Press Conference of the President of the country is without exaggeration the political event not only of Russian, but also on an international scale. The country under the sanctions. The country is fighting on foreign territory. Country, including during the press conference, announced that will cruise missiles all over 4500 kilometres, international observers and analysts very intently listened to the President.
FIGURES FUN
Special event because it, unlike other public events not all been credited with papers prepared by experts. Direct speech, intonation and improvisation gives a much deeper and prognostičnoe understanding. This time the President has confined itself to neat reading summaries of Rosstat. The figures are mostly adequate, but picked up a specific way.
Generally the figures at a press conference there were a few interesting observations. For example, the President announced that in the economy we have, in principle, all is well if not for one reason — oil prices. In reply to a question, accusing the President in creating for 15 years of his reign unacceptable system in the country, he acknowledged that the unacceptable occurs, saying: "not only are these results achieved for 15 years. It means that these results it actually confirmed. So what's the result? That economy operates abroad. And what about sovereignty?
Other outcomes — he said the TB doubled GDP. But if GDP remove the increased oil prices and tricks with filling his deval′virovannym ruble, there is no development in the country actually was not. Puffed up by oil vapor and oil prices balloon eyes blown off. If not for the deval′vacionnyj trick, the budget would not have collapsed at 10-20% deficit relative to their income, as is the case now, and at 30-40% with the consequences.
The President is very aware that the pension index for next year only for non-working pensioners. Pensions three times less inflation occurring today. By the way, President Putin cannot imagine that everything that happens to inflation was his own hands and the hands of the Central Bank during the devaluation of the ruble. A ruble devaluation made them because built for 15 years, the economic system is nesuverennaâ, export-commodity system, balance externally run the country through oil prices, volumes and unfolding before the eyes of the embargo. In particular, in Europe, ousting Russian oil reinforced claims to quality — "zaserivaniû" Russian oil (very distinctive term). Canceled pensions for working pensioners, cancel the payment at all coming for them pensions and raising the retirement age. The President apparently unaware.
He said the GDP growth, but these figures (0.1%) mean only — the pace of decline in GDP terms, year to year, which is a few percent is not mentioned, and here the tenths of a percent growth in month-to-month is given for GDP growth. Yourself whether deceiving President? It does cheat? Or, it is important that all they are cheating the population? The question remains behind the scenes.
If the President has rightly announced that investments in the country dropped by 5.7%, from where he then takes the forecast on GDP growth in 2016, 2017, 2018, a few per cent up to 2.4%? There are absolutely rigid connection between investment in fixed assets and GDP growth. For recession investment will necessarily decline of GDP, if again there will be no manipulative tricks with the price of oil or with a substantial devaluation that beats, especially on the level of living of the population, according to his income.
The President did not impute Rosstat figures become that real wages this year fell by 9.3%, 30% of organizations in Russia unprofitable, manufacturing (year to year) fell by 5.3%. It is said about the growth of agricultural production at 3%. Yes. This is the merit of our Lord, God, after being presented to favourable climatic conditions and the hucksters who took on the export a significant proportion of government stocks of grain. Engaged in this work, including affiliated with some members of the Russian Government, commercial structures.
The President in no way commented on double-digit inflation that is three times more than planned by him and his Government for this year. And certainly not explained that inflation is not monetary, and deval′vacionnaâ, have made with their own hands.
The President repeated his message to the Federal Parliament on the demographic success. Only he did not read out the data of Rosstat that 8.2% of the decrease in the number of births in the country, and the number of deaths grew by 12.1%. President pleased with natural population growth, but did not mention figures. And the figures are as follows: in the year 2014 natural increase amounted to 27.2 thousand to 146-Ty million population in 2015 year — fell in 4 times — up to 6.9 million people. Needless to say, that these successes on the noise level and statistical error? And those — fell?
THE CENTRAL BANK POLICY AND CA GOVERNMENTS SELECT/PRIORITISE I APPROVE AND SUPPORT
Started a press conference. Putin with that expressed bewilderment: "what else to talk about? All is said in the message. But this is not true, because the message did not mention the Donbass, on economic and domestic policy. At a press conference this deficiency he still filled.
There were two issues at the Conference that the journalistic profession up to 1000 people supported the nesrežissirovannymi applause. Dwell on them.
