We have always said that the Syrian expedition Russian is not needed. This is not our war, unlike the struggle for Novorossiju. That uvâzanie in the Syrian quagmire would create only new problem. And so it happened: conflict broke out (yet non-military) with the Turks.
And here the Kremlin waits for a tough exam. As a fanatic, a new Osman Erdogan. He, of course, the enemy and back beats (as a true-blue son East). Whatever Artyom Hilarious in "Russia, blood umytoj wrote? For Asian blood that lemonade. But for all that this new conceptual, principled opponent Osman. For him, money is not a goal, but a means to achieve the main case life: recreating the Glamorous ports (the Ottoman Empire).
Will survive whether this Russian elite exam, consisting of bablom hunters?
From the press-conference of zaministra defense Antonova remains as it softer? strange feeling. Erdogan has been involved in the oil business IGIL, his face blurred out. The rhetoric of rhetoric reminiscent of Soviet Antonov Communist leaders from Central Asia. Flamboyant lyrics. True figure sounded income IGIL from 2 billion oil trade. dollars per year. When you consider that the oil igilovcy sell for half the world price, then somewhere else so much get their contractors-buyers and retailers.
That is, in the best case, Erdogan's son Bilal has somewhere around a billion dollars a year. Against the background of the profits of Russian commanders and their children figure is modest.
In General, if you believe brednâm rossiânskih propagandists, IGIL produces some vast ocean of oil annually that secretly fills the world markets and trade that left oil almost the Rothschilds with the Rockefellers. In fact, even in the best of times, Syria won no more than 40 million. tons of oil annually. Now, when in the hands of two oil fields were IGIL Syria and a bit of oil in the Mosul region of Iraqi oil production naturally fell. Because Islamic militants cannot use advanced technology, they had little training. Pipeline infrastructure they use. On the largest estimated they have 40 thousand barrels per day. If you consider that a barrel of Iraqi oil on 7.41 scale of OPEC, 1999. one ton, it turns out that the IGIL has approximately 19.7 million. tons of oil per year. Even if the igilovcy sell it for 25 dollars per barrel, they should receive the 3.65 billion dollars a year. But the DEFENSE MINISTRY of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION said about 2 billion. Therefore, extraction of halifatovcev have only about 10 million tons.
This is for the world market drop in the ocean. Two Of Chechnya. So what about the delusional fantasies of regular lizoblûdov forget. Erdogan's family business on nezakonnnoj oil is not very large. Yes and vulnerable: bomb a tower at three oil fields in Syria and Northern Iraq time to spit.
Therefore, the performance is more like a rather helpless Antonova whining. Instead of trying to bring down a Turkish fighter aircraft in response, Èrodagana called bad words, without really any evidence. They say, let the Turkish people decides his fate. In response, Erdogan, of course, may order the translation of Russian mass media, vylezt′ onto the stage and tell the world about interesting classes of the Kremlin inner circle. Well, there's Šuvalove, Gazprom, Rosneft, the State itself. About Gräfe. Of theft on the construction of the cosmodrome Vostochny. About Rotenbergah. Or here's a story about a family Attorney Navalny Seagull arrived on time. They say, you yourself mafiosi. And the whole debate boils down to mutual dispute:
-Shadow trader, gangster! ATS it, Turkish people, UN and NATO!
-Yes you have a snout themselves down! ATU them, Russian, UN and FATF!
WHEN JUDGED ON ITS OWN
See, rasejskoe bosses believed that Erdogan would die from fear if there is the threat of the loss of his family's business. If suddenly disappear shadow income and lost billions. It seems like the guys on the main Turkish coffeepot is judged on its own.
But then the promašečka comes out. The treacherous and cruel Erdogan from another test done. For him, the highest value is not money, and power. And the power is not in itself, but as an instrument for the realization of his dream of creating a new Ottoman Empire. You take him shadow income and he, of course, but continue to pomorŝitsâ the case of his life. This Erdogan in principle different from those for whom power only nahapat′ tool and fill their personal pockets. Erdogan did not make a career on the collapse and the looting of Turkey: he for his Board (without oil and gas) raised the country's industry and doubled its GDP. It is based on textile, apparel, footwear industrialists, manufacturers of parts for cars, mashinostroiteley (Turkish National Programme ship!). Behind consumer electronics manufacturers of Vestel city.
Our enemy-Turk nobody appointed successor. Power does not fall from the sky on it as a trophy. He survived a brutal fight on the road to power, he was able to bend the RAM's horn Turkish Generals-kemalistov. Slabovol′nym and indecisive Erdogan. That he showed in the case and with the Su-24 m, and with the protection of turkomanov, and with a desire to tear off a North Syria (his Crimea and new Russia together). It seeks to build a Turkish Empire-2, and this purpose is not mercenary. Yes, this plan we are hostile, but it is not pilež and not sharing the budget, as in the Russian Federation.
