A look into the future of the disintegration of Russia

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Many articles are full of reasons and factors that may lead to the disintegration of Russia on a conglomerate of States. There is no consensus, how long will Russia in terms of the socio-economic crisis and, in the case of deepening existing sanctions. This is not the USSR politburo which supported the existence of a socialist State with its system of political and ideological values and economic way of life thanks to the partial international isolation. In conditions incorporated into the system of market relations, whose economy has pronounced the commodity export-oriented nature, deepening international isolation is death. Economic sanctions sooner or later will awaken latent separatist tendencies in the constituent entities of the Federation.

It is often said Russia is not Yugoslavia, it has nuclear weapons and no it is not cool. And where all commenced in the same Yugoslavia in 1991? It all began not with the NATO military operation, and with demonstrations and rallies for independence in Slovenia and Croatia, which after the Suppression of the Serbian elite escalated into armed resistance is not without support from overseas. When a popular idea. Gorbachev on the establishment of the Commonwealth of independent States (RESS), despite the existence of the State sovereignty of the RSFSR declared the Komi ASSR, Byelorussian SSR, Udmurt and Yakut-Sakha ASSR, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Adyghe AO, Buryat ASSR, Bashkir ASSR, the Kalmyk ASSR, Mari ASSR, Chuvash ASSR, Yamalo-Nenets, Gorno-altaysk cs, Irkutsk region. In the midst of the first years of the existence of an economically unstable RUSSIA after the collapse of the Soviet Union, political fermentation took place not only in Moscow ("Oktyabrsky" 1993 putsch) and Chechnya (first Chechen war 1994-96), but also in other parts of the country is abandoned, whose territory stretches "from the southern seas to the polar region». Hardly anyone remembers the centrifugal tendencies of beg. 90-ies. in the Urals and Siberia. And if the rich Tatarstan the Kremlin managed to agree, by the expansion of autonomy, in case of the self-proclaimed Republic of the Urals, South-Ural Republic, upper Kuban Cossack Republic, Republic of Karelia, Moscow raised a question in edgewise. Not to mention the fact that, in the context of existing sanctions, centrifugal tendencies began to slip in Siberia, Don and the Kaliningrad region.

Think of it as not worth the indulgence towards separatism. But if RUSSIA succeeded in provoking separatism in Crimea and Donbass during political instability in Ukraine, if managed to push the separatist regimes on the territory of Georgia and Moldova to beg. 90-x, so why the economic collapse of RUSSIA cannot be a catalyst for its fragmentation into many States? Even more than its constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account the factors of ethnic čerespolosicy and sub-optimum main explored and unexplored deposits of natural gas, oil and other minerals. Although Russia is a country where the ethnic composition includes 193 nation, not counting Russians of different religion and degree of integration in the industrial society, the dominant motive for the disintegration of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION, is likely to become an economic factor. When the flow of subsidies from the central budget will be more modest, and the level of depression in individual regions (especially the far East) reaches the boiling point, then part of the economic elites of constituent entities of the Russian Federation is aware that it is easier to get rid of the yoke of international sanctions by secession from the Russian Federation. De jure, novoispečënnoe State is not responsible for the sins of the Kremlin and respectively to enter into political and economic interaction with other actors in international relations. That's just the process of disintegration of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION may be more painful than divorce with Moscow Soviet republics in Belovezhskaya Pushcha. In addition to the confrontation with Moscow State-controlled security forces, local elites come into confrontation among themselves in the struggle for the establishment of ethnic boundaries and redistribution of natural resources. May be protracted armed conflicts in which all types of weapons. Perhaps even nuclear weapons, if the situation will too far. To prevent the latter, the remnants of RUSSIA's nuclear arsenal must be withdrawn on bilateral agreements between the major centres of power and answer modes of States or by pressure first in case of refusal of the past.

As a result, in the territory of the former Russian conglomerate appears new States that perform different economic functions:

-Commodity export-oriented Statethat in order to survive on their own or through JOINT VENTURE with the West or CHINA will develop to export existing and undiscovered deposits of oil, natural gas, and other minerals.

