Judging by the flow of information, which relates to the possible Russia's participation in military operations in the Middle East, we can conclude that the question about this not simply decided at the political level, but is already under implementation. Not a day goes by that world and domestic media has not reported the frequent flights of Russian ships and transport aircraft to Syria, gave data on transfers there modern tanks, helicopter gunships, artillery, and other heavy military equipment, as well as people in camouflage uniforms without markings.
However, it seems that one thing will not be limited to arms. Many modern local conflicts with millions of victims began precisely with the supply of weapons and "advisors" and the continued introduction of the regular army.
The seriousness of the Russian leadership to get involved in the Syrian conflict and said the recent visit of Vladimir Putin in Dushanbe at the CSTO Summit, where the Russian leader urged to unite in the fight against GAM, "forgetting about geopolitical interests."
For the exact wording I would suggest call a spade a spade. For example, a war called the war, not "specoperaciej" or "fight against terrorism". The word "Syria" in this context, incidentally, also looks like a euphemism. And not just because government troops controlled only 20% of the territory of this country, and because Syria will not be limited to this war. Its main purpose is declared "Islamic State", as it is known, does not recognize borders, and most already controls not only a part of Syrian territory, but part of Iraq. And this means war against it will largely be a war without borders.
But you must still ask the main question: why Russia participated in a large war in the Middle East? What are her motives when she still really vvâžetsâ in it?
Before answering the first question, it should be noted that Russia, if we mean by the word of its people as a whole, rather than individual amateurs to shoot on living targets do not need neither Syrian nor Ukrainian, no other war. War (and there is nothing original here) need its ruling class, who apparently intends to resolve in a way some of its foremost internal problems. In this approach, by the way, too, is nothing new. Most wars are always ensue from problems within the country, which the Government tried to solve by external expansion.
Let me remind you the main headache of the current Russian ruling class. He has, as a result of his "far-sighted" policies in Ukraine, as well as due to falling world oil prices over the past year and a half have dramatically decreased revenue from energy supplies abroad. Accordingly, the harder to contain power apparatus that guarantee its dominance, all the more difficult to buy the location of the majority of people with his already not too high salaries and pensions. And it means that his position is becoming less sustainable. This seems to be a problem in the first place, and to address in the Kremlin, taking the Syrian map.
Syria, however, Moscow is not needed because there have special feelings for Assad, and not as a source of resources, of which there is particularly no. Syria is needed as the gateway and springboard for advance in the region in which a significant portion is extracted exported West Japan and China oil.
Modern Russia, the lion's share of the income that is generated by energy exports, this war is to solve several problems at once. Firstly, large-scale fighting in the Middle East region by themselves even more destabilizing it, and thus can lead to higher oil prices, falling so heavily hit on the Russian economy. Secondly, it is the prospect of the establishment of the political and military a beachhead in the heart of Middle East oil. In addition to renewed, thanks to Russian military assistance to the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, such a springboard even more can become any tumor type of an independent Kurdish State.
Having before such bases can not only influence the world oil prices, but also to gain access to the rich stocks of "black gold" in the region. Thus, entering here, the Kremlin may take the West for "oil udder" and try to make it more pliable. This is the primary goal. And refugees, atrocities fighters is an occasion, "kindly" provided by the same "Islamic State".
Here it is necessary to recall that, according to one version, a proposal to participate in the fight against Islamists in Syria in Exchange for a reduction of Russian activity in the East of Ukraine, the Russian Government has received from the United States. Of course, participation in the framework already established "antiigilovskoj coalitions" of NATO countries and the Persian Gulf. Now, when it is revealed that Moscow has committed itself to creating your own coalition against GAM, which is expected to consist of former Soviet republics that are members of the CSTO, the Kurds and the Syrian Government army, the Americans are starting to bite your elbows.
"The President of the United States Barack Obama believes that Russia's actions in Syria can prevent the United States and they led the Coalition to find a political solution to the situation in the country. "We'll let Russia know that she can not go all-in in a strategy that is doomed to failure," said the us President, "voice of America reported.
However, something tells me that in the current international situation, even if Russia and not invited, she would herself came to the Middle East, without asking permission from anyone.
However, if the reasons for the new adventures all less clear about its impact today is anyone's guess. Some of them can already predict. The main problem for Russia is that the United States in the Middle East is real and vital economic interests in the country. It's not Ukraine, with which the States economically communicated little and associates. From the Middle East region in the United States receives about 30 percent of imported oil.
From this we can conclude that such a toothless West policy, which we have witnessed in Ukraine, when Russia will join Syria, already just will not. For their is not verbal, but quite specific economic interests, the United States and its allies would have to fight for real. And this conflict are much more likely to grow from a regional to global.
It is believed that the United States and Russia can agree on how to divide Syria and the Middle East in General. Perhaps it has a right to exist, but the problem is that while much suggests otherwise. In addition to global players here and there are a number of regional, which, under the guise of combating GAM had already begun to solve their old sore problems. The same Turkey, a NATO member, bomb the Kurds — potential allies of Russia, an ally of United States — Saudi Arabia has made intervention in Yemen. The rebels, with whom fights here Arab coalition led by power, as you know, closer to Iran than to the United States and their partners.
In other words, the burning wick to Middle Eastern oil barrel already offered, and Russia risks getting into the epicenter of the blast of colossal strength.
Alexander Želenin
