"Palmira, gas-and all that jazz"
Painfully slow Syria puzzle/Russia/Iran vs United States/Saudi Arabia/Qatar vs IGIL-against the backdrop of Europe and Ukraine is finally formed. It is all the same slaughterhouse for gas to the European Union and the world gas effect.
Start without long preliminaries and fine ceremonies. If you remove the Middle East chessboard shape of Bashar Al-Assad, severely hampering plans for the United States, next to West opens the possibility to lay through Syria long designed gas from Persian Gulf countries, bypassing Iran (supporting Syria)-in particular, from Qatar, whose gas about 3 times cheaper than the Russian. Russia with Qatar is in a State of profound political antipathy because of gas competition.
Qatar is funding the Syrian opposition, as Saudi Arabia and is one of the two main allies of the United States in the Middle East. Such permutations would forever liberate Europe from gas dependence vis-à-vis Russia. Syria agreed only on the same pipeline through Iran, saying the readiness to produce 600 million cubic meters of gas per day. And in this podkovërnoj game has another specific nuance: the first European country through which must pass the Qatari gas pipeline, according to the draft, became Greece. Catch the relationship between benefit EU Alliance USA/Persian Gulf and Russian support for the summer Greek riots related to the issue of a potential exit of Greece from the EU?
And because the way the military-economic Coalition United States/Persian Gulf and Syria stand IGIL-then naturally it "climbed into the bottle". And Russia-in Syria, with immediate military support. That was the reason call United States Secretary of State John Kerry head of RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY Sergei Lavrov with warnings about the consequences of such interference. Yesterday evening, after "Syrian information explosion", following the video "times on Russian troops in Syria and many photos from social networks, where Russian soldiers are memorialized in" the Syrian mission "(about 40 incidents)-international press coverage was suddenly announced a strategic decision of Germany on the agreement with Russia on the Nord Stream pipeline 2 transbaltijskomu. Gazprom has formed a unit of Europe's largest energy companies interested in supplying Russian gas to bypass Ukraine and suddenly put Germany confronted with a business proposal, from which it is difficult to refuse. This project will make Germany distribution center of Russian gas to the EU, and Russia will go from gas transit through Ukraine and save his European and world gas effect. And Germany agreed. But to do this, it is necessary to remove sanctions against Gazprom, but it still needs to push among political allies in the EU and in the United States. And now today-posted address by the President of France Francois Hollande on the possibility of lifting sanctions from Russia subject to the decisions of the Minsk-2.
Obronena has a very interesting phrase that according to Mr. Putin in private conversation with him, have been given signals that Putin would not support Assad on their own initiative. This could potentially mean draining Russia Syrian friend in Exchange for sankcionnoe relief from the United States, because Obama due to the nuclear deal with Iran, it is necessary to understand in the shortest possible time and with Syria, and with IG-blood from the nose-up defrosting Iranian monetary assets (with 100 bln dollars) in 20 days of October. Time is running out for it so that there is a chance to "trade-political" gently say Exchange implement withdrawal or partial withdrawal of sanctions from Russia in the joint interests of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION and Germany. Ardent opponents of the American President on the theme deals with Iran will turn it into a political corpse, if he is late with the timing of anti-Syrian-IGILovskoj-operation and Iran will be able to provide financial support to Syria, acting for reasons of its own gas and trade benefits. But if Russia fail to play "German version" with the lifting of sanctions, given the characteristics of the Russian "Chess" style, has a chance to stay in Syria for a long time, exposing the world to the threat of global war on terrorist Islamic State (not to mention the thousands of Russian "ihtamnetov", which will return cargo-200 in zinc coffins. Russia economically crush. This is a picture of "major strokes". The finer nuances of the issue at this moment for me is not completely obvious, but they are unlikely to understand until the end and the announcement of the outcome of the upcoming UN General Assembly.
Hence prepared in this part of the phased plan change figurants in the power of the DNI. I do not exclude that the whole story with the DNI, in General, needed to decouple the sanctions from the Crimea, for which the RUSSIAN FEDERATION was originally received them and bind them to the final terms of the talks in Minsk, which Putin has diligently progibal, and the Donbas coal is SOP for performers play used face down. Here can be attributed and the flight Motorolly from Donetsk and other rag-tag gang, and a statement of willingness to return to the Lugansk Ukraine, what we learned from the publications of the last three days.
