Vladislav Inozemtsev explains what margin of safety has Russia's economy today and how it will survive afloat President Vladimir Putin
In 2010 year Vladislav Inozemtsev, on behalf of the Russian opposition, said: "Putin must go". In 2012 he "resigned"-left the party right after Ta supported Putin in the presidential election. In 2015 it uses every opportunity to explain European and Ukrainian politicians: their action is not sufficient to force Russia to change the behavior. Taking advantage of his visit to Kiev, HB asked u Inozemtseva-why.
-How do you assess the State of the Russian economy for today-how it affected the imposition of sanctions, the fall in oil prices, the cost of participation in hostilities? How long Russia can exist in this mode, any margin of its economy?
-Great. After Putin came to power, oil went from $ 20 small to more than $ 100[за баррель]. In the year 2013 prices were kept at $ 108 -109. Therefore, financial revenues were enormous for all these years, and now reserves are very large. They are reduced, but still Putin found a very good resource for maintaining its capabilities. Through devaluation, which was very strong, he leveled the effect of decreasing oil prices. Then there are now as many rubles per barrel, how much, when it was $ 100, and the dollar-Ruble rate 32. As a result, MST filling budget about the same as it was.
If the Europeans clearly told that Ukraine in year 2025 will be a member of the EU, it would have been better than any monetary assistance for Ukrainians
Of course, additional taxes fall, profit tax, for example, because of deteriorating business conditions. But due to the fact that people have no extra money (now State underpays nor cancelled, anyone, as it was in the year 2008), demand a small, little inflation, not causing prices to rise.
Therefore, we cannot say that it is a point of stability, but it is a fairly stable state. And will not be spent all reserves for a year or two, as many say. I think that the 2016-2018 years Russia will be held smoothly.
-Painless, if the ruble and oil on those quotes now?
-If oil is $ 35, the ruble will be 100-and still it will be painless. This is a somewhat lower standard of living, but the problem is that Putin is the ingenious situational politician, he sees perfectly what people respond. And the idea of confrontation with the West very well rested on the Russian consciousness: "there is a confrontation, we are in a position to external aggression, so we need to unite, unite, to tighten their belts, will of course be the worsening of the economic situation, but it is absolutely acceptable in the face of such mindless confrontation, is a new cold war, and we have to survive and become stronger."
I think that even if the standard of living will fall to 10-15% is absolutely will not undermine Russian positions. More dangerous than another. You can have a relatively old standard of living for the country as a whole, but have trouble spots. Let's say, the standard of living for the country as a whole, 5% on the stabilizer, but in three areas-do not pay teachers ' salaries four months is a problem. Scatter points are raised in protest. This can really srezonirovat′ and become a political factor. But I did not think that it is very likely.
-How would you assess the real effect of the sanctions on Russia?
-They beat, but only financially. The fact that large corporations could not to refinance debts, and forced to give them increases the outflow of capital, which last year was a record, and reduces their investment programs. But it all works a little bit for the future — not investing in new oil field development, don't build a new piece of railroad. But this does not mean that now everything is crumbling. This stop future growth.
Everything else is pointless. Personal sanctions, prohibition on entry, limiting the supply of equipment-nothing. Current sanctions may not change anything.
-This is a useless tool?
-The West imposed sanctions, in my opinion, for one simple reason: he didn't want to do anything, but I could not and keep silent. Financially support Ukraine-did not want troops-not like naryvat′sâ confrontation with Putin, too. And we had to do something to show solidarity. Here they are and imposed these sanctions. Now the war is now no new Ilovaisk. Why do they need to be tightened up?
-That they would need to have had an impact on Russia, Ukraine expects?
-Sanctions worked, it is necessary, firstly, to prevent Western companies to own any financial instruments in Russia. A very strong factor, because half the trades on the stock exchange comes from nonresidents. If foreigners say that sold all Russian paper-the Russian stock market falls by 60% in three days. As a result, our dear oligarhat becomes poorer half for several days, that, to put it mildly, not to please anyone. This is not the same as your company can not attract money. This means that you have today, it was $ 3 billion, and has become a $ 1 billion. And Vladimir Vladimirovich-so say the reason for such joy. This greatly changes the feeling of people in the business.
Then, the restriction of energy exports. But Europe cannot even deal with Gazprom. It has 80 billion of excess reserve capacity in LNG-terminals for supply, and still does not deliver LNG-gas. It buys from Gazprom, because there are cheaper. In fact, gas prices-LNG by December will be roughly the same as were gazpromovskie prices a year and a half ago. But if Europe wanted to respond harshly to Russia, she would say: ' OK, we are ready not to save on gas and gazpromovskom udeševlennom switch for the same price with Gazprom for the LNG. " But nothing not happening, no one is going to do it. Vice versa. They increase purchases because prices become more competitive.
