Post about what is happening around Ukraine and how it will affect us. And impact and faster than many people think. Close down and hide from the world, build your quiet cottage will come, because the world is too big, and we are still too small and weak. So, what are the main trends of recent months are important for us in the near future and nebližajšee time?
1. IGIL is growing and growing. If the situation in Iraq is precarious, IGIL in Syria-unpredictable, then in other countries and regions, IGIL, is growing blossoms and smells. Guys in all operate in Central Asia, trying to break in Afghanistan (though there have enemies-Taliban). Confidently lays down and in the Maghreb and in Muslim societies "black Africa".
About IGIL in South-East Asia and India I have no information, but guys will act increasingly. In doing so, they will naturally attempt to enter (and already penetrate) in all communities of Muslims in European countries. In General, the glow of HELLFIRE will intensify. Here we can expect budget increases and special services, and restrictive laws (including with respect to freedom of expression), directed against Muslim radicalism. But to blow up and kill they will be healthy. And, more importantly, extend the area of guerrilla and open hostilities.
IGIL dangerous primarily because this is the first fundamentalist sect, which create a Caliphate perceives literally as the creation of a full-fledged State. And leads actions accordingly. As well as their way of conducting the war, cheap and easy-army IGIL themselves feeding at relatively low investments. And the poor and disadvantaged, who are ready to join the ranks of their army, will all be expanded. That provides us with IRON instability in the Middle East in perspective 5-10 years, the growing tension in the Maghreb and Muslim regions of Africa as a whole, the possible infiltration of terrorists in Russia, high risk of destabilization almost the whole of Central Asia, the risk of terrorism in Southeast Asia, India and Europe.
IGIL war will take years, if not decades. And the West will push for cooperation with Iran, Turkey with great probability of destabilizing and war with the IGIL, and the Kurdish question, and even probably theocratic Saudi Arabia will have to reach out to Iran and vice versa, as "and Sho do?".
2. Invasion of migrants. And the IGIL, and a terrible economic situation, and the continuous demographic pressures increase the flow of migrants from Africa and the Middle East to Europe. 4 year war in Syria, but that now creates IGIL there greatly increased afterwards and migrants from this country. Europe has for too long been vystraivala adequate filters migration and now reaping the benefits of this. Separate note: reasonably organized migration is essential for any country and for updating the gene pool, and to replenish the country needed specialists.
In Europe there were some problems, because migration of hundreds of thousands and millions of refugees made the selection is not competitive, but situational. And now the Europeans are faced with yet chaotic movement of large numbers of people to a better life. The current movement is more like kimvrov movement and Teutons, is itself a warning. But it did not last. Even add trend to high (due to the growing population density) of dependence of migration flows from natural disasters.
Whether there will be another great migration of peoples, what the world knew already plenty? It is possible that it will be. It is already clear that it will not hike army conditional Algeria to France, it will be the uncontrolled flow of outsized poverty and human suffering, and eventually-and armed. Weapons of the world a lot. And the task for Europe, as the most vulnerable to migration in the region, will make a choice-rigidly trim is all build literate channels of accepting the right of migrants or surrender. Ukraine in this regard need to immediately provide protective barriers, which would enable our country (after the end of the war, now this and we should not wait) to build adequate ways to control migration, which we need for very many reasons.
3. Kurdish State. Worsening in the Middle East has again confirmed the issue of the establishment of the State of Kurds whose history is perhaps not less tragic than Jewish history, and the struggle for an independent State even more durable. Kurds live in Turkey, now-dilapidated Iraq, Iran and Syria. And their more than 40 million. They now have almost a unique historic chance to knock their independence at least in northern Iraq and parts of Syria.
Turkey from all the forces trying to prevent this, because Turkish Kudristan is almost 1/5 of the territory of Turkey. The Kurds have not yet been able to find a reliable ally in the West or in the East, as separatist tendencies often frighten everyone. But I would pobolel for them. And I wish the new Saladin, who, incidentally, was a Kurd.
4. China it will slow down or stop? The drama, which is SUDDENLY (as everyone in the world economy, through the eyes of a layman) launched on Chinese bourses and led to an outflow of speculative capital from China, and then to further aggravation, have prompted a lot of questions about the fate of the Chinese economic miracle. And man-made disasters.
