What are the risks for Ukraine bears return of Crimea and the optimal strategy leveling

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Crimean theme continues to be the focus of Ukrainian mass media due to ènergoblokady. However, last Friday the ex-President of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk made a number of statements that need to be considered in the context of the expanded Russia discourse "about reconciliation." These statements may be in the new touchstone models for Russia's withdrawal from the conflict in the Donbass region. We therefore examine them in detail and try to predict the consequences if this approach will be implemented.

So, what's so interesting about Leonid Kravchuk said?

"We must offer new policy approaches in the Donbass and new, perezagružennye, political approaches to the Crimea, if we really want to Crimea was with Ukraine. I don't want to say that he again returned to Ukraine and was as it was before, it's unreal setting, but policy needs to be restarted, "said Kravchuk.

In this case, first the President drew the attention of that before annexation of Crimea by Russia of the peninsula did not have state autonomy within Ukraine.

"We need to be wise and propose things that knows the history of the world. I want to suggest that Russia requested exactly such a proposal can not now, maybe after a while, when the situation changes, "said Kravchuk, noting that when the oil price drops to $ 20 a barrel, then it will be easier to talk with Russia.

"And Russia will understand, not because it would give Crimea or provide a different status of Crimea, but because she felt already that the Ukrainian Crimea without a full, live can not», — stressed Kravchuk.

At the same time, the first President of Ukraine believes that it is not necessary to build the illusion that raising the standard of living on the Mainland will help return the Crimea: never social issues would not solve the problem of Crimea, the Crimean issue is a political question. political issue not only for Ukraine, but Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine and the world ".

Frankly, any man who is friends with the head of this kind of statements put into a stupor. What is the wide autonomy of Crimea? It can give Ukraine? Over the years, Ukraine dotirovala Crimea, he had virtually complete cultural autonomy. Pro-Russian organization feel at home there and played an important role in the annexation of the Crimea. And that got Kiev in the end? Why Leonid Kravchuk invites us to take at any price this suitcase without a handle? And here is the key question.

Imagine that we have given wide autonomy to Crimea. Imagine that Russia, under pressure from us West Crimea gave. What will be the consequences?

Firstly, we get almost 2 million. vatnikov, which significantly change the balance in national elections. And this preschool age are evil because they pulled out of Lona "mother Russia." These preschool age come back together with the LNR-DNI, which, "silver-haired Sage also gave wide autonomy. After all, if Russia has returned to Crimea, what problems return ruined Donbass. Total together with Donbass we get 5, 5 million vatnikov, and this is good old hand "Hear the Donbass, you owe us, no fascism, NATO Friday. This whole "cotton beauty" climbs in the Verkhovna Rada, and so there may be conditions that it can even sformrovat′ Government. And I'm afraid that in this case the wide autonomy will ask Western Ukraine.

Secondly, wide autonomy means more rights than it had before the annexation. More likely means that local authorities will make those who have allowed the annexation of Crimea. And Kiev will not influence this process. It also probably means that military base in Sevastopol remains. Because local authorities are not against it, and on the opinion of Kiev she couldn't care less. And this means that we will continue to have a permanent threat of annexation in any moment. That is, we're just sitting on the same rake.

Thirdly, it means that the Crimea will demand new subsidies. You're laughing, but it will be formulated as "need to strengthen loyalty". Funny, isn't it? The region really Kiev does not control, but grant pays. Sharman, Sharman. In doing so, wide autonomy will surely implies special preferences for the Russian capital and it was not clear how this is consistent with the EU-Ukraine FTA, and generally with the Association. Means you will need a special customs regime. If not, the Crimea will indeed hole through which smuggling from Russia will unravel throughout Ukraine are provoking a conflict of interests with Europe.

Fourthly, Tatars and Ukrainian Loyalists who fled from there, will try to win back their positions and their property. BTW, about the ownership, only claim 15 submits Kolomoisky million dollars on his property in Crimea. So, our return to Crimea would lead to conflicts. And Ukraine that? She will not be able to protect our citizens, because of Crimea autonomy, which implies its security forces, its courts and, in General, all his, with just formal ownership of Ukraine's peninsula.

So what we get in the format of broad autonomy to Crimea in the composition of Ukraine. Yes, we get nothing. Control does not receive compensation for war do not get. Get in the Verkhovna Rada of Crimea. Get Central Government paralysis and disputes over where to go West or East. Get to the essence of the ballast, which will need to feed and maintain its collapsing infrastructure, where the matter will get investment from abroad. Get a Russian base on the territory of Ukraine, which again at any moment can use against us. Get serious conflicts within countries that can develop into a new military confrontation.

And quite unintelligent story has a precedent where a similar model was implemented in Kosovo. Yes, yes Kravchuk and his ilk "Peace Doves" offer another medvedčukovskij vtûhivaniû plan Ukraine Donbass and Crimea may with broad autonomy on Kosovo with Serbia.

Version 2.0 of Kosovo solves one key task — the salvation of Russia by withdrawing it from under the sanctions of the West, and Ukraine turns in nedogosudarstvo, which has no control over its territory, but formally exists. Exactly to the point where legalized as a part of Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass does not hold their referendum and already in the legal field. Without sanctions and indemnities. And with them may leave a number of regions in the East and West of the country. That is, Ukraine simply cease to exist, because all regions be weary of chaos and the inability of the Kiev State. If you want to look at the future of this Ukraine, then just look at Serbia and Kosovo today.