The first question about monetary policy, the policy of the Central Bank of Russia, which is expressed in the stifling monetary turnover, nesuverennom ruble currency exchange rate formation mechanism of the ruble and a rude overpriced refinancing rate, which is also choking credit, investment and economic development of the country. Journalists are not experts in the field of finance and economics, but even they agreed in its mass, realize how ongoing Central Bank monetary policy was inadequate and destructive. A strange impression, but the President saw this solidarity, said it by making a replica of: "well, Yes. Stormy and prolonged applause ".
Russian experts have long showed that Russian inflation is not monetary, demonetizaciâ is the main factor of stagnation and nesuverennosti of national finance and economy. But the President does not want to understand it. It is obvious from his answer that he really does not understand the nerutinnoj of matter. He said a market management of the Central Bank of Russia refinance rate. He said that it was impossible to take such administrative decisions. He probably does not know exactly what administrative way Russia's Central Bank decides on the key rate, which is the starting point for all interbank rates and commercial loans. This is precisely the administrative State regulatory mechanism.
Clearly, the President said that he believes the Central Bank's actions are correct, he supports them, as well as the Government considers satisfactory. It is striking, because the level of fallacy and destructiveness of the Central Bank of Russia, the helplessness of the Government and the nesuverennosti of the country's economy, which he created for 15 years of his reign were beyond debate. It is absolutely indisputable, clear to any objective and individual things.
Demonstration of misunderstanding an important matter is not the first time. In the year 2013 to direct telelinii the President said quite explicitly that there is no reduction of oil prices in the coming years, the wait is not necessary, because the price of oil is determined by the balance of supply and demand, and Saudi Arabia is not advantageous to lower oil prices. This allegation the President has indeed installation on further syr′evizaciû and èksportizaciû of the Russian economy.
Today, having started his press conference, he did not recall those settings and endorsing the strategy of the Government and the Central Bank, however, said that all our plans, including budget plan, assumed the cost of oil prices. Stop! Attention! The cost of oil prices is determined by the world market conditions, specifically the United States Americas and FED the speculative game on the increase-decrease at appropriate bourses with the unlimited dollar capital, which the FED prints in any volume. In fact, the President acknowledged that scheduling the Russian economy, based on prices at 100 dollars it put before the threat of collapse during collapse of oil prices to 50 dollars happened.
In the next step the President confirms the faithfulness of this nesuverennoj strategy, saying that the price of oil falls below planned and today she is already approaching 30 dollars. That means, he said, will have to adjust and State budget indicators of the Russian economy. More open evidence of the Summit that the President confirms the strategy of nesuverennoj economy and finance is hard to imagine.
Explanation of third-party analytics may include two options. The first is the President really, without appropriate education and conscientious of competent and professional experts is mistaken and did not understand the basic contradictions of the built system, its gubitel′nosti for the country's economy. The second explanation is awful, because such a stubborn reproduction years (in the background the frankly izdevatel′skogo example 2014-2015 as a from outside assails Russian economy) the same decisions may indicate that fifth column in the system works, and it's stronger than either the President, or include it as a leader. This conclusion should not from personal taste sensations and relationship to person, and from a full comprehensive logic explanation of observed variations of the situation and the most authoritative, firsthand evidence of the President of the country.
The critical statement that Putin is not going to change anything: the Government is working satisfactorily, the Central Bank, he, too, supports and nurtures people. And I wanted to hear, does he mean serdyukova, skrynnik, Seagull and Ministers, provalivaûŝih construction, space launches of military satellites, import substitution, health care reform, leading to increased mortality, and education reform, leading to a catastrophic decline in the quality of graduates from schools and universities and the loss of Russian Science and industry innovation capacity.
The President confirmed that after 15 years of his rule political regime takes a hard-line conservative stance. This means that hope for rectification of obvious errors. Economics and politics of the country eventually will remain largely non-sovereign and not demonstrating any chance of intensive development, modernization and growth of material production. Ahead, on the basis of this finding, only continued degradation in all directions.
JUNTA IN PRIVATIZED STATE
Very important was another issue supported by applause from the audience. And he was equally embarrassing for the President because the concealed the main neural node information request to the President: "what system is built for 15 years, and whether it is her pimp?". This was the question about the "Vinokurova our elite carriers" and the fact that nesmenâemaâ the ruling political grouping is reproduced in the second generation, the children of the leaders. General political science language this type of Government called the corporate State, but we have to introduce a new concept: "privatized State." Close to this situation and still includes terminology this definition as a "junta". Of course, no democracy, no political rotation and sorevnovatel′nost′û in such a system does not smell. The President has just confirmed this, saying that any changes do not need to wait.
