The Kremlin's intervention in Ukraine-the beginning of the collapse of the Russian Federation. Caucasus prepare to exit. Abzazii, SOUTH OSSETIA and PFP-get ready for elimination.
About this in his LiveJournal writes Abraham Shmulevich.
About the author. Born Nikita Sergeyevich Demin, born. November 10, 1968, Murmansk.
Rabbi, political scientist, President of the Institute of Eastern partnership dealing with inter-ethnic relations, pre-crisis monitor and prevent manifestations of terrorism, in particular in the North Caucasus. Lives in. Hebron (Israel).
I do not believe that Russia will be able to attach to the Crimea.
Putin's power finally lost touch with reality.
1. Today 91-th year
2. Direct military intervention in the heart of Europe, in the case of fourteen, 50 million in the country, whose integrity is guaranteed not only customary international law, but a special treaty with the United States and England-nobody will admit.
3. Among other things, would not allow because if allowed to fly the whole system of international treaties, and begins a chain reaction of power redistribution of boundaries.
4. Turkey has special interests in the Crimea, and do not intervene it fails. A few hours after the start of open conflict Turkey has already called the Crimean Tatars compatriots.
5. The experience of the past decades, starting with the invasion of the USSR in Afghanistan, the Falkland Islands, Iraq's occupation of Kuwait and the civil war in Yugoslavia shows that in such cases at the beginning of the West operates hesitantly, long swinging-but then hits with full force.
6. The world is not yet realized what happened at Maidan-carnage in the heart of Europe with hundreds of people shot, held direct Russian intervention by Yanukovich is an unprecedented thing. When the incident came to consciousness of public opinion and politicians-the impact of this will be felt for decades. Through the same personally to Putin and Russia in General is brought back much sooner, that too will have an impact on the response to Russia's actions in Crimea.
7. Kremlin puts on the most unsuccessful shape and strength. Will not find anyone in the multi-million dollar country whom you can bet, except on the toilet a thief with apparent psychiatric deviaciâmi-it should be able to. Those forces, which puts Kremlin in Crimea over the past twenty years have proved to be a complete impotence. In addition to the bleak complaints "Putin, save us", nothing was organized, no mass movements, nor shares, nothing. Reliance on such a contingent is not conducive to the success of the operation.
8. And events in Kiev, and events in Crimea organized fantastically unprofessional. The ears of the RF stick out from the very beginning, many existing operational capacity development operations are not used, almost always selected the worst way to action, from the very beginning of time hopelessly lost, all done the most ugly way. this rebellion may not result in success.
9. So it's time to think about what will happen after the end of the adventure-and prepare for it in advance.
10. Moscow has been unable to arrange things so that the role of the Black Sea fleet remained inconspicuous. Even before the operation began, it became apparent that violated the Treaty on the presence of Russian forces in the Crimea and the BLACK SEA FLEET that used to gross interference in the Affairs of sovereign Ukraine. Therefore, even if the Kremlin now finds himself in a grain of prudence and swerve in operation-the consequences would be unavoidable. The Black Sea fleet will be banished from Ukrainian territory, that seriously change the situation in the Black Sea-Caspian region, in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.
11. If Moscow will find the strength to stop withdraw from Ukrainian territory, the effects will be limited to the withdrawal of the Black Sea fleet from Ukraine. But what the Kremlin will stop adventure-unlikely.
12. If it comes to confrontation, attempts at secession of Crimea, the implications would be as follows:
13. Expect rapid occurrence or Association of Ukraine with the EU and NATO, until the troops of the Alliance in Ukraine. A few hours after the start of open conflict for the first time the EU had advocated offering Ukraine prospects of membership.
14. The Baltic States, Belarus, the countries of the southern Caucasus and Central Asia to pull back from the Russian Federation.
15. Sanctions and, even more so. war, cause a fatal blow to the economy of the Russian Federation. Hardware is likely overthrow Putin or a mass revolution.
16. Moscow will not be able to fund in the same amount of national elite, primarily Caucasian regions the economic situation there will worsen dramatically, there is a powerful movement for secession from Russia.
17. Separatism of national regions and regional separatism, Russians, themselves will receive systematic support by various external forces East, West and South.
18. West before those events considered Moscow as a stabilizing force, primarily in the North Caucasus, and acknowledged the existence of special interests in the post-Soviet space. This will be done away with. Major world players to Russia will continue as a dangerous, unpredictable and destructive force, and will begin the hard politics of her squeezing …
19. With respect to the Northern Caucasus Moscow power begins to be seen as the power of junk that the horrific human rights violations, leading to destabilization and the emergence of Islamic extremism.
20. To begin searching and construction of local political forces that can ensure the development of the North Caucasus as a politically independent from Moscow territory, creating stable political power and carrier not a threat to the West and Turkey.
21. Then the pressure on Moscow to start using all possible levers of economic sanctions until political and tacit military support to armed resistance, which will lead to Russia's North Caucasus with care.
22. The operation to separate Crimea Moscow uses the same methods and political technologies, used in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and TRANSDNISTRIA. The similarities are too striking. So far regarding those entities had an understanding that it's not just a smokescreen for the Russian occupation. but the expression of the will of the indigenous lands. Continue this attitude will be forgotten. Their liquidation will be considered as a guarantee of the non-use of these methods in the future, and they will only be considered as potential footholds for further aggression of the Kremlin, located on illegally occupied land. Therefore, public education will begin to be seen as completely illegal and unwanted, moreover, threatening world order. From the West and Turkey will begin work to eliminate them.
23. In addition, around Ukraine will affect the situation in the far East, around the Kurils, it is possible to update the issue of Sakhalin and Kaliningrad.
24. Steps will be taken for the ouster of Putin personally.
25. The West hardly will begin designing or support at the initial stage of the forces inside Russia itself, calling for the overthrow of the Kremlin regime as such, a fundamental change in the system of power in Russia. However, if such forces appear, and you can make a threat to the power of the Kremlin, they have a chance to get serious support.