Crimea has already cost Russia tens of billions of dollars. But the main spending is yet to come
On a personal page on Facebook Alexander Lie, former Minister of tourism of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the war of the worlds — Russian and non-Russian. Representatives of the first show photos and video of tourist hype on resorts of the peninsula. Thus proving that life there is being established. Representatives of the second claim that if there is some surge of activity, only in major cities on the periphery — of the unusual calm.
This is that rare case when all right. In Crimea truly noticeable increasing flows of tourists. The so-called Minister of resorts and tourism of Crimea Sergey Strel′bickij said that 2015‑m region adopted already 2.2 million guests.
This is approximately 1 million more than it actually is, assured Liev, relying on the transport features of the peninsula.
Anyway, the number of vacationers in the Crimea Russians approaching their pre-war level.
Prior to the annexation of the season closed figure in 6 million visitors. One third of them tourists from former republics of the SOVIET UNION, two-thirds — from 4 million people — provided the Ukrainians. "By the way, so it was in pre-Soviet and Soviet periods, — said Liev. — Always.
But not at the expense of the holidaymakers survived. In conjunction with the 2013‑m restaurant-hotel business travel industry provided 14% of all revenues to local coffers. And here is the agricultural sector, for example, gave 32%. The main source of its revenues were sales to mainland of Ukraine, Russia, Baltic States, and so on. Now this source of issyhaet.
In order to keep the peninsula and poluostrovitân living there afloat, Russia have to go to the financial sacrifices. Subsidize pensions and public sector wages, to subsidize flights of tourists here from the regions of Russia.
The number of vacationers in the Crimea Russians approaching their pre-war
How long the Kremlin will be able to contain the Crimea? "Forever!" — Russian Vladislav Inozemtsev, Director of the Center for studies of postindustrial society. The budget, they say, will allow. But these forever enshrined refuses only for the preservation of backwardness. For the development of a private foreign capital — and it is not and will not.
"Invest in Crimea it is possible only with a waiver of investing outside of Crimea, explains Glory Rabinovich, a Russian financier, Manager of the Diamond Age Capital Advisors. — or are you dealing with the Crimea, and you cover the sanctions or are you dealing with the whole world and not podpadaeš′ under sanctions".
Back in the USSR
Immediately several leaders of Crimean hotels, resorts, owners of private cottages handed over the NV through their friends and relatives living in Kiev, that are afraid to comment the Ukrainian press. "Today I want to talk with you, and tomorrow I will not be here," said the Director of one of the big Yalta hotels. Promises not to call names and companies operate.
my brother has a tourism business in the Crimea, could talk to you, but not on the phone, "says temporarily out in the Ukrainian capital Crimean businesswoman.
is possible and via Skype — offers NV.
-Skype even more breaks — she is responsible.
It is not excluded that it thicken the paint. But in the old days, nobody like condensation.
Finally one entrepreneur, owner of a large tourist complex in Evpatoria, agreed to talk openly about tourists, new life in Crimea and about expectations. But two days before putting rooms interlocutor in the email said: "there was a big check with the presence of an employee of the Prosecutor's Office, Epidemiology and other structures. Under the auspices of combating extremism perešerstili all. We are waiting for results from the fines. Links to our facility in print are undesirable. The rest can say: having a rest (alas) is. Season relative to last year, of course, successful. However, strictly fall into the Soviet Union. "
One of the features noted entrepreneur, is among the visitors many Muscovites and Petersburgers. But it's mainly people with incomes of average and below average. "Very many seaside villages and resort villages stand empty,-he explains. — If the native Ukraine knew diverse Crimea, Russian traveler is only recreational, widely known in the USSR".
And another observation from the same evpatorijskogo businessman: "All who rushed with the idea of joining native Har[“возврата” в РФ]bor", say that you need to wait, and all will be well. And those for whom it was a pain, just waiting. "
At this crossroads Crimean authorities with the generous support of the federal budget to try to gain the trust of the first and second reign. At the same time, Russia is a massive advertising campaign to attract tourists to the peninsula. All mass agitation. Strel′bickij in the air of the Crimean channel said that 90% of all advertising of rest in Crimea paid the federal budget.