Strange were the reasoning of the President regarding the conflict with "Plato". He said that all 100% of fees go into the road fund, and nothing in his pocket Rotenberga truckers are not paid. But immediately declared that the country's budget of 10 billion rubles will be paid at the firm, where Pocket Rotenberga and registered. Maybe he doesn't know that the country's budget and the budget of the road fund is the stuff of one category, it means tax origin who actually are in one bottle? And fill this bottle truckers from his salary, reducing it by a quarter?
If 10 billion rubles from the budget are taken out by then, as 50 billion invested there by truckers, that means, on the road have not 50 billion, given the deficits and budget on subsidising many chains, including the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation. In game terms here. The main question is on what basis the violated law on toll roads and legislation on concession activity, in which the private concessionaire builds roads, and no system of collecting taxes and receives remuneration from the concession of budget (which very surprisingly) by fees from maintenance of roads?
Of course, it's not just super corrupt scheme this scheme within the very latest model of privatized State, when the family, relatives, friends and acquaintances included in beneficiaries of public resources without any contest and without any remorse. This is true not only of Plato. It concerns the construction of a bridge in Crimea and large projects of Gazprom, behind which lie the same family circles. Not random replica of one of the truckers after the press conference: "there remains only SOAP rope throw her first children, and then".
CONVERSATION IN THE BATH UNDER THE BEER
The most important topic raised Ukrainian journalist and other concerns of the country's foreign policy. Confirmed the position of the non-recognition of the actions of the Russian side in the Ukraine in a way that is obvious to all. Again it is said that there is no regular troops. What do supposedly vacationers or retroactively retired from the armed forces of the army, the Russian Government allegedly doesn't care. "Reaffirming the commitment of the Minsk accords", which means that the "Russian world" in Ukraine (and anywhere else) may well be justified to forget about Russia-mother. Mother Russia is more important partners in Kiev.
The crucial revelation, finally arrived on the Syrian-Turkish lines. Diagram reproduced personal personal position, which had previously been formed regarding Saakashvili and relations with Georgia. "Saakashvili for today-Georgia" is "Erdogan-Turkey. Position demonstrates how Russian, including foreign policy, monopolized and stânuta to the views of a single person, to his emotional state and psychological construct of personality.
Erdogan was a friend, and it was all good. Suddenly Mr. Erdogan has ceased to be a friend, and all became ill. Whether nuclear power foreign policy built on such grounds? The President thinks he can. IN THE. Putin believes that can separate "Erdogan and hardworking kind people of Turkey, where it has many partners. But then why this people shall be punished with sanctions? Why the country unfolded antitureckaâ hysteria, which told journalists? Why, finally, these sanctions are hitting more on the Russian side, stopping the entire Russian plants, destroying the fate of blended families, covering scientific library centers? Those questions hung in the air and silence in the answers is actually a response: "features one character form the foreign policy of Russia. This fact and the fact very dangerous both for our country and for other States.
It's amazing to hear the President, when he starts to think aloud about strategies on the Syrian track. "And do we need military base there or not needed? I do not know. It is necessary to think. Or may not need …, "says the President. The question of military deployment on distant distances, countries have not resolved and is not intended as a strategy. Raises the natural continuation of the thought: "in General, there is a foreign policy strategy or not? Especially if it is all built around improvisation on the theme "do we need a base there? We any our get cruise missiles at ranges of up to 4500 kilometres. How interesting these words received in the radius of 4500 kilometers of all States without exception, including allies, yet the country has not managed to quarrel, to scare and disperse them?
Whether or not the President so casually and in such style, to make such statements? This is not a conversation in the bath under the beer. This public statement by the President of nuclear power for peace.
Here I am for the first time obliged to formulate the main conclusion of the analysis of this press conference. The main problem in Russia is Putin himself. Putin becomes dangerous not only for the development of its own country but for the world. Effects of Russia are waiting for immediate tightening: its isolation, still reserved development techniques economic blockade type oil embargo and isolation loop closures in Central Asia and the far East.
ELEPHANT IN A CHINA SHOP
Striking as their hands the President forms a new threat to our country, and against this backdrop, issues a revelation on the Syrian vector, which we have long predicted. It turns out that "our plan in Syria coincides with the plan of the United States. It is particularly interesting to hear Bashar Assad, who invited Russia to support and defend his regime and statehood of Syria, which with the legitimate regime. But Russia now contends that its plan does not differ from American, which just made it clear that the role and place of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria's political future are missing.
