Moscow uses the tactics of psychological pressure on Ukraine and the EU, modeling situation "geopolitical horror stories" with the ending of the transit of gas through Ukrainian territory.
Between the lines of Gazprom's announcement read special message to Ukraine and Europe.
The essence of the message for Europe: in the perspective of 10-15 years, European countries would not be able to do without Russian gas, so exclusive logistics and price control rule gas belongs solely to Gazprom.
Kremlin offers Europe two options for fixing the problem: construction of "Turkish (South) potoka"libo applied to the pipeline "Opal" Third ènergopaketa to make full use of its infrastructure.
For Russia the most acceptable first version-the construction of South stream. It allows you to activate the national economy, and it jobs, domestic investment, infrastructure development. At the same time to project involves European countries additional expenses on the construction of the gas pipeline.
In the end, Moscow artificially creates a "gas problem" for European countries, pending its decision on the intellectual resources and political attention.
At the valdai Forum in Berlin, held on 13-14 April, in the shadow of left a message that Turkey intends to sell its stake in the project "Koh Chang"-Azerbaijani gas to Europe. Means real buyer will be Russia.
Moreover, Moscow early expressed its readiness to buy Azerbaijani gas field Shah Deniz. In the end, the Europeans again, there is no alternative to Russian gas.
For Ukraine, from a tactical point of view, this means that Moscow is already rehearsing next transit crisis "in the winter of 2015-2016, creates a corresponding information field to strengthen conflict situation.
On the other hand, Russia suffers the strategic importance of the Ukrainian gas transport system and natural gas storage facilities. Not coincidentally, such statements Moscow made synchronously with the adoption of the law of Ukraine on the gas market.
The document focuses on the formation of the national gas market, which is close to the European model. This will allow us to quickly and successfully integrate into the European gas market.
Customs Act proevropejskaâ the structure of the gas market of Ukraine is close and clear Western investor ready today to invest in national gas transport system and hydrocarbon storage capacity.
However, if there is no Russian gas transit, all our gas pipelines will turn into scrap and build separate branches for gas storage in terms of logistics and financial feasibility is absurd.
The more such information viruses will inject Russia in world space, the slower will visit Ukrainian energy market of the Western investor. But without Western investment Kiev will not be able to upgrade the gas infrastructure and bring it closer to European standards.
It is not excluded that, laying construction of South stream, Gazprom will propose buying Ukrainian gas pipeline for a ridiculous price.
So much so that Kremlin monopolist zarilsâ several times on gas transportation infrastructure, offering to pay its gas debts.
The Kremlin's threat to stop the transit of gas across Ukraine and toward Eastern European countries, primarily Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic.
The Slovak company EUstream invested 400 million euros in the modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system of high pressure and acted as operator of the pipeline, which connects Ukraine, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria.
Technical modernization allows EUstream provide daily reverse 40 million cubic meters of gas to Ukraine and, in the case of cessation of Russian gas transit company would incur serious losses.
Also loses its strategic importance and the financial attractiveness of 245 million project for the construction of the Polish-Ukrainian interkonektora, which is already in the process of being implemented. Decrease load and gas transportation system of the Czech Republic. Its operator-company-Net4Gas can also suffer losses.
Ukraine and Europe need to jointly prepare for the new round of the "gas war" with Russia, focusing on preventive activities and jointly building a strategic defense against gas attacks.
At the heart of the Russian gas transit blackmail is based not only on the energy independence of Ukraine, but also the security of Europe.