How does this help shows the levada Center poll (RUSSIAN FEDERATION), published in mid-June. According to him, 27 percent of Russians will stay home this summer, 22% will go to the cottage, 6% plan to take a rest abroad and 5% — in Crimea. However, it is an achievement: two years ago, only 2% of respondents said that the Russians are planning to visit half-island. But a year ago — 3%.
Natalia Zubarevich, Director of the regional program of the Russian independent Institute for social policy, RUSSIAN television reported that the Crimea became "the most vysokodotacionnym a new subject of the Russian Federation". 2014 year in Crimea and Sevastopol Russian Treasury issued 124.7 billion rubles. ($ 3.3 billion) in the form of grants. This is 80% of the total budget of the peninsula.
Roughly the same subsidy Crimea will receive this year.
Thus, the territory annexed by the volume of annual subsidies bypassed the hitherto most grant regions of Russia: Yakutia with 71 billion rubles, Dagestan with about 60 billion rubles. and Chechnya with 56 billion rubles.
But Russia does not not she winced. Government subsidies to the Crimea — equivalent to just 1% of federal revenues. And if to compare with the breadth of the soul of Russian State-owned companies, then it's not a penny.
"Gazprom for 10 years spent 2.5 trillion rubles. ($ 100 billion) on projects that bring nothing — compares Inozemtsev-So don't think it's Rus[госдотации в Крым]sia kak‑to undermine ". Of annual subsidies in 2014‑m in Crimea (124.7 billion roubles) 90.8 billion rubles. aimed at balancing public sector pensions and salaries.
This money would not undermine RUSSIA's economic power. But unable to strengthen the power of the peninsula, as not to do so and allocated to season 3.5 billion roubles. to subsidize tourist trips and holiday budget in Russian and resorts of Crimea.
The lack of traditional rail is offset by the increase in the number of flights. According to According, Simferopol airport accepts up to 220 boards per day. And to digest this passenger, finished, they say, another Terminal.
But Andrey Shklyar, head of the Analytical Centre direction transport strategies, questions the accuracy of such statistics. He said that at the peak of the season 2013‑m Simferopol up to 60 boards per day. "Whatever the current rise, the daily mode 220 arrivals and otletov looks implausible," explains the expert.
However, to ensure that the loading of ships, the Russian Government subsidizes tickets for 43 air routes of Russian cities in Simferopol. The project includes 32 cities. But only passengers from Grozny and Ivanovo offset part of the cost of tickets all year round. The rest — solely for the season.
Heavy burden of such subsidies to Russia's budget and whether flights offset rail blockade? On both of these issues have Inozemtseva and Lie one response is no. MOL, RF Government easily pays for the subsidized flights in Simferopol and will do it very long. Inozemtsev argues his point of view a simple example.
From 2004 onwards, when the Baltic States became a member of the EU, Russian Kaliningrad became difficult because he needs to cross the Schengen zone, where a visa is required. For the needs of the people, which de facto cut off overland path in metropolis and back, the central budget has allocated funds for a partial compensation for the cost of air travel. "I am confident that with the Crimea will be the same. They will keep very cheap flights, explains the foreigners, then said: "well, how cheap I am Ryanai[ирландской авиакомпанией]r flew to Brussels from Rome for € 18. Here are the prices and no foreseen ".
However, like it or not, believes, even approximately air Liev is unable to replace the rail flow, pre-occupation.
Former Minister of tourism of Crimea took out a large white sheet of paper. Written on it is 6 million people. This is the average number of visitors to the Crimea to 2013‑go. Next to this figure appeared 73% (4.5 million), that is, number of guests, Liev explains autonomy, arrivals and departures. Even before 20% (about 1 million) were avtoputešestvenniki. And only about 7% of the profits. Plus local ports came in averaging 70 cruise liners, and now there is none. To say that one airport Simferopol can replace all other forms of communication is the category of incredible sums up Lie.
The empty land
However, tourism is still not the most painful side of the Russian "Krymnaš". Where agriculture suffers more is the basis of prosperity in the region, forming one-third of the local revenue in the Treasury.