-If Russia from SWIFT cut off is changed anything or is it just empty talk?
Is not empty talk, it really would complicate the system of transfers. The influence of SWIFT that you can't make payments in real time. If you can not make transfers in real time, you lose the ability to significantly invest in the stock market, cannot issue a normal overnajtovye credits. Well, listen-there were times when there was SWIFT, when Russia was not connected to it-well, well, it will be so.
-How are companies and banks that cannot attract external borrowing?
-Hard. They work largely at a loss. Many entrepreneurs are now making a choice in favour of additional, previously deferred assets and maintenance companies.
The Russian economy is in such a position because people corny poorly understood what was going on. If they knew better they would have taken the money, leaving the market, closed company. But, without realizing the magnitude, duration and depth of the subsequent problems, people think that they now have alternative is to invest in the ongoing work of the company. Because close and exit the market is to give another niche and take her again will be nearly impossible. If they could evaluate adequate, they would be closed.
-September negotiations with Beijing ended not in favor of Putin. Expected investment from China?
-Expected, but won't see them. The maximum any inter-State loans. Lukoil had never worked to get from China a dime, and Lukoil is one of the most open, transparent, and large companies in Russia. I don't think the Chinese will build something. And they will not give money.
-What will be next?
-Putin hopes the AVOs, its star and that all will be well. I do not see they have no strategy, no serious plans in case of further strong deterioration.
-How would you assess the economic situation in Ukraine?
-The economic situation in Ukraine is quite objectively visible on statistics is more or less stable course, you somehow manage debt and agreed to the restructuring, there will be no default. This in itself wonders that a year ago it was difficult to count. But any breakthrough movements in the economy, I also do not yet observe.
-Do you see any way the breakout for Ukraine?
-You need precise promises from Europe. In the words of Wolfgang Schüssel, former Chancellor of Au[2000-2007]stria, should increase assistance to Ukraine, giving more money: Greece gave 300 billion, and you nothing. And now Ukraine is more important.
This is correct, but it seems to me that this is not a solution. Europeans need to clearly determine the official membership. If they clearly told that Ukraine in year 2025 will be a member of the EU, it would have been better than any monetary help, because people would have figured that would be the normal legislation, will be guaranteed investments. This motivation, very complex. From this position you can already build further steps, including investors.
-You will understand why the Europeans do not want to take on the obligations of EU membership?
-Because they are absolutely not configured now play in a big political game. They have a deep crisis of leadership. Problems cannot be solved without leadership. But one man, too, not all solved. When the EU was created-it was a whole galaxy of people. All moved, when ambitious goals. Now there is an ambitious goal.
Now Russia is a challenge for Europe, but they don't appreciate this as a major threat.
-Europeans don't work under pressure. Nothing of what they did-not the transition from European economic community to the European Union, neither the euro nor the East expansion was under pressure. Look at the Balkans is a huge painful problem that knocks the Bell. And they do nothing. The more you push, the less they lend. They don't like to act in the face of external stress.
That is, in this case, rather, the purpose is not in the Russian threat. Awesome goal-year 2017. To the 60 anniv[создания ЕС]ersary of you combined the continent. Its population is 510 million, GDP-16 trillion euros. And left[вне ЕС] Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova is 60 million, 350 billion GDP. You even just a little bit-and all Europe was closed. Turkey is not Europe, Russia-not at all. And the EU project is finished. But it somehow put the emphasis.
-Possible revision of Russia's foreign debt conditions of Ukraine, i.e. restructuring?
-I think not. This is a purely political pressure. Putin created this excuse, and in Russia it was a lot of discontent, when Yanukovych gave this loan.
-Among the people?
-No, ordinary people in Russia don't interest anyone. But even in the political elite, the Finance Ministry and other-all objected. All knew perfectly well that it's bad debt. But Putin said that it is entirely reciprocal beneficial. As a result, and geopolitical goals were profukany, and money. Therefore, I think it will matter to seek to return to duty.
-But its not going to Ukraine to fully return.
-He will serve in all sorts of Stockholm arbitration, international courts.
-As you can see economic, trade relations between Ukraine and Russia in the future?
-They will be worse and worse. When will implement the EU-Ukraine Agreement, I t[с 1 января 2016 года]hink Russia will respond to regular limitations.
-For Russia itself this will tangibly?
-There is a separate sector-Defense a little aviation and any point points-where, really, the Russian industrial complexes depend heavily on Ukrainian suppliers. Across the economy, it is not.
-Last question-do you think that Putin in Russia-forever?
-No, Putin physically mortal.
-And before that moment?