The main effect of the incident on the Syrian-Turkish border: the Kremlin in disarray, Turkey in rage.
In General, these events cause many associations.
"Warned same-did not fly in" our sky ", is a word of Donbass" warlord "by Igor Strelkova. He wrote them in the social network Facebook July 17, 2014 onwards, when he was sure that the downed aircraft is owned by the separatists of the Ukrainian air forces. Later this entry was deleted because it turned out that the fallen Board is a civilian Boeing.
I'm not going to compare Turkish air force defense with them. The only reason I remembered this phrase — Turks also expressly warned not to fly in their sky. The "sky" here, not even in a figurative and literal sense.
Warning came in October, when Turkey was hit by a drone over its territory. By the way, downed then-"Eagle-10" — was produced in Russia. While Ankara stressed that will not hesitate to destroy invading its airspace. Even then, there were fears that more serious incidents.
But back to the present situation. It is reported that the downed aircraft Su-24 had originally been warned about violating the border. It can be assumed that this warning had not received proper reaction, therefore, Turkey decided to destroy the intruder.
It is reported that Su-24 pilots ejected and survived, but at the moment, about their fate are received conflicting information. Presumably one of them was killed and the second could get captured.
Moscow hastened to say that the plane did not break the Syrian-Turkish border. In fact, a request not to be expected. The Kremlin is not able to admit mistakes, and tactics "total denial" applies to them is not the first and not even the second time. So Moscow's position is hardly someone especially of interest.
Interesting how the situation turned out to be the Kremlin after the incident. Let's start with the fact that the situation is, to put it mildly, cannot be called an enviable. Firstly, Turkey is a NATO member. Violation of Russian airspace aircraft can be seen as intrusions into the total space security alliance. The decision by Turkey to destroy the intruder suggests that Ankara saw the plane vtorgšemsâ in its airspace, a threat. While Turkey may appeal to the fifth article of the Treaty, NATO — it just approved the principles of collective security alliance. So the plane incident potentially is a matter not only of Turkey and Russia and NATO. Here Moscow turns out to be actually one against 28 member countries of the Alliance.
The second important point — recall the recent Moscow cozying up with Ankara. At the end of last year, announcing the termination of the project, the South stream gas pipeline, Vladimir Putin personally announced the new Turkish-direction. Repeatedly noted that Turkey is chosen as a partner because it does not belong to the European Union. At the same time stopping the South Stream project was to punish Moscow podčinivšihsâ not members of the EU — Bulgaria and Hungary. If anything, last May and would not oppose concessions to the Kremlin, but objectively could not do so because of requirements that apply in the EU single market.
Also recall that the "South stream", and then "Turkish flow" was to "punish" Ukraine, leaving her in the long term without Russian gas transit. All of this is consistent with the principles and strategies of the Moscow energy wars.
Turkey then adopted a proposal Moscow with low-key benevolence, but almost immediately began to dictate terms, knowing full well that the Kremlin this project is necessary, while for Ankara, he does not have priority. It can be assumed that this greatly puzzled the Russian leadership, which has already been prigotovilos′ to be friends with the Turks, "against the EU. The result of all this, too, is known for — "Romanian stream" at the moment, more dead than alive.
So with Turkey did not work out and hardly arise, particularly after the incident with the Su-24.
There are also extreme confusion in Moscow. So far no clear reaction from the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry had not even bothered to (feared?) ridden protest. The maximum that we could come up with Russian politicians to "punishment of Turkey" is, in the words of the first Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on defense of Sergei Žigareva, limit the possibility of Russian tourists vacationing on the shores of the Turkish "Hotels".
At the same time, Turkey is set up very strongly. Ankara sparked carpet Russian Ambassador, at her request an emergency meeting was convened today to NATO.
It seems that this is the moment when Putin and the Kremlin (i.e. "collective Putin") again "all beat". Yourself first.
Viktor Denisenko, Newsader