The legitimacy of the authorities now bursting at the seams. Yes, rating 90%-demoniac. But the legitimacy of authority hangs in the balance.
Plums, Putin is likely to be linked to the final surrender of the Donbass. At least, the Kremlin has created all the conditions for external … say delicately, opponents, this advantage. How to start any revolution (coup, putsch)? From undermining the legitimacy of Government. Because the power in Russia very personified, the loss of legitimacy of the Putin podkosit the whole system of power under the root. This is the Achilles heel of the post-Soviet political system.
If the United States President's rating drops to zero, it does not threaten the stability of the system is to replace one of the clown on the other-and only. Sample plum Nixon during Watergate. Americans do not holodeût from the horror, wondering "if not Obama, who?". Likewise, the Germans did not stenaût "if not Merkel, who?". Swiss President's surname is of little interest at all, they associate themselves primarily with the community to which they belong. And what an amazing, extremely decentralized Swiss system power is phenomenally stable for centuries.
I hope no one will argue with the fact that in Russia the word "power" and "Putin" synonyms. You can name the surname even one Minister, Governor, Mayor or mp, who would publicly said that is an opponent of the President? I personally know one is Ilya Ponomarev, though he escaped to America and the other from there. Another known one Deputy Regional Sachs, who called Putin "jobnutym". But he lived after that long. Yup, Nemtsov his surname.
Of course, the only people, totally cut off from life, may think if Putin carries out the samoderžavnuû power. No, individual Putin. IN THE. is one of the attributes of power, talking head, the only objective of which is to ensure the legitimacy of power. And power is a kind of collective. The specific composition of collective Putin may vary. Recently, for example, Yakunin stopped being "Putin".
Just as different and weight of the participants of this OPG. Formally, Medvedev is the second person in the country, and in moments of frequent absence, Putin even individuals first. But, you see, that formally unrelated to Government Igorek Sechin has far greater influence on policy than a fool-Ajfonâ. A Finnish citizen Timchenko, residing in Switzerland, which is generally no associated with Russia, perhaps, will povesomee the Sechin. Or will not? I honestly forgot who the Kremlin the most authoritative pacanate boy, yes even if the hero of Russia, major-general Kadyrov.
So, individual Putin, who plays hockey, skating on skis, dives for amphorae, flies with sterhami, extinguish forest fires, labaet piano, teaches English, sings ballads, collects watches, pampers with gymnasts and kissing boys in tummy-just a screen, but if the screen falls and expose the naked King-collective of Putin, it will collapse and all pacanat. Therefore, the legitimacy of the brand "Putin" is the Foundation of kleptocratic regime only in Russia.
The legitimacy of the authorities now bursting at the seams. Yes, rating 90%-demoniac. Yes, passive endorsement of cattle almost total. Yes, the complete absence of opposition (not counting the same such small Bulk fraera, unable to win even in municipal elections in the province?). But the legitimacy of authority hangs in the balance. What is this legitimacy? I see two main factors-sytaya passivity and fear. With colour things are not bad and very bad. In 2013, the 49% rossiancev survived in the amount of not more than 10 thousand. rub. per month. According to data, 2015. such was the less-only 46%. Cheers, welfare is growing! That's just inflation pre-crisis 10 thousand is $ 312, and today the same amount pulls at only $ 130. While 15% of the population "šikuet" with only 8 k. rub. in a month or less, and 13 per cent survive on less than 5 thousand. Comments here are superfluous.
Therefore, the lack of a fed apathy regime has to compensate for the increase in the proportion of fear. What rossiancy are afraid of most? Literally got stuck only genetically would there be no war. But the madness is that the Kremlin is just started two wars: one in Ukraine, another in Syria, that izdyhaûŝej of the economy, to put it mildly, burdensome. Then there are the masses now frighten not war, and that war will come home to us, if we do not win the enemy little blood on its territory. Thus internal trend works to undermine the legitimacy of the regime is internally absolutely everything goes bad, absolutely nothing to brag about. So legitimacy is provided increasingly by external trend-wringer Crimea, Donbass, pèrèmogami successful "struggle with GAM" in Syria, escalating hatred for Turkey and America. This and provided 90% rating glasterha.
