Why Lavrov flew to Aliyev?

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov could not be regarded as a rare guest in Azerbaijan. But backstage information, present his arrival in Baku wore a rather unexpected. As reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is "working visit" during which Lavrov will discuss with the Azerbaijani side on "issues of bilateral and multilateral agenda, as well as the situation in the region".

Information is pretty scant. It was not made clear neither Lavrov nor President Ilham Aliyev. The first said that Moscow is counting on Azerbaijan's participation in the exhibition of the military-technical products, which will be held in September in the Sverdlovsk region. He also said that Azerbaijan will visit Minister of industry and trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov. According to Lavrov, Russian-Azerbaijani economic relations go upward and that Moscow is pleased to increase supply in the RUSSIAN FEDERATION the Azerbaijan agricultural products. As far as the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, Lavrov was limited to the following statement: "I hope that progress will be made".

Aliyev, in turn, stressed that Baku high valued arrival in Azerbaijan for the first European Game of Russian President Vladimir Putin: "it's worth, this is a prime indicator of the high level of our relations". Azerbaijani President, moreover, reaffirmed his country's attitude to the continuation of effective and successful development of bilateral relations with Russia.

The word, like any food for thought direct speech and Lavrov were not given, although the unexpected visit of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Azerbaijan suggests many thoughts. That the sides discussed Karabakh issue in doubt, of course, no. But what is important is what proposals on Nagorno-Karabakh are in the process of development, bearing in mind, first, that the situation in the conflict zone worsens with every passing day, and secondly that Russia seeks to individually affect Karabakh "exodus", kupiruâ initiatives of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and, especially, the American segment of the "peacekeeping" structure.

True, Assistant Professor of foreign area studies and foreign policy of the RUSSIAN Sergey Markedonov believes that Lavrov's visit to Baku not associated with any breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict, and seeks to maintain at a certain level of constructive relations with Azerbaijan. As informed by RIA Novosti expert, "it's not a relationship as an alliance with Armenia, where there are preferential rates, military base and so on. Here's a more pragmatic attitude. Azerbaijan teeters.

He also believes that Lavrov's visit to Baku to begin talks on joining Azerbaijan to EEMA. "Do not enter. Azerbaijan is quite pragmatic and selfish in the good sense of the word country, "Markedonov said.

A view of mp, political analyst Rasim Musabekov. In his view, the purpose of the visit was Lavrov in Baku-convince the Azerbaijani side in the feasibility of proposals Moscow on the Karabakh issue. As informs Sputnik (Baku), Musabekov on his Facebook page posted the following: "bearing in mind that about a month ago, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov had committed a similar visit to Moscow, a special need for consultations between the heads of Foreign Affairs departments were not. It can therefore be assumed that passed through Mammadyarov any Russian proposals (most likely, on the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict), did not cause a positive reaction in the highest of the Azerbaijani leadership, and Lavrov arrives in Baku in order to personally give the necessary explanations and to convince the feasibility of their adoption ".

Musabekov believes that short-term working visit of the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov to Turkey last week, where he held talks with his Turkish counterpart, and the current visit of Lavrov in Azerbaijan are interrelated. "The question is so important that before you say" Yes "or" no ", there was a need to consult with our strategic ally Turkey", he explained. And added: the essence of Russia's proposals on the conclusion of negotiations on Karabakh deadlock and the price requested by Moscow for its "good offices", will be known only from the subsequent course of events ".

Meanwhile, the "price for the good of the service" can be a final agreement to return to the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Russian radar. We remind that recently spread information according to which, in Azerbaijan in the year 2017 will begin construction of the station solely Russian authority. Some experts have called that prospect "Duck" — say, not Baku refused Moscow three years ago to extend the operation of the RADAR STATION daryal in qabala, and Russia had kompensatornom order to build a similar station in Armavir.

That is, it is a question of deepening Russian-Azerbaijani military-technical relations that have recently rebounded and scare. And the opening of a Russian radar station in Azerbaijan for Armenia hereby blow because it is deprived of the exclusive right of "cover-up" in the southern Caucasus, the Russian military base, because RADAR essentially itself.

In addition, for several months Moscow hints at the fact that the Karabakh conflict found and Yerevan have almost no doubt that in favor of Azerbaijan. So the visit of Lavrov in Baku to Yerevan can be considered if not very dangerous, highly intriguing.

Another version of Lavrov's visit to Baku was voiced by Milli Majlis mp Zahid Oruj. In his view, the visit of Lavrov is directly connected with the regional processes. Specifically, "the confrontation between the West and Russia continues to deepen. On the other hand, the lifting of sanctions with Iran changes the situation in the region, forcing the Kremlin to act more actively ". In all these regional affairs present NATO and strengthening its military presence in Georgia and Ukraine, and the United States to turn toward the conflict in Georgia and Russia confrontation. "This policy of Washington is aimed at weakening Russia's presence in the South Caucasus region", said Oruj.

The main purpose of the visit of Lavrov in Azerbaijan he called to clarify the position of official Baku on all the above issues and noted the importance of Azerbaijan's position in the region and on the international scene. "Azerbaijan, on the one hand, builds relationships with NATO, on the other hand, Azerbaijan builds mutually beneficial relations with Russia, without joining the anti-Russian sanctions," recalled Oruj.

He also confirmed that parties negotiate and the Karabakh conflict. "NATO has led in these regions of unresolved conflicts. If the political leadership of Russia did not leave frozen conflicts in Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Transnistria, the NATO intervention in these regions would have occurred with such speed. Therefore, Russia's political elite should make a lesson out of this situation. If Moscow wants to get the support of the region, it should go to the decisive steps towards solving the territorial integrity of those States, "said Oruj.

In all likelihood, "decisive steps" in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement and led Lavrov in Baku. But it's quite narrow understanding of the issue, since the Karabakh conflict cannot be regarded as a single problem not related to processes in the Middle East, bordering the Caucasus. Given the intensification of Russia in the Middle East, it would be logical to think that a similar activation must occur and the southern Caucasus. Both of these intertwined region seriously enough, and the relationship between them is quite ambiguous. And key player of the vast segment of these relationships is exactly Azerbaijan that has some friction with Iran, supporting Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is in close cooperation with Turkey, competing with Iran, and podportivšej relations with Russia because of its pro-American position classes on the soil of Iraq and Syria.

So, presumably, Lavrov's visit to Baku letter jumps tied on big contradictions in ensuring regional security and to strengthen Russia's influence in two parallel bordering each other regions. Including, with a view to Karabakh settlement Moscow scenario was not included in contradiction with the understanding of this issue, Iran and Turkey.

Of course, the relative political calm must arrange for Azerbaijan-at least, it must adapt to new geopolitical realities, in which Tehran is edging closer to Moscow, and the closest ally Turkey, by contrast, moves away from Russia.

That Russia should take up Karabakh peace process itself, said publication of 1news.az and Azeri political scientist Tawfiq Abbasov. "Russia has its own strategic interests in the post-Soviet space and therefore should have their say. Russia should take the initiative in their own hands, taking into account the fact that the Moscow-Baku and Moscow-Yerevan a clear dialogue and have something to discuss, "he said.

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