So the attempt to intimidate Glavturka destruction of personal business is moving perhaps elite views about what is right and what is wrong, the opponent. It is an attempt to measure the enemy to itself. And here the Bobble coming out. After all, a thought, a determined and strong-willed fanatic led 81-million strong country with a 700-strong army will always be stronger than the cynical, vorûg of the Orava region and possessing a nuclear arsenal.
So the exam for the RUSSIAN elite proves how not easy Oh!
HE ALSO WATCHED EVENTS AROUND THE NOVOROSSIYA.
Treacherous, but bold vražina Erdogan-not blind. He, too, watched the events in Ukraine and in Russia since the beginning of the year 2014. Conclusion it is clear: Valor and Moscow will not have enough time, she ditched the Republic of Donbass in limbo, in abject poverty. Times and failed to divide Ukraine and became justified a war with the EU. He certainly considered the Syrian expedition as an attempt to dilute the failure with Novorossiia. Like a wolf with a good flair (intuition), he realized: stušuetsâ Moscow strikes unexpectedly, taken aback. And if it retreated in the case of the Donbas, was unable to act quickly and stunning in the spring of 2014, the use of nuclear weapons can not be afraid.
So he banged in the back. So that no one crashed down bomber of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION, but also the whole image of her head as the incredible steep Superman. I must say, a very painful blow. Erdogan as saying: well, and what you do with me? We, Turks, its army in 90-e before the crash did not bring her all the time, we strengthen and nurture our Navy. Fight with us directly, without nuclear weapons, you can not. And nuclear capabilities you would never dare to apply.
FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF A NEW INDUSTRIALIZATION
the author looks at the Syrian adventure and conflict with Turkey through the eyes of an adept new industrialization, look small and medium businesses.
I think that the tragedy with the Su-24 m and confrontation with Turkey is a natural consequence of the binding of the Russian elite in a completely unnecessary from the war. A war that brings us only fragmentation, wanton burning of resources for new industrialization, exorbitant taxes and fees. We would understand a war: the annexation of Donbass. Which could be completed in a few days in April 2014 years just buying power of cities and local law enforcers. Here is an obvious benefit. We receive are agriculturally and industrially developed region, with excellent harbors, and bloodless. Completely intact. There was the Act of unification of the Russian people, and we were getting into the disposal of hundreds of thousands of well-trained workers, technicians, engineers. With vocational training system unruined.
It would be understandable if at the same time Putin threw out of power sislibov national-haters in the real sector. If created from our new Government Wednesday and the leadership of the Central Bank, marking the beginning of the industrialization-mobilization. Genuine development, rather than simply import replacement. If our real sector get vital loans available.
We understand such a war. We love it. But instead we got uvâzanie in a country losing adventure, which for national interests is simply pointless. Why do we need the Middle East from a serpentarium forever gryzuŝihsâ tribes and clans? What will it cost military base in Syria, if NATO bases appear in Odessa, Ochakov, Nikolaev and Kherson on the distance of shot at point-blank range to Moscow? Why do we need Syria, if any victory over terrorism, it's not going to bring the Islamists and the dry land to us IGIL never come cannot?
Now we've got a clear prospect that Turks would begin to transfer militants IGIL to us. Via Azerbaijan. Through Turkmenistan, which Turkey is praying. Let the Brook, and not thousands of tanks and samohodkami, but still! If now possible collusion of Ankara and Washington for the sake of stirring up Islamic terrorism inside Russia? If our enemies sleeve clear trump card: while you're stuck in Syria, we will start the operation over Afghanistan and Central Asia. Yes still can and Karabakh war begin.
No such successes in foreign policy is not satisfied with us! Protracted senseless war only put an end to the transition of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION, only speed up its fall. View Maxim Kalashnikov: to save face, sšibite, one of the Turks in response (it will not cause war). But Syria start a gradual withdrawal from the adventure. Let there fight the Iranians and Europeans. You can help Tehran with weapons. But no more!
Efforts should be directed to the solution of the problem of Donbass. To combat the crisis their economy. For cleaning the high echelons of the sislibov. On a new course of industrialization of Russia. Because wage war, having raw materials and rostovŝičstva economy, theft and financial dependence on the West, it is guaranteed the defeat of RUSSIA. It is a threat to its collapse and disintegration.
Don't want to listen to? Continue to beat the Syrian Web, Aki Mucha, entanglement all stronger and stronger? Getting more and more new crises? Not having neither the strength nor the time nor the resources to rescue the economy? Harvesting under the root of the small and medium business, suffocating his taxes and the inaccessibility of credit?
Then blame on ourselves, ladies and gentlemen. Then be repeated a century-old history. Erdogan is the sharpening stone for you, Beau Monde of the Russian Federation. The present Turkey, certainly not Imperial Germany. But it is very similar to the Japan of the early twentieth century.