Russia abandons the ambitious project "South stream". Russian President Vladimir Putin made the announcement during a visit to Turkey. The formal reason for the failure of Bulgaria to give permission for construction works. But whether the case only in Bulgaria? That prompted the Kremlin to guide such a nepopulârnomu step? Can a project be resumed? That meant Mr Putin, speaking about "other markets" for Russian gas sales? What will happen to the energy sector of the country-aggressor?
These questions answered: "Explorer", the Deputy Director of the scientific and technical center "Psyche" Gennady Ryabtsev, the independent expert Volodymyr Saprikin, and former Commissioner of the President of Ukraine on international energy security Bogdan Sokolovsky.
-The reason for rejection of Russia from the project "South stream"-a solution for Bulgaria?
Hennadiy Ryabtsev: this decision was growing. It is connected not only with Bulgaria-it is associated with many events that occurred recently. in particular, a sufficiently serious fall in oil prices, which could lead to a sharp decrease and so small compared with past years Gazprom's revenues. Therefore, to the lack of the necessary funds to finance the construction of a gas pipeline.
Volodymyr Saprykin: I think that the decision of Bulgaria is the consequence and the reason is that the project does not meet the requirements of the European Union: cannot simultaneously be the owner of the gas producer. So Bulgaria and took such a decision.
That is, Putin's project to bypass Ukraine, reset its transit flows, collapsed.
Bohdan sokolovskyi: I think the reason is not in Bulgaria. Just Putin finally realized that sanctions the European Union is not a joke. Russia won't be able to pull this absurd draft yourself. In fact, the statement by Putin that the gas pipeline will not be made retroactively.
I don't think it was a voluntary decision by Russia.
-Can be relaunched the South Stream project?
Hennadiy Ryabtsev: despite all the problems, in my view, the suspension is temporary. "Gasprom" will make every possible effort to make this pipeline was completed.
Volodymyr Saprykin: nothing can be ruled out, but we can say that it has been postponed for many years, despite the losses incurred by the Russian side.
Bohdan sokolovskyi: I absolutely do not see any reason for the resumption of the project. All the more so because, as far as I know, in Australia (on G20 Summit-ed.) Obama showed Putin to develop new sources of energy. Thus, in ten years it may be that oil and gas are already irrelevant. In that case Russia will do-it's hard for me to
-Putin said: "we will promote (gas) to other markets." What new gas markets today are available for Russia?
Gennady Ryabtsev: This far political statements. I mean, of course, Asian markets, however, in order to promote something, you want to build gas pipelines. But to build a gas pipeline from scratch-this is certainly a difficult task. Promote, of course you can, but gas companies will be able to get through long enough.
As regards gas, liquefied natural gas, while opportunities are limited as insufficient capacity of the fleet, and low demand, which, inter alia, due to the sanctions.
What other markets? It seems to me that Gazprom should pay attention to the domestic market of the country, because even in the Moscow region half of the settlements is not piped gas available. So that is where to focus effort on the Russian monopolist.
Volodymyr Saprykin: this is a purely political statement. Indeed, the document was signed with China, by the way, is extremely unprofitable for Russia. But this is not a gas, which now comes in the EU. He could not be redeployed to China.
Perhaps speaking of new markets, Putin hints at Turkey, but Turkey more than ensured gas and transit routes. Therefore, this statement from powerlessness.
Bohdan sokolovskyi: I think this is nothing more than a bravurnoe statement. Recently a contract was signed with the Chinese, but it turned out that there is neither a project nor contract for the construction of a pipeline there. So all these statements about "other markets", not European, have no reason.
-How do you see the fate of Russia's energy industry, taking into account the economic sanctions imposed against the country?
Hennadiy Ryabtsev: with regard to the fate, it would be unfortunate if the price of oil on the world market will drop to a level of 50 dollars a barrel or below. If this price will hold for at least a few months, there will be very big questions to the management of oil and gas companies. Statement about wanting to sell 20% stake in Rosneft said that Russian companies are starting to feel the shortage of investment funds, without which it is very difficult to develop the industry.
Volodymyr Saprykin: while the sanctions did not apply to the gas industry. I think there will be change of managers in the gas sphere, since silly political projects cannot be pursued further, will the shortfall even to maintain the production and supply of gas. Now we need austerity, you can't throw money at purely political objectives. Gas will not withstand such loads.
In principle, gas reserves there, but about sales growth and increased production will have to forget, I think 5-7 years. Need money for the further development of the gas fields is possible in austerity mode. But we will not see a sharp rise.
Bohdan sokolovskyi: think sooner or later the Russian energy sector to close in on itself with all its oil and gas reserves. The fact is that Russia's economy is somehow built on excessive energy consumption. As soon as Russia will fall apart.
So is purely an internal market, the domestic consumer. Every year, the Russian economy will need an increasing amount of energy because they are not involved in modernization.
