John Lloyd: After us the deluge. When Putin would bring RUSSIA to collapse

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Promotion of substitute prison camps and torture cellars, but not for long. Sooner or later a crisis would cause a social explosion

The most prominent Russian free-market Economist Sergei Guriev left Moscow, fearing arrest in 2013, he moved to Paris.

Guriev openly supported the opposition, criticized the policy of the authorities, was an active and ardent Liberal, both in politics and in the economy. Earlier this year he released a modern equivalent of the "Sovereign" Niccolo Machiavelli-analytical work on how ruled and retains its power modern autocrat.

Unlike the Florentine, Guriev does not recommend this style of governance and describes it. Moreover, the Russian did not believe that autocracy would benefit State-on the contrary, says that it will have devastating consequences for the country. If Guriev was mistaken about the nature of the current Russian Government, his country is waiting for a big disaster. And when Russia collapses, the whole world will shudder.

Modern "autocrat" holds regular elections (which constantly WINS), its Parliament has opposition (which, however, poses no threat) and in General in a State most of the institutions of a democratic society, such as an independent judiciary (though its independence is questionable), "free" media, and freedom of movement for citizens. Recent examples of this type may be noted autocracies of former President Alberto Fujimori of Peru, the current Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Chinese Communist Party and, of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

When Russia collapses, the whole world will shudder

Part of the media will criticize the leader of his State, will be allowed some demonstrations, and foreigners can freely enter and leave the country. Autocrat also put to jail dissidents, part razgonit any protests would expose censorship part of the publishing house, books and Web sites. However, as the regime Guriev, quite fairly live-until the authorities don't need repression.

And repression will not need only if-and this is a big "If"-"mass beliefs can be successfully manipulated through censorship, co-opting and propaganda". The most important thing is that this propaganda is not perceived as an imposition. On the contrary, people perceive it as a basis for belief in the kindness of the ruler and States themselves.

Russian-born British journalist, Arkady Ostrovsky in his book "Opening Russia writes: Russians believe that they are more ethical than Westerners is a long-standing belief, modernized and strengthened for 15 years. First of all, the Russians believe that they are better Americans-advocacy focuses not on ignorance, and the resentment, the presence of an imaginary, but powerful enemy, America, that makes people feel noble and good ".

Propaganda, tv shows and movies that relentlessly feed the sense of national importance, substitute prison camps and torture cellars. However, they cannot do so indefinitely.

Economic crash in RUSSIA triggered a decline in wages, unemployment and rising prices, but the blow was softened by a substantial reserve fund. Nevertheless, the accumulated funds progressively decreasing. Guriev believes they will be exhausted within two years. After the deluge.

The Russian President in the West, like many: United States presidential candidate from the Republican Party of Donald Trump, the French National Front leader Marie Le Pen and former first Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond said he was "largely restored Russian pride and it must be good". Putin is considered a master of tactics, ready to exploit any weakness of the West, its realism in politics allowed in Syrian chaos to endorse President Bashar Assad. Reluctantly, but the United States still have moved away from their demand for the resignation of Assad, to the Western allies to work together with Russia to concentrate on the defeat of the Islamic State is a more significant threat.

On one tactic far not enter. Putin could give America on the nose, and very strong, but what is his strategy?

Would be better if it was a deliberate, because during the leadership of Putin Russia proved to be surrounded by enemies and unreliable friends. In the West, Ukraine, divided and bankrupt, but more than ever, determined to build a European future. Above-Poland, where most influential politician is the leader of the ruling party, law and justice, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. He chose and promoted as the new Polish President Andrzej Dudu and Prime Minister Beata Šidlo. Kaczynski alleges that the truth about the death of his predecessor and brother Lech Kaczynski is still not revealed. As you know, the former President of Poland died in a plane crash near Smolensk April 10, 2010 years, and many Poles blamed in the tragedy.

To the North along the borders of the Baltic States, which, as a warning to Russia, NATO forces are located. To the South is Turkey, once a former friend of Russia, but now, after the Russian downed bomber, it is declared by the sender in the United States. To the East is China, which, according to the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the people's Congress of CHINA, "is not an ally of Russia and is not going to" form an anti-American bloc, as well as the relationship is first and foremost a business.

Moldova and Georgia are seeking to alliances with Western countries; China cares for the countries of Central Asia where more successful than Russia. And even the faithful Belarus to play safe.

But still can change for the better for Putin, especially when looking at things optimistically. Perhaps, the agreement reached between United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier this month, was based on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Eastern Ukraine, de-escalation of anti-Western propaganda, focus on finding joint projects, as well as adherence to the principles of the European Union. If so, relations between Russia, the EU and the United States can change radically.

However, this is unlikely. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Chief Judge of the Communist regime across the United States Georgy Arbatov told West: "we're going to do a terrible thing. deprive you of an enemy. And Putin's regime have worked hard to turn the tide, rekindling old animosities and by external enemies while enhancing its legitimacy. He will not allow to destroy the results of his work.

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