Ideological and political borders region collapse, creating a whole new reality
The frenzied pace of events developing in the Middle East, ruthlessly breaks all the stereotypes and views about this region. Politicians, diplomats, military officers and experts not only repeatedly failed in their predictions about the future, producing increasingly defective tactics and strategy, but simply do not have time to adequately react to what is happening. The solutions proposed are late and by the time of implementation of the hopelessly obsolete, leading to even greater chaos, which in turn sows new doubts and reinforces the misunderstanding of the situation in the minds of decision makers.
Due to the fundamentally important events-September 11, 2001 attack of the year, the us invasion of Iraq in 2003, the year the Arab spring start 2011, proclamation of the Caliphate in the year 2014, as well as myriad smaller events and phenomena-the Middle East established in previous decades as simply ceased to exist. And this is no exaggeration.
Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq to four major Arab country with a total population of almost 100 million people-in fact ceased to exist. The boundaries established in the region after the first world war, was largely erased. Instead of internationally recognised political geography arising from the interests of Britain and France, a century-old before our eyes appear completely new, constructed along the lines of ethnic and religious Division. And scrapping the old system is enforced by, triumphant anything and no one limited right.
But the changes did not want to admit in world capitals, affecting not only the border lines. Even more serious changes are coming in the ideological sphere. Dominate the popular in the twentieth century "the nasserist movement"-Arab nationalism involved in Socialist ideas, quickly took a militant Islamism. This ideology rejects in principle the concept of "nation" and "national State". Rod his doctrine-the Islamic Ummah, then there is a community of all Muslims, regardless of ethnicity. In fact, it is a challenge to the entire current system of political and State structure. The most flamboyant exponent of this ideology is a Caliphate (Islamic State), it has been successfully operating in the torn on part of Iraq and Syria.
Strategies based on previous ideas about the Middle East, operating there and their motivation, do not work. Regional and world leaders make decisions based on outdated data. For example, in their picture of the world Iraq still exists as a State, although the Government in Baghdad for more than a year now in full control of the only Shiite areas in the South of the country, and Kurdish and Sunni regions it de facto sovereign powers. Interestingly, their sovereignty even stronger "Central", since the Shiite government in fact is just a puppet of Tehran. As a result, the United States declared "help the Iraqi army" actually turns into support for Shiite militias and (by them) of Iran.
Worse yet, the almost complete disappearance of the so-called "moderate" insurgents from Syria, ignored in the United States and Europe, led to the arming and supplying fighters IG at the expense of Western taxpayers. But that's not all. For example, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, trying to keep them controlled in Syria forces recently have put modern anti-tank TOW Front operatives of Al-Nusra» community who call themselves Syrian unit of Al-Qaida. But the problem is not this, but the fact that Al-Qaida today, practically ceased to exist, its active members worldwide have long advocated under the flags. In General, the rebels were handed over to the Caliphate SYSTEM.
Generally, the dissolution of the Al-Qaida in the Caliphate, and lots more, also not yet understood in Western capitals in due measure, although plain text speak and its former leaders, and while the few but highly knowledgeable experts in the United States and Europe.
On the fight against Al-Qaida was so much written about it careers, as many articles and books, to counter the terrorists spent so much time and money that the recognition of its phantom now simply impossible. In the American mythology of killing Osama bin Laden is considered a critical success and a "turning point" in the fight against international terrorism. Nobody will dare to declare that this operation was purely symbolic, no practical benefits are not earned. Therefore, even very long time huge human, financial and intellectual resources will continue to be sent to war with nonexistent enemy already, and not on the Islamic State, which is a very real danger.
While Western Governments wrongly evaluate not only enemies, but allies. The most striking example is Saudi Arabia and its role in the region. Not everyone knows that the United States Congress, published an official report on the terrorist attacks September 11, 2001 year is incomplete. In the public version of the missing 28 pages classified so that not even every Congressman can read them. However, the contents of these pages became known. There is a question about the involvement of the Riyadh authorities in organizing and financing the attacks. Judging from what leaked out from Congress information, Embassy of Saudi Arabia in the United States, as well as members of the Royal family financed and helped people, sent Boeings in the twin towers and the Pentagon. Given that the role of Osama bin Laden in this story is not so obvious and not confirmed, for classifying pages have understandable explanation: the attacks look like the work of Saud and not terrorist-hermit, korotavšego time in Afghan cave without money, PC, phone and even newspapers. Disclosure of this information is fraught with very far-reaching consequences for the us-Saudi strategic relations.