According to the Constitution of Serbia, the territory of the Republic of Kosovo is part of the Republic of Serbia and includes it as the autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija, but Kosovo authorities of Serbia not controlled. Part of Kosovo, populated mostly by Serbs, is not subject to the authorities in Pristina. February 17, 2008, the Parliament of Kosovo announced independence of Kosovo unilaterally. So far this quasi-State does not have sustainability. In particular, today the opposition Protesters pelted the Parliament of Kosovo firebombs. And all because 23 December the Constitutional Court of Kosovo approved the agreement, according to which the living ethnic Serbs in the country will get more rights in the country. Understand the logic, eh? The same logic is seen in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro. We painted the problem here and here.

So let's call a spade a spade, Ukraine is not ready to return Crimea. Moreover, it is simply an if given the "gift" of today. Before taking control of the peninsula, you need to take control of Ukraine. To implement real reforms, remove paramilitarnye structure of everyday life, to crush the bandits, to build a powerful army, in short, begin to grow and gain inner strength. And that's when this upgraded Ukraine based on their long-term interests will be able to put on the agenda the question of the return of the Crimea or placed, if you understand that it is not profitable. For example, today South Korea is not trying to take control of the DPRK, because the costs exceed the benefits. Let's think State policy in terms of benefits to the country.

In its history, many countries have gained and lost territory. You can definitely say that it is not always when they acquired the territory they have won and not always when they have lost territory, they lost. Malaysia expelled from the Federation in 1965 Singapore year and eventually won, and Malaysia and Singapore. Poland has lost many territories during its history, but today Poland one of the most powerful and advanced European countries. Turkey has lost 80 per cent of the territory of the Ottoman Empire, but 100 years later who can say that Turkey is a weak State? States determine not only territory but, above all, his philosophy of life, growing from generalized historical experience of society which creates stable institutions capable of the most rational way to manage society, manage resources, set the right long-term objectives and to correct errors. Ukraine will be strong when it will have such a philosophy, and such a State.

However, let us consider a situation when the upgraded Ukraine alone will return the Crimea. Objectively, there are pros in the possession of the peninsula. If that happens, Ukraine will not have to give any extensive autonomy to Crimea.

Firstly, because returning to the Crimea will be possible only as a result of the weakness of Russia and a favourable external environment for us. This means that we will be able to set the political regime on the peninsula, which will guarantee us the most effective management of the region.

Secondly, such management should include deprivation of political rights of crimeans. All who participated in the referendum should be deprived of the right to vote and to be elected to Central and local government bodies. Let's say 20 years. Then on the agenda will be removed the threat that they will affect the adoption of important decisions in the country. On this path of Latvia, which went to block Russian-speaking non-citizens status through vatnikov.

Thirdly, the current political elite of Crimea should go to jail or be exiled to Russia, its property should be nationalized. This will guarantee the stability of the situation on the peninsula and in the Ukraine.

Fourthly, in Crimea should be introduced colonists from veterans of the ATO to settle across the peninsula at key points to ensure control. Such policies have been implemented by Turkey in the Kurdish regions in Eastern Anatolia.

Fifthly, WYB RF in Sevastopol should be closed, move the Ukrainian NAVY, the city itself can be transformed into a free port.

Whether there will be such and such autonomy Crimea Ukraine? No. Why? If all the main tasks solved and Crimea will be enough legal framework of Ukraine to develop successfully.

However, we can simulate a situation where Ukraine can be advantageous to use a wide autonomy within the solution to their problems. And this autonomy should be Crimean-Tatar. But if we start to play such a card, you must understand that its meaning can only play if we fundamentally change our attitude towards the southern vector of our foreign policy. First of all, to relations with Turkey.

In this case, we must play the Crimean map through the prism of decision the key problem of Ukraine today is its survival. To Ukraine survived, she should have strong allies. Turkey can be an ally, so much so that after the incident with the Su-24 real conflict arose between Moscow and Ankara. However, he may at any time stop, because Turkey and Russia has a system that they bring. First of all, in the economic sphere. In this logic, if the Crimean map creates conditions for long-term conflict, Turkey and Russia, its need to play that way. If Ukraine would give the national autonomy of Crimean Tatars, Turkey will support us. In Turkey there are about 5 million. the man with the Crimean-Tatar roots. We get a strong ally that can connect to the solution of the Tatar question the League of Arab States, the Muslim State in the UN, etc. d. We will have additional levers of pressure on Moscow.

This maneuver should provide a platform for the expansion of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the long term. If Kiev and Ankara agree to transform the Black Sea in European Lake "in close cooperation with the EU, the United States, NATO, the new regional structure will begin to emerge that can be formalized in the form of a Union (Association) of Black Sea States. It can be podtaŝit′ with the Baltic States and Poland and all the prerequisites for the institutionalization of the Baltic-Black Sea arc that can become as an alternative within the corkscrew the EU and its partner.

On the prospects of rapprochement with Turkey and under the project ESS we write in more detail later, but today we must understand that any strategy aimed at creating this configuration should have as a goal for Ukraine a situation better than today. It will have its own price. Crimea in this case may well be part of the Ukraine, but Turkey will receive preference, for example, in the field of Economics, which will have long-term consequences for Ukraine and the region. Crimean Tatars also expand their influence, which will increase as will change the demographic balance in their favor (if changed).

Another option, when the Crimea will be turned into a buffer territory under the joint authority of Ukraine, Turkey with functions offshore.

In short, options can be mass, but we must understand that our win will not necessarily involves returning Crimean configuration as it was before March 2014 years. Crimea, Donbass, as well as can be and must be drawn in such a way that won Ukraine in General. And to do this you need to stop to draw a patriotic picture when tired from lack of electricity, crimeans will reset the puppet regime aksenova and Ukraine would return to the peninsula. The stakes are too high in this game, because there will be no miracles. Just need to cool and get ready to play sparingly in a configuration that will create preconditions to stabilize Ukraine and strengthen its position in the region.

HVILYA

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