Modern gardens and industrial vegetable plantations could not be grown, particularly in the context of the Crimea, without irrigation. About this HB tells another interlocutor, who requested anonymity, is an employee of an intergovernmental organization.
Here are his conclusions. About 300-350 k. HA Crimean land with a potential production of about 2 million tons of grain a year without the Dnieper water actually lost. This is equivalent to annual losses of about $ 400 million. In addition, the future for the resuscitation of farmland needed huge funds.
About $ 700 million a year to lose a large vegetable garden and farm that dramatically lowered production volumes due to reductions in areas of lower yields and product quality.
To said Liev adds and obvious loss of those who grew rice in the Crimea. The yield of this niche is 2 billion USD per year ($ 250 million) in the year 2013 figures.
This is not the full price, which already pays the Crimea. And in the near future, RUSSIA will have to compensate these losses kak‑to. With not only funds for irrigation systems, but also new logistics for the entire industry. In Crimea there are four major commercial port, but 88% of turnover accounted for by Kiev. With the United States against ports already imposed sanctions.
The lost world
3 August in channel ICTV during talk shows the freedom of speech, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Pavlo Klimkin said that his Office has prepared a package of sanctions against Russia.
Economic instruments, thinks will force Russia to "talk to the Crimea". "No economic development under sanctions is impossible," concluded the Minister.
Anti-Russian sanctions for the annexation of the Crimea a year ago introduced the EU countries, United States, Canada. 20 December last year, the President of America Barack Obama announced that forbade Americans to invest in Crimea, to deliver the goods or services there and conduct any business with companies of the peninsula.
"Crimea still long will place the application only of Russian capital?" asked NV and Actions. His answer: "Always". "There will be interventions here are these crazy dep[французских и итальянских парламентариев]uties, half of which sits on a Kremlin podsose,-said the expert. — they will be there to ride, to speak, to pretend that everything is wonderful. But, of course, big companies will not go to Crimea.
As an example he cites the story of capture by the Turks in 1974 year of Northern Cyprus, which finally solidified approximately at the level of the mid-1970‑h. "I don't see th[на Северном Кипре]ere kakih‑to investors, Foreigners continued. — all these years, Turkey is a candidate for EU membership, a party to the free trade zone. But anyway to North Cyprus investments go only through the Turkish contractors ". Approximately the same looks and the future of the Crimea.
Rabinovich argues that it is impossible to calculate what would eventually be Crimea by Russia. But what it will be ruinous for expert obviously. Direct and indirect losses of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION appreciated the space-digits Rabinovich trillions of dollars.
The market capitalization of the Russian Giants after the annexation and sanctions falls. If in the beginning 2014‑go Rosneft on the London Stock Exchange was estimated at $ 80 billion, now twice cheaper.
The cost of a barrel of oil, including due to the Kremlin's foreign policy for the year decreased from $ 115 to $ 50. In the current April Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted to this trend of dry statistics — budget revenues of about $ 160 billion a year.
Roughly the same amount — about $ 150 billion is lost Russian Central Bank due to a weakening of the ruble exchange rate. Deprived of the opportunity to access international capital markets with the largest banks of the Russian Federation. Not to fall under the sanctions, the most far-sighted Crimean Russian financiers had already publicly disdain work in Crimea.
31 July, the head of Sberbank of Russia German Gref journalist Udo Prencelâ WDR5 "Why in Crimea no Sberbank?" replied: "Crimea is Ukrainian territory from the point of view of the international financial sector, and we adhere to this position. Simply put, for savings bank of Crimea is not Russia. "
Occurring for a major Russian business uncertainty will long withhold it from investments in edge of fearless Patriots.
Calculating the "cost" of the virtual ticket Crimea "homeland", Rabinovich offers rate it using these hypothetical between Moscow and Kiev. "If kogo‑to was an overwhelming desire to get hold of the Crimea in the composition of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION, it was possible to offer Ukraine over $ 500 billion, the peninsula — says Rabinovich. is very big money. But this kind of potential purchase would cost Russia is ten times cheaper than the consequences of annexation ".