Sergey ALPINE: Hybrid war with Russia. How to tame the West, Putin


Russia deliberately seeking a confrontation with the West and finds him. A moment of this behavior of the Kremlin was behind the scenes to arrange and West.

Many events in recent years seem so improbable that some experts say about the "madness" of their authors. However, a careful look at these events can be seen in them quite some logic and consistency. Treat with irony, as I hope and reader, to the various "conspiracy theories", so I want to say right away that this logic control rather than individual historical people or country, writes Sergei Alpine on the site

Ukraine in November 2013 year was one step, one stroke from the association with the European Union. Step and stroke, then not held due to Putin's unprecedented efforts to prevent this.

Has made it its goal? No. It did not take into account the will of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian values for the EU, which also was not going to "give" so easy it under protectorate of Russia. Yanukovych ran. While Putin took advantage of the power vacuum and made his move in a hybrid war, annexing Crimea and Donbass burning.

This phase of the hybrid war effective for Moscow? On the one hand, the Crimea became part of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, Russia was the "vyprovožena" of the iconic international organizations received serious suspicions due to downed over Donbass passenger Airplanes and the ensuing sanctions.

And it could still call in the amount still success from the point of view of the Kremlin, if not one "but". Hybrid war theorists explained Putin wave "color revolutions" in Ukraine-2004 to Arab spring looks West, his ability to modern methods of warfare easily sweep away unwanted modes and subordinate its influence entire countries.

Against this backdrop, Putin's success in his own eyes look very modestly. Crimea, especially since the beginning of the embargo, and requiring repair Donbass is obvious territory without a future outside the recognized borders of Ukraine, in the best case for Russia-two new "Transnistria", there is a review. West is the same from the point of view of Putin still "got" the whole State is Ukraine, and, though with her West there is still a lot of hassle, its potential is incomparable with separate territories. Yet the West got to hand tool of economic sanctions against Russia.

Won something Putin? Yes. He wanted public attention, the need for the leaders of the West to negotiate with him, "Aerie" rating in Russia. According to the results of the military campaign of the mid-2015 2014 years. He got it all. Because there is nothing more effective for such purposes than smoldering conflict.

To understand further need to remind one of the principles of hybrid war, which applies the West. This principle is the consistent "emasculate" the ideology of the enemy, "myth" about it, and only then the taming of physical. Let me remind you that so West joined with Al-Qaeda. And, taking the call Putin, started responding hybrid war Kremlin, giving him a chance to get caught up in the Ukraine, in litigation around then more thinning would occur, requirements of Yukos and other hybrid troubles. With IGILom West has applied the same strategy, while Russia had not intervened in the case.

For "entry" in Syria, the Kremlin was selected very spectacular moment. In September 2015, Europe was shocked by the influx of refugees. The effect of message Putin to quickly finish the war in Syria expected huge. And it could not be imposed by the propaganda effect, but very real. He had to outshine all threaten the tribunals, to lift the sanctions, Putin's offer on the unattainable Olympus winner.

Further, however, everything started to happen very quickly. Actually, the triumphal part of the Syrian campaign ended October 31, 2015 year crash of the Russian passenger A321 over the Sinai Peninsula. The attack happened amid more than modest military successes of Putin in Syria, which he and diminutive himself acknowledged, albeit with the caveat "yet".

In Europe the Kremlin's intervention in Syria coincided with the decrease of no and increase the flow of refugees. So victorious did not effect. The West talks about new sanctions, then the United States imposed sanctions against RUSSIA for its cooperation with the Syrian regime. Seemingly lost again? Not quite.

Won something Putin in Syria? Yes. He became an active military and negotiating "actor" and in this conflict. Especially this role intensified after the terrorist attacks in Paris November 13, 2015 onwards, when the French President called for creation of a coalition with the participation of Russia.

November 24, 2015 Russia situation in Syria entered a new phase. Front-line bomber Su-24 m Russian missile was shot down by VCS air-to-air fighter, the F-16 c with the Turkish air force. Prior to this, Turkey has repeatedly demanded from Russia to cease its violations of Turkish airspace and bombing Turkish allies in Syria. I can only assume that the Su-24 was disabled agreed Russia with NATO for the operation identification system in Syria "ally-alien", allowing the Turkish pilot shoot down as "unidentified". The incident turned into a real tragedy when it became aware of the death of one of the pilots and one during the rescue operation.

Relations between Russia and Turkey were held just a few days from partner path to openly hostile. Seemingly, again losing Putin? But not everything is so easy. Yes, Russia has lost one of its partners. But Putin got another hotbed of tension, which he can do toss "circumstance" or "heat" enough. Of course, all this is very dangerous, but what do you do for the sake of a greater purpose.

And what is the West? West a few days giving Turkey 3 billion euros to deal with the problem of refugees, and Russia gets new sanctions from the United States for its cooperation with Syria. Whew. In addition, the "Turkish" incident-reason for Russia to wonder what price it might pay, helping the coming to power of more stringent forces in Europe, such as Marie Le Pen in France. If "soft" from the point of view of Putin Western partners imposed sanctions, it managers can answer and a volley of missiles.

Let's summarize. That peaceful country loss (loss of Allied positions in international organizations, sanctions, self-limiting), is for the State seeking confrontation and evidence its importance in them, a great success. If we take this as the initial condition, all the developments in recent years have become consistent and logical.

Russia consciously or by the will of historical patterns looking for confrontation with the West and finds him. A moment of such behaviour was secretly hold and the West, which has reason to believe that his safety margin and experience enough to force the Kremlin to calm down, put it in these numerous conflicts. And Russia and the West are aware of the danger of such a development and accept these risks.

Whether this strategy is successful and the West if she will return Russia to a peaceful development, time will tell. Yet it's hard not to recognize that the logic of the development of humankind is on the side of the forces operating from a position of European values. The events of recent years have shown that relatively peaceful years until ended. And the world is rebuilt, preparing for turmoil and years to new challenges, which include the Kremlin's ambitions.

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