-State tranzitëry, located in the path of the former domestic oil and gas pipelines and transport corridors, which due to deficiency or absence of natural resources would replenish its budget at the expense of transit of energy resources and the provision of transport services (rail, ports).

-Agricultural and agro-industrial, industrial States located in regions with favorable climatic conditions or with the advanced production and processing infrastructure will core activities on exports of finished products to foreign markets and for the needs of the many neighbors.

In the midst of the breakup of Russia, neighbouring countries introduce an opportunity to resolve long-standing territorial disputes. The most realistic in those circumstances, the return of the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin in Japan. Also possible territorial claims by China in the border regions of the Russian Far East and Siberia. Occurs, the script return to the composition of the SOVIET annexation of Finland in 40-ies. border territories into Georgia coastline from Tuapse to Sochi, and gifts. Stalin RSFSR, at the dawn of the Soviet Union. The Kaliningrad region will have two scenarios. Or East Prussia is reintegrated into the part of Germany or will exist as the new Baltic State integrated in the European Union. Section Arctic territories will be implemented according to the principle of a median line between Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway, and have access to the Arctic Ocean States on the territory of the former RUSSIAN FEDERATION, in the presence of international recognition. Not to mention the fact that RUSSIA supported separatist education including Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Transnistria, as well as the Crimea etc. n. «Ship» would be returned to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, respectively, with the use of military force or not. In the absence of external military support, these separatist regimes will not be capable of prolonged military action. Russian military bases and armed groups would be withdrawn from the territory of the former USSR countries and the separatist formations. More difficult situation arise in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), where confrontation between Azerbaijanis and Armenians continue even regardless of the presence of Russia in the Caucasus. It is not excluded that Azerbaijan will strengthen the political and military cooperation with Turkey and Armenia with Iran.

In the case of the dissolution of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION on a conglomerate of independent States qualitatively change the balance of power in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Eurasia, about which so many say Russian analysts as a new form of educational integration in post-Soviet countries led by Russia, no relation to the later does not. Eurasia is a separate continent, which includes European and Asian States. Post-Soviet space it just patches of different regions for many centuries, Russian rulers trying to clumsily sew among themselves and come up with a beautiful name (Russian Empire, USSR, CIS, the Russian Federation, Customs Union). In fact, except artificially created linkages data regions nothing connects. Therefore, an important point to prevent the revival of Russia as a center of power, even in the form of a Confederation, is to create the conditions under which the novoispečënnye States shall promote, on a bilateral basis for political and economic dialogue with neighbouring countries and integration entities, including the EU, China, as well as Turkey, Japan and Iran. We are talking about the granting of preferential trade and economic conditions postrossijskim States and to conclude bilateral agreements with them in the field of security.

The most realistic implementation of this scenario in the territories of the Asian part of Russia, in Siberia and the Russian Far East, bordering China. On the one hand, China will become a major market for new States and partner for development of promising oil and gas deposits, other mineral deposits that lead to unilateral export dependence and unlimited demographic expansion of the Chinese side. On the other hand, being in the fairway China, will allow the new Member States has finally achieved the final development of the vast territory from the far East to the Ural mountains, create the necessary infrastructure for life and additional jobs. States of Siberia and the far East will increase the well-being of its citizens, freed from the need to carry out payments in Moscow.

More difficult situation arise in the redistribution of influence in the European part of Russia, which can be divided into three blocks of prospective States:

-The territory of the Russian North to Stavropol, Krasnodar region, Northern Caucasus and the Volga region, Ural mountains ("the new Eastern partnership). On the idea of the geographical proximity of those States to European civilization should become the keystone to integration into the EU and NATO. On the other hand, Europe is not interested in the flow of migrant workers from the European part of Russia, in mind oversaturation of the labour market in the EU. The release is not a market for the EU, which is saturated with industrial products of European manufacturers. The scope of mutual interests can become energy transit from the Volga region and in the EU, as well as joint ventures with European companies, designed to export finished products to the markets of third countries that are not EU members. It makes sense to implement the development of port infrastructure on the coast of the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Ocean to the maximum possible use of the Northern sea route.