Here only the Kremlin, putting its legitimacy in dependence on external factors, got into a deadly trap. If you compile a motivational map, i.e. exploded legitimacy Putin's constituents identify factors underlying loyalty of the masses, you get something like the following:
-Putin, because he is the guarantor of the Crimea;
-Putin, because otherwise Banderas doctorate Donbass (ukrainofobii factor);
-Putin, because otherwise the State Department arrange Maidan (amerikanofobii factor);
-Putin, because otherwise DAIŠ to arrange the massacre in Russia (terrorofobii factor).
Actually, the fear factor provides almost 100% of the regime's legitimacy. Even under "Crimean" component of the rankings no longer dominates the Imperial Russian expansion pathos of the world, namely the fear of a humiliating loss of production. Actually, almost exclusively the pocreotnâ justifies war on Donbas-like, we'd and delighted not to climb in Ukrainian Affairs, but are forced to-if upropy crush Donbass, then immediately put the issue of the return of the Crimea.
Logic words blunt pocreotni is, but it means that Russia should seek to win the war-only it finally withdraw the Crimean issue from the agenda. While the Kremlin by provoking war in the Donbass (everyone remembers, as Putin stated that protects the Russians in the Southeast?), obosralsâ of fear, and even thought does not allow victory. A unique case in the history of the war is not to win, not for the sake of production, not for the sake of protection from the enemy, but in order to nullify its draw. The war for the sake of a particular person botoksnogo person.
That is why, when the RUSSIAN army, vtorgšaâsâ on the territory of Ukraine under the guise of "holiday", actually defeated the APU in August-September 2014, when Government forces fled in panic from Moscow joined a stop order insurgentam banned even occupy an abandoned enemy Mariupol. And immediately followed by Minsk-1, whose whole purpose was to vytorgovyvaniû the Kremlin terms of honorable surrender.
Ooops! And here the Kremlin suffers a catastrophe-neither the EU nor Ukraine nor, moreover, the United States, behind them, not taken from Putin offers complete party "draw". They desire only unconditional surrender-returning Crimea, payment of damages to the injured party. The Kremlin could not go for these conditions, but no trumps.
To continue the "war to the bitter end" Putin in Donbass can not, because in this case, follow not decorative sanctions against individuals like prokurorši nâš-Nhan and finskopoddannogo Timchenko, and real sanctions against RUSSIA as a State, until the full trade embargo. Given the absolute dependence of the Russian economy from external markets and imports, this would mean almost instant collapse of the whole project "Resource Federation." Believe me, in the present circumstances the world easily cost and without our oil, and without aluminum, so much so that it is not about, but rather about weeks. That is, even rejection of gas supplies from Russia, if it happens in the summer, will not have any visible effects for Europe (main, in advance to a dozen from Qatar LNG terminals). The regime will collapse by autumn, the new Government would be forced to capitulate on terms of the West and the gas goes again through the pipes.
Why the West has still not realized this script? And why risk before uncontrolled chaos in nuclear power yet formally? Russia is not Afghanistan, not Libya and not even Syria, where you can take the case to a bloody chance. The strategy here is quite different-a slow but correct strangulation victims, which every minute loses the will to resist.
Kremlin same, feeling that his legitimacy loses base increasingly loses the will to fight, goes on the more and more concessions. In fact, the Kremlin Suffered already agreed to surrender in return for vague promises of the special status of the rebel regions. Propaganada already started to explain country wisdom the next HSP-like, we don't just rent LuganDoniû Kiev, we thus podkidyvaem Ukraine "Chechnya", which it will Digest for decades, and until the Digest, Crimea is ours. And anyway, it's still a question, who has. However, and here Putin suffered deafening fiasco-Poroshenko cynically stated that no special status for the region and even parts of the unitary "Ukrainian State do not receive.
Now answer the elementary question: what is to be the outcome of a game of chess when one chess (collective West) wants to win, and the other (collective Putin) blackmails his opponent so that in case of a tie, it will not come to grief. But refuse-he cannot! Waiver of games already means defeat, albeit without showy Mata, but defeat.
