Russia surpassed expenditure on defence and arms the whole group of countries and has a place of third world military power. The paradox is that this will not improve and worsen the balance of power along the whole perimeter of Russian borders.
Another five-six years ago our power was comparable to military expenditure with such countries as France, Germany, Britain or Japan. Each of these countries they accounted for about $ 50 billion. Ahead were the United States (approximately $ 660 billion) and China (roughly $ 100 billion). These are the evaluation of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is the most authoritative source in this area. Comparing these figures, it should be borne in mind that military spending made count not at purchasing power parities, and in "living"-dollars at the current exchange rate.
Program perevooruženij (23 trillion rubles. in the 2012-2020). and revolutionary changes in the world of Russian steering class dramatically changed this picture. Only direct military expenditure of Russia (spelled out in the federal budget under "National Defence") reached in 2013-m 2.1 trillion rubles. (3.2% of GDP). They will rise in the current year to 2.5 trillion rubles. (3.4% of GDP). And in the draft budget for the next three years, military spending accounted for respectively 3.0 trillion rubles. (3.9% of projected GDP in current prices), 3.3 trillion (4.0% of GDP) and more than 3.5 trillion rubles. (3.9% of GDP).
This is already significantly higher than the world's average military expenditure (2.4 per cent of world GDP in 2013). And the actual military budget bigger. "In the light of other sections … military economy of Russia in 2014 encumbrance year may exceed 5% of GDP are estimates of the war economy Institute lab Gaidar. Figures SIPRI, quite similar: the Stockholm Institute believes that in 2013-m total military expenditure of Russia amounted to $ 88 billion (4.2 per cent of GDP at current exchange rates) — despite the fact that the official level of these expenditures was, as already mentioned, 3.2 per cent of GDP.
Judging from the budget projects (involving the cessation of growth in the share of military spending in the GDP since the year 2016) Russian authorities realize that economic nuts tightened to the limit, and the rise of real military spending from the current 5% GDP somewhere up to 6% is the maximum that can be expected. And that's not for sure.
Consider that the ruble fall slightly reduce the calculated at the current exchange rate of the Russian GDP dollars. This year, it is unlikely to exceed $ 2 trillion (2013-m was $ 2.1 trillion). Rather, it will be lower. But let us not waste time on trifles. Take these two trillion dollars as forecast values of GDP and also for the coming three years, and then can finally roughly calculate the full military expenditures of our country in 2014-2017-m. Their approximate range: -120 $ 100 billion annually. So shake, Bundeswehr! German military budget now total $ 49 billion and is unlikely to rise soon.
It is clear that the size of military spending and real combat capability of the armed forces is not quite the same thing. But they are related. Therefore, comparing the costs of Russia and other States, it is possible to draw certain conclusions.
As a starting point we take the latter, so to speak, a peaceful year 2013 (SIPRI data). On military expenditures ahead of Russia in the past year were the only two powers. It is clear that the United States ($ 640 billion) out of competition is not only due to the gigantic size of the economy, but also because of the tradition of a lot of spending on the armed forces (about 4% of GDP).
However, on the second place-China ($ 189 billion). Far eastern superpower spends on army just 2 per cent of GDP, but the rapid growth of its economy play increases military spending at $ -20 billion annually. In 2017-m they probably notedly perevalât for $ 250 billion. Lagging behind Russia, and today is two-fold, will only grow.
The Kremlin wants to see China military-strategic partner rather than a rival. While not really seems to be the case. But even if dreams come true, this will be clearly the senior partner, which will force younger dance to its tune.
Now about the placement of forces in the West and Southwest.
As regards the European grandees NATO (France, Britain and Germany), formally, they are also out of competition is not individually together. In 2013-m total military spending of these three powers ($ 160 billion) were markedly higher than Russian, and this excess to continue in the future. But in Moscow, they somehow do not perceive as a real military threat — and it may be right.
Much more interesting neighbors Russia. Recitation of the horrors of approaching NATO to our borders is nonsense. It is enough to simply look at the State of the armed forces of the new members of the militant organization. Total military spending of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania-$ 9 billion. These States have embraced its NATO membership as a security guarantee, reinforced concrete is a great opportunity to save the army. And used it: most of them have military expenditure in the region of 1% of GDP.
And here's a neutral Sweden and Finland join NATO, not willing to spend on their defence spending more — and by the absolute ($ 10 billion), and by relative rate (about 2% of GDP). At the same level and Polish military budget ($ 9 billion, 2% of GDP), the sole NATO newcomer who saved serious army. Even more intimidating looks like Turkey is rising power, a member of NATO with a particular position, special interests and strong army ($ 19 billion, more than 2% of GDP).
The total military budget of all our many neighbors have not reached in 2013-m even up to $ 50 billion. They clearly were not a threat. As a friend of the Ukraine with its disorganized army. Very doubtful that their total power dotâgivala least until half of Russian non-nuclear military capabilities.
2014 year changed everything. Ukraine for the foreseeable future has become what is called a "potential adversary". Petr Poroshenko declared goal is to spend 5% of GDP for the army is very real. The military potential of Ukraine reaches approximately one fifth of the then Russian.
The extent of involvement in an arms race the other neighboring States about equally with Russia depend on their degree of today's fright, and rooted in history of zadora.
It is quite possible to imagine that alarmed by North-Western neighbours (Sweden, Finland and the Baltic countries) will raise its military spending times two (up to $ 30 billion, or up to 3.5-4% of GDP). They are quite capable. Increased and full of ambition, Poland which has appeared today at the forefront of a new cold war, without excessive stress can raise their expenses in the same proportion (up to $ 20 billion). And Turkey, not so much afraid of Moscow as simply realizing their far-reaching projects can increase military spending one and a half times (up to $ 30 billion).
If the arms race in Northern, Eastern and southern Europe will actually begin, then after a few years of total military power of European neighbors of Russia alone, not even taking into account the resources of their logistic and overseas friends can catch up with the potential of our country.
The arms race is rarely one-sided. It picked up. Starting this race, so even with full clarity revealing all its readiness to use its fruits, Russia entered into the competition, in which those who have more and more people and economic power. With three percent of the world economy, two per cent of the population and six-seven percent of world military expenditures (2013-m they were $ 1.780 trillion) our State cannot dictate its rules to all neighbors. The strategic objective was to be diametrically opposite-make them even in the head did not come to start all play together on the opposition, weakening and (or) submissive Russia.
It is amazing to see how in just a year has managed to combine in this overall game literally all the neighbors along the entire length of the borders of Eastern Europeans to the Chinese. Jest of Alexander the third about the fact that Russia has only two allies-army and Navy, should not have been taken literally. Of course, he too was a reactionary. However, it is not allowed to unleash not one war, and strong allies searched for and found.
Sergei Shelin