Systemically it repeats "Minsk agreement." Then, too, was the official address of the legitimate President Yanukovych and then Kiev regime was "partner". The President reiterated that he supported military means military opponents (!) Bashar Assad — Free the Syrian army. He talks about a political settlement of the Syrian Constitution, elections, but this is exactly the plan, which all this time implements the American coalition. Then there is a reasonable question: "why Russia does not immediately entered Syria at the side of the Western coalition?". The answer is no. The answer can only be that the Russian foreign policy has no strategy, no reliability, and there are improvisations and "šarahaniâ", which is apparently once again can only be explained by peculiarities of monopolizirovavšej these solutions shape. But it appears the same as awareness of this figure and its readiness for a responsible foreign policy is at an unacceptable level, and the President himself spoke about it during a press conference.
Explaining the conflict with Armenia and Turkey, it is very uninhibited manner, apparently without realizing how it strips the Russian position, remarked that "even did not hear" about the presence of turkomanov in the contiguous territory to Turkey. Of some "our Turkomans (?) he heard. Although explain why Turkmen our could not.
Remember the revelation President in Valdai speech when he said that the entering of air-shock group in Syria, asked the Western coalition objectives, which should have been otbombit′. "But the West refused," the President said then. Then we asked West what, in his opinion, there is no need to bomb. West and then denied, "testified then. "And what do you do?" he asked.
From this last passage suggests that starting bombing, Russia had no goals. Then it bombed? Well, in General, it is clear who is partly IGIL and much of the political and military opponents of the Assad-Syrian army-free. The, which now turns out to be military support. Here the important fact that starting a war, the Russian side did not have notions about the theater, about the case, the complex with ties to military interests, including major military power in Turkey. Generally this is referred to as "elephant in a China shop".
Once again, the President announced that did not hear what is going on there. But bombed and bombed. Who bomb? Elevators? Bakeries? Wastewater treatment plant? All this is called nefteperabatyvaûŝimi, IGIL objects plants for sale oil smuggling and terrorists revenue. It all sounds very frankly, very irresponsibly and very provocative.
Surprise President calls that none of Turkey it is not called and not explained. But Russian intelligence? And Russian diplomacy? And Russian Science, which should reinforce foreign stocks, especially when talking about putting troops and military operations? From this story is the President openly and frankly derived evidence of unprofessional, irresponsible, unpredictability and unreliability of Russian foreign policy.
The President understands that Bashar Assad might not enjoy that just as in Donbass, supporting the first phase of all humanitarian, financial and military means militia, its actually betray. Bashar Assad to be this fate, as the Press Conference clearly stated by President Putin.
GIFTS OF THE DEFEATED ENEMY?
Many commentators believe that this policy of putting the initial position is the gifts of the West, which should relieve the tension and eventually lead to the main purpose for which Putin and Syrian initiative to restore the Western vector of the country's relations with the West and easing of sanctions against Russia. It seems to me that it is absolutely vain hope.
West graciously accepts these gifts because it grants the defeated enemy. He didn't even said "thank you" for it because everything is going according to his plan. And these plans can be read clearly the final finishing a crusade against Russia after the defeat of the Soviet Union in 1991, the year when this defeat contributed to the internal political grouping of Gorbachev and company and shaken the socio-economic and political instability. The plan clearly is enabled now for Russia, its duration is planned to be about the same — about 5 years. Start the last time began in 1985 year. This time — in the year 2014.
The role of the political factions, which destroys the country from the inside this time belongs to the gang. Putin. And why, in gratitude for the voluntary services of Putin the West must abandon this line? The last time he gladly took a treacherous campaign of Gorbachev to withdraw troops, the reduction of armaments and military equipment and the transfer of entire marine regions in the far east of the country. Today is almost the same.
And the main conclusion of the press conference, I again: "the main and very dangerous problem for Russia is the Putin, that this political regime monopolized public acceptance of administrative decisions to the abilities and capabilities of one person. These abilities and capabilities do not match the professional mandate and responsibility of the first head of State.
This conclusion should not be construed as a call to fight against Putin and the regime requirements somewhere to put it. It is obvious that the elected President under the current Constitution is valid and will work a number of years. But it also follows, that the country should attack comprehension, professional and sustainable impact and the formation of a national consciousness is clear in this regard. Legitimate constitutional ways for a country to realize specified risk and prepared to withdraw it, to improve its political and human system enclosure, enough, so it is necessary to deeply obeskuraživšis′ such an eye-opener, thank the President for what it gives firsthand a completely reliable evidence for the above conclusions. The conclusion should do and professional expert political community of the country. The extent of the threat posed by the political regime, becomes far from harmless.
Stepan Sulakšin
