2016 year promises to be very difficult for the European Union and the countries of the Middle East. According to the private American intelligence analysis company Stratfor, the refugee crisis will continue in Europe, which can lead to serious problems in the Balkans. In the Middle East, the international community will be able to inflict serious losses to terrorists IGIL, but defeat them completely will not work. American analysts predicted in the year 2016 the greatest player in the Middle Eastern theatre of war will be the Turkey, which will have to overcome resistance to Russia.
A difficult year for the European Union
Specialists of private American intelligence analysis company Stratfor predicted that 2016 will be a transition year for many countries of the European Union. The main reason for this, in their view, become refugee crisis: "it will take place in cycles. In the first months of the year, low temperature and bad weather will reduce the flow of migrants. But with the approach of the summer it will gradually increase. This will lead to the strengthening of border controls by countries through which pass the so-called "Balkan routes" hitting the refugees into the EU, and will cause them to be less tolerated by the authorities in regard to the "guests". Freedom of movement within the Schengen area will be limited, "the record companies, which have" Apostrophe ". According to Stratfor analysts, this greatly aggravate the situation in the Balkan region and create preconditions for violence and ethnic conflict.
Disagreements over how to proceed with regard to refugees, in turn, will lead to an increase in the popularity of nationalist and evroskeptičeskih forces. According to the American private intelligence, particularly dangerous situation in this regard will be Germany and France, where in the year 2017 must pass parliamentary elections: "German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be under huge pressure due to the increasing split between conservative and progressive members of her coalition. Local elections in March will be a test for "Christian Democratic Union", and if their results prove disappointing, calls for the resignation of Merkel will sound louder.
In Stratfor believed that in 2016 year Poland will require increasing NATO presence in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as put pressure on the European Union to maintain a firm policy against Russia. The most unstable situation will be observed in Greece. "Prime Minister Alexis Ciprasu have to contend with political instability and social unrest. Greece to be another year of negligible economic growth and high unemployment. This will lead to protests in the country and frequent conflicts among the leadership, "consider American analysts. They do not rule out the dissolution of the current Government of Greece, but it is believed that this will not lead to new early elections, in which no interest no political force in Parliament. "We do not expect that the 2016 year Greece would come out of the eurozone, but Athens still has many problems. Resistance to reform, which is observed by the public and politicians, will lead to another confrontation leadership with international lenders ", was noted at Stratfor.
And here is the main intrigue of the coming year in "private CIA" consider the situation in the uk associated with the referendum on its withdrawal from the EU. "It is expected that the vote will take place at the end of 2016 or 2017 at the beginning of the year. London tries to leave the country within the EU. If the referendum is to take place in the year 2016, will win adherents version of "stay" — suggest in private American intelligence.
Whether win IGIL?
American private intelligence officers forecast that in the year 2016, the terrorist organization Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant "(IGIL) would incur significant losses. "However, the total defeat of terrorists this year will not. Weakening of the IGIL will force its leaders to call for the holding of more terrorist attacks in Western countries and the Middle East. And, as shown by the attack in Paris, their secret cells can be very dangerous in that regard. Moreover, competition with other jihadis IGIL will also motivate them to new attacks. Threatened in this case are the countries of North Africa, the Arabian peninsula and in West Africa, "the company said in the report.
In doing so, Stratfor suggest that one of the major players in the Middle East to counter the IGIL becomes Turkey: Ankara is already planning an operation West of the Euphrates River in northern Syria, to push back the militants "Islamic State" from their borders. In addition, Turkey are likely to enjoy the support of United States in implementation of massive air strikes on northern Syria and carrying out ground operations will provide friendly towards her rebel forces of the Syrian turkmanov. Moreover, Turkey and the United States will cooperate with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and possibly other Arab States like Egypt and Jordan, to organize the antiislamistskie operations in Syria, "the report says.
However, experts from the United States believes that Turkey can implement these plans prevent Russia. In their view, Syria RUSSIA pursues multiple objectives, one of which is to help the current Kremlin leadership: "this partnership means that Moscow would have to defeat the forces of attempting to weaken the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, including a large number of opposition groups supported by the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar. Russian focus simultaneously against militants "Islamic State" and Syrian rebels will not allow to form a broad coalition against the IGIL and also worsen Moscow's relations with Ankara. "
According to the version of Stratfor analysts, Russia will try to derail Turkey's military plans by increasing its presence in Syria. "It will mainly be achieved through further use of air power in northern Syria. However, it is not a fact that Turkey will yield such pressure. Between the parties can begin negotiations on avoiding conflict on the battlefield, although this does not preclude potential clashes, "Stratfor believes.