-The territory of the Volga region to Siberia. Referring to the geographical proximity and similarity in economic specifics of these States formally would be assigned to the Central Asian region. In addition to the production and export of natural gas, additional income of these countries would be processing and re-export of Kazakhstani oil, due to the availability of appropriate infrastructure in Bashkiria and Tatarstan. Together with the countries of Central Asia, these States would become an object of interest of China and Western countries because of its energy potential. It is possible that the place of Russia in Central Asia would try to divide between a Turkey and Iran. An additional factor for interaction of new States with the countries of Central Asia would need to combat drug trafficking from Afghanistan, curbing Islamist movements, who represent the opposition secular regimes.

-Territory, including Stavropol, Krasnodar region and the North Caucasus would be subjected to the interests of Turkey, because of the geographical proximity and the blue stream gas pipeline from southern Russia under the Black Sea to the Anatolian coast. At the same time, it is not excluded that this group of new States would be analogous to the Balkans on the ruins of the former Russia. It is possible that in the context of ethnic čerespolosicy destabilizing role play local Russian Cossacks, who declare their own Republic "to secede from the North Caucasian answer to States. Not to mention the likelihood of escalation of frozen conflicts among the various peoples of the Northern Caucasus, which challenged a number of territories. Likely escalation of the Ingush-Ossetian conflict, the disintegration of the ethnically pelts in Dagestan on several territorial entities. On this background not excluded new impetus in the development of Islamic extremism, illegal arms trafficking, drug trafficking in the Northern Caucasus, posing new threats to the security of neighbouring Caucasian States, including Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Despite the apparent at first glance, this fantastic script more rational than regime change in. Putin to power Russian ultra-nationalists or Communist revanšistov who wouldn't mind to bring to fruition the Romanov Dynasty or implement plans and. Stalin concerning the territorial expansion of the Russian State. Scenario the collapse of Russia in various States and the disintegration of the former Soviet Union are perceived mostly through his fingers, and the idea of w. Brzezinski, who was one of the first to consider fragmentation of Russia, are considered a utopia. However, it is not considered whether utopian possibility of armed conflict in Russia and Ukraine and nurturing Russian separatism in Crimea and Donbass? Was not considered whether the utopia that the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia? And can be considered a manifestation of pragmatism and common sense valdajskuû speech. Putin, in which the game without rules in terms of Mythology kremlëvskimi analysts lack of rules of the game in modern international relations? And if the Kremlin had concluded that Russia may wish to redraw the post-Soviet map similar to change political regimes in the Middle East by the United States, this means that Russia can become fragmented just as well on a conglomerate of States. And if Washington has limited itself to the Kosovo precedent, the regime. Putin has created a lot of international precedents (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, DNI, LNR, Crimea) to implement the most sophisticated scenarios, the dismemberment of the territory of the Russian Federation. After all, in the view of the Russian political elite in contemporary international relations no rules of the game. Now in power in the United States and Europe peace doves. And who will ensure that over the next few years on election win are supporters of more rigid forms of dialogue with Russia, from a position of strength and blackmail against the background of the effects of the crisis phenomena in the socio-economic sphere and the growing fears in the European and American society in the face of Russian expansion. Especially if economic sanctions are not delayed a RUSSIAN wearing down for one year. And in terms of influence in Russia the power block, defense industry costs will remain the same. Because now is the time "to collect stones. (A) matters related to the welfare of its own citizens and investing in regional development perspective tomorrow. While Russia's political elite still entertains himself thought about the patience of the Russian people need to understand that any patience limit comes. It is unlikely that the business elite regions will suffer falling profits within the next 5-10 years. In the face of changing market economy business priorities change quickly. If things go badly in the face of a United and indivisible Russia, why not get out of it? Prerequisites for this were laid by the Kremlin since the annexation of the Crimea and the armed aggression in Donbass.

George Kukhaleyshvili, HVYLYA

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