The refusal of the Donbas eager party means that APU goes on the offensive and within three weeks from LuganDoniej without the intervention of the Russian army will be eliminated. And the intervention of "holiday" will entail regular Minsk-3, where collective Putin will have the position even weaker than during the Minsk-1 regardless of where the front line will be held.
In General, the question is: is the Kremlin to allow military rout of Donbass or not? If he were to allow the defeat of LuganDonii, rating Putin collapses below plinth, because at negative successes within the country to suffer defeat at the external fronts means that King did not live up to the trust of the masses, not only made the war (which is in itself a bad thing), but lost it. While formally he loses it is not NATO and the United States, and Ukraine. Is it possible to imagine a greater shame for a possessed?
But the Kremlin has another military problem is Syria. In this war, Putin climbed into the soveršnno insane hoping to "zero out" the Ukrainian question. But he not only decided the Ukrainian problem, and acquired some new, including problems with Turkey, which was once considered almost another RUSSIA along with China and Venezuela. Now the Kremlin regime resembles an Acrobat, and drunken, who is desperately teetering over the mire, standing on two rotten bogs-Syria and Ukraine. If at least one leg fly-Acrobat will sink.
So, Let's imagine hypothetically that in may 2016 g. Ukraine begins the General offensive in Donbass. West on this occasion is that the express duty concerns and urge the parties to the conflict to engage in dialogue. And here's the Kremlin will put before the fact: any interference in the conflict, or at least help the rebels would ensure that the Assad regime in Syria will be overthrown. This is not just a very simple-to kill himself. In fact, there isn't even a collective Assad, there physical death dictator means a complete collapse of the regime.
Not work fix Assad? Yes and linkbacks, means the rebels will be given the command to start the offensive. Not necessarily take Sturm Damascus, enough to move the front line at 15 km to Latakia to Hmejmim air force base ended up in the range of artilleriijskogo fire. And artillery at the rebelov appears, do not doubt it, Turkish "voentorg" trick will do. And Putin to shame take the legs out of Syria.
You will not be able to push the front Mujahedin 15 km? Linkbacks from the current positions of the jihadists can turn Hmejmim and port Latakiû airbase in the ruins with the help of MLRS. From where they were to join rocket launchers? So the "voentorg" willing, and announce that trophy. The Kremlin will be impotent hysterics shouting "Vyfsëvrete, this Turkish Setup!", but what he can do other than yelling? Relations with Turkey are already corrupted, Erdogan's hand untied.
Realizing that the Syrian "ratsuk has led Moscow to complete assholes, Putin began to bargain and to surrender in Syria. The meaning of the sentence is that the West takes RUSSIA in its antidaiševskuû Coalition to save face, but instead Putin merges. And again mnogohodovoček Wizard shamefully fucked up. West uhmyločkuoj said that Putin does not need assistance. As a result, Syria acts three coalition-Russian (Russian Federation, Iran and Assad) Western (United States, United Kingdom, France, Turkey, Kurds and PAS) and Saudi, which essentially is a branch of the Western coalition. I do not exclude that DAIŠ and also dancing under the Washington tune. Chance to win Putin there is even a hypothetical. But the chance to get caught up in a conflict that will devour more and more funds and effort-100%.
The question is: why did the West if can easily throw off RUSSIA from Syria as described above, does not do this? And why? It's the same: one megaohrenitel′no your enemy (Putin) waters of another enemy (DAIŠ), without the slightest chance of success. And while the RUSSIAN FEDERATION forces in Syria, she can't take on Ukraine. And if take-will receive the rout in Syria and the collapse of the Putin regime. Or does not receive, and happen to Minsk-3 and the slow strangulation of the Èrèfii will continue. Absolutely in any case West remains aloof, but WINS, with proxy (Ukrainian or modžahedskimi). Yes, herovyj of naperstočnika Putin turned chess!
Where West rush? Time works against Putin. So the war will be. Not even an hour, partners in Afghanistan Vova zataschat. The legitimacy of the regime will continue to fall, oil is cheaper, the situation of cattle-deteriorate. And one year later (two, three, four, yes even five) Putin's regime overthrown by the current uporotye putinisty-skirt by Tunisian scenario. But there is another version of the collapse of the regime more likely.
