Valery Fedotov: in Kiev the fate not only of Ukraine
"The mutiny may not result in success,
Otherwise, his name is otherwise ".
In early January, I assumed that the technology of "peaceful non-violent protests," has stopped working. Putin and Volodinym demonstrated his colleagues — other leaders of countries with "fragile democracy" is how to respond to hundreds of thousands of peaceful protesters on the streets of the capital (not to go forward, although for the time being and did not disperse, simultaneously increasing repressive legislation and rigidly opposing any attempt by protesters "to go for the check boxes"). And those with pleasure began to use the proposed counter technology: follow Russia through failed "Orange Revolution" has already passed Turkey, Ukraine and Thailand.
However, nothing good is not — I continued further, because the disgruntled power will always, in any State. But if they will not have a chance to bring about change in his country nor the election, neither through peaceful protests, the only thing they will remain — traditional violent revolutions and coups.
Literally 2 weeks have passed, and this prediction began to come true. What is happening now in the center of Kiev can be called whatever you like, but certainly no longer peaceful protest. Burning buses, hackneyed "berkut" fighters, exploding grenades, water cannons, tear gas, persistent reports that someone had lost a hand, someone struck her head, etc.
Than all the end until it is unclear. But almost certain: in Kiev the fate not only of Ukraine.
If the current "attack of desperation" protesters will end, and Yanukovich will continue tightening the screws on the Russian or Belarusian style, we will have to wait for the strengthening of authoritarian regimes worldwide: from Southeast Asia to South America, from post-Soviet to Arab countries. Information in the modern world is spreading rapidly, and looking at Ukraine, all realize: power may actually not be afraid even a million disgruntled in the Centre of the capital. You can suppress all.
If, on the contrary, today's Kiev unrest escalated into a full-scale revolution, in the coming years, the world will have to wait for the era of Molotov cocktails and the baseball bit. So far, they say, on Maidan stood peacefully, anything they have not worked. And once crossed for decisive action, power faltered. Here's how to proceed.
Can't even figure out which of the two options does not suit me more. :(