And here she is Russian interest in the Union-resistant with Syria. Not in the maintenance of order in the Middle East is not the backup regime as such is not in the contract for the supply of weapons is not a mythical peoples ' friendship-and not even in the fight against the IGIL. The main goal is the European and world gas effect. Here's to the Russians send soldiers in Syria. On the relationship of war in Ukraine with the global economic war over gas effect too I already wrote, while some embraced the information quite skeptical. But if Qatar + United States + Saudi Arabia ousted Assad and IGIL erased from the f[для всеобщей политической поддержки этой возможности логично было бы подождать, пока ИГИЛ уничтожит памятники архитектуры, находящиеся под охраной ЮНЕСКО, а потоки беженцев и террористов хлынут в ЕС]ace of the Earth, then Europe will adopt a logical decision for himself (nothing personal-just money) to conclude a gas agreement on cheaper than Russian, Persian Gaz, going through a direct pipeline from Qatar. Thus, the Persian Gulf (gas) and United States (liquid gas) would get Europe in half, and Europe, by and large, still, who will supply its gas and pipe-only need a consistent supply and maximum acceptable price. For this "still" and its specific kind of short-sighted Europe now and paid with a straying into their territory of great number of terrorists (what is reported in the Russian and the American and European press) along with the flow of refugees. But such is the price of finding caught that Ukraine, but in a more rigid version, already experienced in fully.
At the risk of being osvistannoj, I would like to note the following. War refugees assist, of course, necessary, but is it wise to do this on emotions, guided by some of the best of intentions, not fully acceptable for emergency security measures for its nationals in connection with the apparent threat of terrorism? And a volunteer position with experience organizing donor work very hard and specific time frames and conditions (in Southeast Asia), I wanted to give readers a single anything from the Council which, as a rule, abstention: want to do good-even more so, to save somebody's life grow in himself the iron composure, because in its absence you will run like running around the innercii, flapping its wings, the headless chicken but help will not be able even to ourselves. Effectively and really efficient welcome no toothless, nor beshrebetnym. Emotions do not solve the problem-they aggravate.
In this geopolitical game Russian military-strategic alliance with Syria and Iran, American-with Qatar and Saudi Arabia-are "good" equally-and each other in terms of speculative methods of influence on the world community and civic consciousness. In its conclusions, I was reluctant to justify anyone whatsoever. I don't care whose they are, within the context of the death of hundreds of thousands of people due to section spheres of political and economic influence. The world of big-time politics and money pathologically lacks honesty, straightness and nobility. And it's fair to say that the IGIL is not generating a religious confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis is but the fruit competition Middle East economic, oil and gas potentials, as well as State political systems using trusting, poorly educated and deeply veruûŝee the population for their manipulative games with the help of religious ideas. But public propaganda ideologies based on the religious feelings of its victims, it is widely used and has been a political tool, and not only in Arab countries. Notice the sharp intensification of a very uniquely and often scandalous activities of the ROC in the past year and a half. Then she blesses, it supports, here she advises-and incidentally wants to museums, parks, land, role in the educational system, mini army Mummers in Orthodox ideas ' fans with Nazi headdresses, etc. ROC everywhere-except where it supposed to be according to article 14 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Because the time of troubles is the scattering time religious stones-and collect gems. And so historically, with the name of the Lord on his lips and under end Declaration of peace, friendship and brotherhood among peoples is happening the greatest evil on Earth.
Of course, there are still serious weight details, such as particular nuclear agreement with Iran, or small alliances of countries such as Iraq, Turkey, U.A.E., Pakistan, etc., all sorts of political lobbies and the fat shadow standby, "when the river proplyvët the corpse of an enemy" of China, but they are not so significant in terms of the final conclusions on the five-year geopolitical and global gas Castle, ending that will inevitably be war and operation where the daily break thousands of lives. And at the end of "natural selection" on the law of the jungle would be followed by 15-20 years a relatively satiated lull for all-until the next "big game". Over forty years of life the moment you watch a couple of episodes of the movie exactly. Evolution of mankind-the evolution of cynicism: "people die for metal". And I don't get tired of repeating it. And the fact that there is no great policy outside the ligament with a lot of money. Want to know where the legs grow global tragedies and wars-follow the smell of gas and oil. Yourself money does not smell.
P.s. this time I'm not going to put links to materials that relied. During the past year was more than 150-and, since the period of the Gulf war-newspaper articles, analytical and historical references, interviews politicians, reports from the Middle East countries, etc. They are all in the public domain. I deeply and equally cute dirty methods of international affairs "great uncles and aunts"-all without exception-and all that jazz. Because to know that your life and the lives of your children depend on people able to absolutely everything, out of any moral framework and moral boundaries, extremely uncomfortable.
The views of the author may not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board of the official authorities, information publications, prominent journalists, other observers and analysts, religious leaders, the secret service and even the police Vice Squad. But it is absolutely free from whose effects whatsoever, instructions, decisions and policies of the party. " As I am from the scruples of his speaking. And even if I'm wrong, building hypotheses about the current world order, wrong honestly.
Explorer of the Russian and international press Ania Dorn (Moscow, Russia)