Make any long-term predictions for the Chinese economy, I will not, because there is no required competence and expertise are not enough. But. The frenzied economic growth in China over the past 25 years was no small price. Irreparable damage to ecosystems, the poor overall quality of construction (infrastructure, industrial, civil), the incredible clutter of new megacities is all a direct path to man-made tragedies. Same thing in the net economy. China has become the most attractive market for speculative capital, as Japan, Indonesia, Korea. Each of these countries at one time suffered similar with the Chinese situation, but none of the listed countries and nearly matched in scope and influence with China.
About the social component of Chinese growth, primarily the unprecedented scale and speed of raskrest′ânivanie, appalling sanitary conditions, which does not overlap the psychologically and physically even growing revenues-and it is not necessary to speak.
In China the potential crisis is dangerous because social stability in China (still poor country with growing disparities between the rich and the poor) is the effect of "bike" which is stable while travelling (in this case). And it's very risky, indeed. But I wouldn't rush to apocalyptic predictions for China. Everything is in the hands of the Chinese leadership, and they've no time have confirmed that they are able to competently address the system tasks.
5. New leader-India? In Ukraine and in the world love to create new idols. From the politicians, from businessmen, from rock stars, and even country. Every 10 years the country appears stable "here's how to grow" and captures the minds of all and sundry. In the 50 's it was Germany, in 60-s, Japan 70-80s Japan was replaced by the "Asian Tigers" and "miracles" in Latin America (the first took off, second-burst), Indonesia was late (almost forgotten now). The highs of the last two categories ran out in 98 year. For the same reasons.
on which now inhibits China. In 2000-s all vostorgal China and actively on the case. And now the time has come to India. India already many, like China, to write in candidates for a superpower, if not in technological Giants (though now it's nothing more than a journeyman), while India is one and a half dozen points of growth. Indian economic policy does not contain any innovations, in addition to the obligatory for all developing countries and benefit reforms are remarkable people. Internal instability, conflict, contradictions of India remains. Any serious shock may well violate the integrity of the country. So no rush record India contenders for something. Internally the country even more unstable than China or Indonesia.
6. Russia in the face of deadly threats. Here's a soundly lately on Russia. The economic crisis, the exhaustion of political and economic systems, the sanctions of the West, suddenly heavy and protracted war with Ukraine, the risk of entry of a new wave of Islamic fundmentalistov-all this poses a challenge for the leadership of our neighbor's difficult choice. Therefore, Putin flies to New York. So he will negotiate and certainly agree, otherwise direct. Blitzkrieg could not have to concede. And Yes, Russia now don't fall apart (the probability of this is very low), will not collapse, will shift from aggression to defence, including from all growing threats. And, I think, if we don't give her the win internal squabbles and our active would cease to fight against their own country, they did on us guys. But Crimea will not be returned. There will have to wait. For a long time. Wait a moment and occasion to withdraw his interest.
7. Revenge Of The United States. Against the background of the take-off of China, against the backdrop of Russia's activity in the last 10 years, amid claims the EU leadership in the economic world, amid talk of the multipolarity of the world, in the context of "cowardly" (allegedly) Obama many became seem United States are not the same. Figuški. The EU cannot solve any problem without the United States. Latin America in vain thought change of the main external partner-rival with the United States to China. Technological, military, and cultural domination of America not only didn't falter, but only strengthened in the context of crisis events of the past 2 years. The gross size of the economies of China and India in no way should embarrass us. The advantage in quality, stability, resilience, ability to pursue an independent policy, play strategic games and win them the prerogative of only the United States and the Anglo-Saxon world as a whole.
8. Intellectual and technological hegemony of the Anglo-Saxon world. And here is the answer to why the guardian soon this world will remain United States and their allies. The quality of education, quality and depth of science, the power of technology companies and intellectual centres is what allows the United States to change the world, introduce technology dictate the terms and be a trendsetter. And while no one will build something similar-not throw real challenge the dominance of United States. I think I am quite clearly expressed the main condition for well-being and prosperity? To become an advanced country in the area of science and technology. At least in one segment. Instead the contractor at intermediate service work, Yes.
Here's a review. The world is unstable. Threats and points of tension in it-Massa. Chance-not less. And our task is not to be swept aside. Hide will not work. Whoever becomes Ukraine? Will remain poluob″ektom? Or did become an entity that will be able to defend themselves against threats to unite around himself? Become a partner of advanced countries? To take its place in the global division of labor as a technological power, rather than as a raw material appendage? Time will tell, tactical and strategic decisions. And our mind and exposure time.