Interestingly, Saud does not deny its participation in the terrorist attacks, although it did not confirm it. But against the interests of the United States continue to work. According to CIA veteran Robert Baer http://ianmasters.com/sites/default/files/bbriefing_2015_06_14a_robert%20baer.mp3 Riyadh is the main sponsor of Islamic State. Anyway, the Saudi authorities do not interfere with the IG funding local charitable "foundations. The thing here is that the Caliphate and the Kingdom have a lot in common. Firstly, their ideological basis, a system of law, politics, and a list of enemies are almost identical. Secondly, the absolutely priority for Saudi Arabia is elimination of Iranian influence in the region. In order to drive away allies from Iran to Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, and probably Saudi Arabia willing to conclude an alliance with anyone. Since the Americans recently took a course of rapprochement with Tehran, then so much the worse for them: Riyadh will help any force capable of countering the Iranians, even if potentially this force represents a danger for the Kingdom.
In this context, it is very important to know exactly who is currently managing Saudi Arabia, as well as understand the motivation of the ruler.-ERR:REF-NOT-FOUND- Prince Mohammed (left) formally was only the head of the Defense Ministry, but on equal terms and foreign leaders. The photo with the Egyptian President Al-Sisi
The formal ruler of the Kingdom is his Highness Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud. But in reality, 79-year-old monarch, who stroke, spinal surgery and suffering from senile dementia, cannot effectively govern the country. He has delegated this function to his 29-year-old son Muhammad Ibn Salman Al Saud, who was the youngest Minister of defence in the world, as well as manages the Royal courtyard and stands second in line for succession. In addition, it is expected that in the near future under its management will proceed, the National Guard, making it an unprecedentedly powerful ruler in the history of their country.
In the past, the Royal family in order to avoid the dictator responsible for distributing power structures between different people, but all the important questions solved by consensus. Now this practice is actually stopped. Mohammed Ibn Salman is fast becoming the sole leader, strongly uprooting from authorities at all dissatisfied, despite past achievements and noble origin.
It is important to note that this young man never lived and worked abroad, has only a Bachelor's degree in jurisprudence, but different extreme religiosity and extreme hostility towards the "heretics"-Shias. The above-mentioned assessment of Robert Baer, his ideology is very similar to the views of the leaders of the Caliphate. They at least understand each other and do not feel too great resentment. At least tactically. While Damascus, Baghdad, Sana and Beirut, to varying degrees, are controlled by Shiites, IG and Saudi Arabia will actually operate at the same time. And this is another current feature fast-paced reality which categorically does not wish to understand and accept the American political elite, for whom Riyadh-long and faithful ally, rather than a State sponsor of terrorism.
However, all may soon return to their seats. If this tactically IG and Saudi Arabia are trying to achieve the common goals, the strategic plan of the clash between them inevitably. The Caliphate cannot be present, unless control of Mecca and Medina. This, in turn, presupposes the dismantling of the Saudi Kingdom. Since the IG from the ideological point of view much more attractive and aggressive, many specialists in future confrontation put exactly on it rather than on pogrâzšuû in corruption and the luxury of the Royal family.
President Barack Obama, perhaps, and understands what is happening, but categorically unwilling to take decisive action. He struggles to avoid quarrels with Saudi Arabia, its capture Islamists formal collapse of Iraq into three parts, American war with Iran and the final dive region in massacres of all against all. He needs to survive and save the situation "controlled chaos" for two more years-until the end of his presidential term. That there will be then is already taking care of the next American leader. That is why right now the u.s. actions in the region are reminiscent of the work of the fire brigade that rushes from one of the burning building to another, but not extinguish them, but merely knocked down the flames, which almost immediately engaged with renewed vigor.
General Stanley McChrystal, the Commander of American troops previously in Iraq and Afghanistan, in a recent interview with Fox News, said that the United States Army is fully capable to perform any task, but first we need to determine what the ultimate goal of American policy in the region. According to him, even now it is unclear what solution would be for Washington to be acceptable and desirable. The problem is that the answer to this question now no one else has is a process of self-destruction in the Middle East is already actively goes and how it will end, remains anyone's guess.