all the reaction of Russia is absolutely inadequate. Turkey is a NATO member. And taking the diplomatic, political war with Turkey, placing there anti-aircraft guns, which can destroy any Turkish aircraft, Russia closes for the possibility of joint military action by NATO.
If the objective of Russia's policy is to show their ambition, "the unreasonable Khazars», going to show that" he who offends us, three days will not live ", then Russia's behavior absolutely adequately the stated objectives.
In this situation, Putin chose the only possible option for himself: maximally harsh rhetoric. The Turkish leadership is we now have "clique who lost her mind". The last time such expressions were used 60 years ago, for example, the address "clickable" Tito in Yugoslavia.
A message from Putin to the Federal Assembly, many waited anxiously to find out where Russia will move. It became clear to you?
The message I would highlight what we have already said, is unusually harsh words against Turkey. And full of dead silence for address of Ukraine. I understand it like this: Putin wants to at least keep a complete free hand in Ukraine. Namely, leave for yourself the psychological and political opportunity to implement fully those Minsk agreement, which Russia has signed, not which she constantly accuses Ukraine, failure of which the West accuses Russia, and without which the sanctions with Russia won't lift.
In Minsk Russian agreements have only extremely painful and unpleasant para-closure and liquidation of DNI and LNR as independent or kvazinezavisimyh entities. Since Russia is a signatory, with the formally agreed. Putin formally many times repeated that Ukraine is United, that we are in favour of its territorial integrity, the DNI and LNR have become part of Ukraine under special conditions, with special powers, with special rights and stuff.
But one thing to say the words, and another thing is telekartinka, where the creation of Donetsk city descends a proud pirate flag "Donetsk Republic", and this building rises Ukrainian flag. This picture, even if it won't show on Russian television, one way or another to many. The formal elimination of the DNI and the LNR within Russia will be received by Putin majority as severe and ignominious defeat. Naturally, Putin that by no means does not want.
But on the other hand, the situation in the Russian economy is so bad, that the lifting of the sanctions is very important. But the main problem is the drop in oil prices. And there is no lifting of sanctions does not raise oil prices. But even that relatively little is associated with sanctions, apparently for today the Russian economy too hard.
The oppositionist Bulk v. Attorney-General of the seagulls and the business of his family. Serious story, in your opinion?
A very unusual story anyway. Bulk myself very commonly delivers the main investigation, declared the year 2015. Really, it's a sensation.
Russian officials are stealing their children bought for tens of millions of dollars of real estate in the West, although their official salary is a thousand times smaller, it's no surprise, nobody cares, it's the norm.
But Bulk revealed in his words, completely different. Namely, that children of the Attorney-General of Russia had companions gang serial killer maniacs. This is something quite new.
It is significant that the Attorney General has not sued the Bulk for libel, though, it would seem, is obliged to do so. And here's the Bulk sued the Attorney General because he denies it.
It is easy to guess that the Bulk in this case is simply a pawn that he was someone worth.
Who, in your opinion?
The list is not so great. It may be "best friends" of the Prosecutor General's Office is investigating Committee. Departmental struggle between 2020 and SC is well known. This may be the FSB. I do not have enough imagination to imagine who else in Russia is able to obtain such information and more importantly — to attack personally on the Attorney-General in the sore spot: the family is hurt.
This investigation has Vista as trial?
I can't assess the extent to which statements provable-Bulk. Judging by the fact that he filed with the Court, he's very confident. But it doesn't mean anything.
States have the political will, can there be?
For precedents, Putin never surrenders its under pressure from outside. If Putin just put on the table a report on the Gull, and he'd decided he could resolve the issue so as to remove the Seagull. And when it is made public, when it looks like an open pressure on the authorities, and even pressure from the Bulk, evil almost, CIA agent, publicly concede Putin simply cannot.
Soon a Seagull is not otstavât. But it is possible that it is strongly nadlomit his position and after a while — half a year, year and a half — when this scandal anyway under an entirely settles other pretext resignation Gulls becomes possible. The situation for the Gulls are extremely unpleasant. But what Putin in this situation its not deposits, I don't doubt for a second.