Russia and Turkey on the path of direct frontal impact: possible answer RUSSIA provoke Ankara even more severe reaction
The destruction of Russian Su-24 bomber Turkish F-16 fighter was the most serious incident between the two countries since the cold war. The plane crashed in Syrian territory. One pilot, apparently died (was killed on the ground), the fate of the second was unknown. According to some sources, he is held captive by Syrian Turkomans are related to Turks, ethnic minority living in the North-East of the country.
The Russian Ambassador in Ankara was summoned to the Foreign Ministry to present a note of protest against the invasion of the bomber in Turkish airspace, NATO is going to an emergency meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin, at which the shock was literally not individuals, made a very dramatic statement, accusing Ankara of betraying and calling the incident "a hit in the back by supporters of terrorists". At the same time, he promised "serious consequences" for Russian-Turkish ties. The State Duma has already demanded the severance of diplomatic and economic relations.
In this situation, the Turkish authorities did not go into the aggravation and make angry statements. In Ankara clarified that did not act against a particular country, but only to defend their borders against the offending military aircraft, not more. As evidence of their words they published the Russian bomber flight route, where you can see that it really briefly entered Turkish airspace.
Earlier, Turkey has repeatedly complained about the invasion of Russian aircraft, then was hit by a drone, so destruction of combat aircraft with crew-an absolutely logical continuation of this story. The Russian side, which denies the overflights over Turkey, seriously answer Ankara.
Some idea about further developments could be drawn up, based on the characteristics of the personalities of the Russian and Turkish Presidents-Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Both are authoritarian, antidemocratic, incredibly conceited rulers-militarists, up on the "revival of the great empire. On the one hand, the similarity of characters allowed them relatively easy to find a common language. On the other hand, both are totally dependent on the image that you created yourself "steep macho"-decisive leader, not fearing his power solutions. In confronting situations it makes them sheep on a narrow bridge-they are sšibat′sâ against each other and soon collapse into the abyss, than to lose the way each other. This feature of the characters makes the situation extremely dangerous.
Erdogan was imperative to show that he is a "real man", not "pulls the snot on the fist" (Putin's expression), and strictly protects the airspace of his country and-most importantly-Syrian Turkmen, who in recent days have found themselves in an extremely difficult situation because of the onset of the Syrian army and Russian bombardments. Ankara's statement that Russian aircraft 10 times warned that he is Turkish airspace is complete nonsense.
Judging even on a map of the Armenian of Turkey, the Su-24 was over this country no more than a few seconds. During this time, even one warning do not pronounce. Moreover, he was shot down over Syria. Brief invasion was used as a pretext for the destruction of Russian aircraft, bombâŝego Turkomans. In international practice, such incursions do not welcome, are the reason for the diplomatic démarches, but prior to the use of force since the cold war case has not reached.
The real reason for the attack-ground targets, and not in the pâtisekundnom invasion. Turkey previously expressed Russia's official protest against bombing of Turkmen settlements in northern Syria. Moreover, Ankara, not hiding, provides comprehensive support to adherents of "Turkish peace residing in Syria. Turkmens there believe "own" approximately the same extent that residents of Donbass "believe" in Moscow. Accordingly, the destruction of the Su-24 is analogous to the beginning of the "ptičkopada", announced in the separatist leaders "DNI". The meaning of èrdoganovskoj shares is this: we will not allow impunity to bomb those who believe ". This sort of announcement on the establishment of over Turkmen regions "of the no-fly zone."
Putin repeatedly stressed in their speeches that can respect public enemy, but categorically does not make those considered traitors. Erdogan, who only recently visited Moscow, the Russian President in the eyes of such a feature is certainly deserved. If Putin's character suddenly has not changed, all the powers of the Kremlin will be thrown for revenge "stops". Than it will turn, assume you can already now, precedents have already been. The first Turkish business would suffer, especially construction, occupying a considerable share of the Russian market. Track scan will begin and the persecution of the Turkish citizens-they will squeeze out of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION under different pretexts. "Turkish pipeline stream will never be. Tourist agencies shall prohibit work with Turkish resorts, and importers-from suppliers. State media will begin a mad antitureckaâ hysteria, capable of its size to outperform anti-Ukrainian.
From Russia we expect a sudden love for Kurds, previously in Moscow treated indifferently. The fact of the matter is that the Kurds Erdogan fears and hates stronger than anybody on this planet. Strictly speaking, only they can become an obstacle for the realization of his dream-the restoration of Ottoman Empire in all its splendor. Helping Kurds, Putin will directly work on the collapse of Turkey, which, of course, will cause a terrible rage.
At the same time in Syria against the Turkomans are thrown all the forces and means, if necessary, withdraw them from other directions. Revenge of the "supporters of terrorists" promises to be terrifying, they almost certainly will arrange some semblance of Grozny-with vacuum bombs, carpet bombing and all the rest. Now the bombers will fly under the guise of fighters, and the sky would be under permanent control of the AIR DEFENSE complexes previously imported into Syria. This is the direct road to new downed aircraft. With the already from both sides.
Such development is fraught with war-first between Russia and Turkey, and between Russia and NATO, with all the attendant consequences is extremely unpleasant for the rest of the world. Neither Putin nor Erdogan retreat is not collected. On possible impacts from Russia Turkey can answer, for example, the official introduction over northern Syria a "no-fly zone" by Moscow, of course, does not recognize. In this case, a direct military clash between will be almost inevitable.
Now much will depend on the outcome of the meeting of the NATO Council, which began on the evening of 24 November. On the one hand, the allies can fully support Turkey that will surely motivate Erdogan for more decisive action. With other Alliance countries can try to deter Ankara from escalating, trying to defuse the situation. But even the second option will not allow you to completely remove the problem, because the person, capable to calm the thirst for revenge of Putin, does not exist.
Russian and Turkish Presidents in a passionate desire to prove its "potency" summed up the world to the very brink. Now it only remains to hope that neighbors and partners will not allow "hot guys" this line to cross.