Foto: PHL
As Russia's sanctions against Turkey hit the Moscow
Russia this week imposed sanctions against Turkey, and Vladimir Putin broke out loud statements addressed to the authorities of that country, that has received a sharp response. What does this conflict, who suffer from sanctions and what kind of threat for the RUSSIAN FEDERATION says its not propaganda, is the opinion of Dmitry Oreshkina for "Apostrophe".
Such a step would necessarily affect the Russian-Turkish relations as a whole, otherwise there was no sense in these sanctions venturing. Another question, how.
Impact negatively. Because Erdogan (President Recep Erdogan, "Apostrophe") sufficiently tough stance, he was ready to Putin's behavior, and most importantly — it is, that oppose the sanctions, and he definitely will take advantage.
If we evaluate the sanctions themselves in terms of efficiency, it is difficult to say how many will lose Turkey, but basically her problems lie in three areas. The first is exported to Russia and, consequently, the business with it. Basically, it's construction projects, export of Turkish textiles and Turkish fruits.
According to one of the Russian banks, limiting the import of Turkish imports to Russia not so large in overall terms for the economy of the Russian Federation, but because some sectors including consumer, very tightly connected with imports, this will result in the growth of inflation by two percentage points. If expected inflation 12-13%, in connection with the introduction of the sanctions regime it can rise up to 14-15%.
Following direction, which will face problems in connection with the introduction of the anti-Turkish sanctions, is tourism. Losses can be up to 10 billion dollars. Because a great number of Russian tourists accustomed to travel in Turkey, where cheap, comfortable and beautiful. Now this line is dropped. Consequently, a great number of companies claim that they just have to go out of business, because the Egyptian obrubleno direction, and now Turkish. They advise to switch to Greece, but millions of tourists do not come around that country on a number of organizational things. Means the loss of jobs for ten thousand people is inevitable, the loss of tax base for Russia. This is a very serious problem. And for Turkey too.
Finally, the third component is gas. Turkey almost 60% of gas gets from Russia. If crop supplies, trying to play the same story that with Ukraine, such yourself another winter "gas war", the Turkey will get very serious and painful blow. But Russia, too, and strategic. Turkey with so-so somehow survive a year, can half a year, but during that time it will switch to alternative sources. For example, with the Azerbaijan pipeline was planned in the year 2017, but it is also possible to process and accelerate. And considering that Turkey is Turkmenistan, whose gas too much even to organize an airlift to Turkey — is not a problem. Yes, it will take some time, there are still a number of Iran, which would considerably disturb, but this is a minor problem, as Turkmenistan has long been waiting for opportunities to come out with its gas to the European market. Therefore, place on the market of Turkey, if it will lose Gazprom, adopt other generators.
But for Gazprom it will be very serious losses. Russia has so far only said that Turkey will turn off the gas, but do something in this direction in no hurry. Goes this pretentious rhetoric about what we would punish Turkey, and at the same time taken a rational decision that tobacco and citrus are deduced from sanctions, and perhaps gas too. This means that there is understanding of the reciprocal effects of such sanctions.
In addition, Turkey has, than to answer and in an economic sense. Of course, it (the Straits — "Apostrophe"), the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. Everyone is talking about the doctrine of Montreux, which may limit the pass Russian military vessels, but it is in the Russian propaganda intended to seem uniquely simplified. Specifically, refers to the fact that Turkey can close its straits only in the event of war. But this is not the case. In the Montreux Convention clearly stipulated that this is possible in case of threat of war. So when Erdogan said that if Turkish aircraft will be attacked, it will interpret as a sign of aggression, it is not simply means that Turkey will take offense. This means that they can perfectly legitimately restrict the passage of the Black Sea fleet warships through the Straits. And instead of two to three days from the Black Sea to Syrian military bases have to go across the Atlantic, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean Sea, which will take at least two weeks. But even this is not the main thing.
Talking about the Montreux Convention, many forget that in 1994 year, Turkey unilaterally adopted and regulations for passage of civilian ships through the Straits. And the document also leaves hands free to rigidly enough influence and on merchant ships. It allows you to restrict the entrance of Turkey merchant ships in case of violation of sanitary, environmental standards and even some important obstacles. Turkey will have no difficulty to find violations of sanitary or environmental standards on ships of the Russian fleet. Most of the Russian merchant ships goes under the flags of Cyprus, Liberia and other offshore States, that is, formally, they are not Russian, but Turkey-what's the deal? Discrepancy of sanitary standards can be found on vessels under the Liberian flag.
In addition, from Novorossiysk was 25-30 million tons of oil through the Straits controlled by Turkey. It's not much, less than 10% of the entire oil extraction in Russia. Can they move through the Baltic ports or oil pipe? It is theoretically possible, but RUSSIA is still around 30 million tons of oil products (gasoline, diesel, all sorts of oils) that move. And yet in our propaganda say nothing, they say, we'll find out, this would create an additional burden, and will have to negotiate with nasty for the Putin regime countries.
Turkey has quite a painful response to Russia. And since began to Exchange no longer kicked under the table and in the open, that Turkey is ready to go at a loss. There's about the same patriotic customized audiences. Accordingly, Russia and Turkey, and will get worse as a result. But Europe and the United States will be better, because as long as these two characters been tearing each other between themselves, they quickly solve the problem of finding alternative sources of energy. There will be more buying in Norway, on the Middle East, and in the long term Russia loses much of its sector in the oil and gas market, which is going through today at the best of times. So winning rhetoric should be separated from the reality of the situation.
Dmitry oreshkin, apostrophe.com.ua
